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The Actuary Lens

A postcode contains several different risks

Location combines several mechanisms that need separate testing.

The executive takeaway

Geographic differences may capture several distinct risk mechanisms.

Different exposures need different location evidence

Conceptual framework. Match each mechanism to where the vehicle is exposed.

Where the vehicle is kept

Home, overnight parking and other parked locations.

  • Theft and vandalism exposure
  • Weather and flood exposure
  • Parking environment

Where the vehicle travels

The roads, conditions and times of its journeys.

  • Road layout and traffic
  • Weather along the route
  • Time and amount of travel

Weather can affect a parked or moving vehicle. A home address and a collision location describe different exposures.

What geography does the released evidence cover?
Road outcomes
County / unitary authority · published
Weather
Country · published
Vehicle crime
Police force area · published
Flood hazard
Lead local flood authority; England; snapshot only · published

Different geographic scales and denominators need to be reconciled before combining them. This visual does not show fitted risk weights or a measured pricing improvement.

Keep in mindCollision location is not the policyholder’s home exposure or an insurer price factor.

What supports this view?

Established: Public road data describes events and traffic where they occur.

Evidence to change the assessment: Reassess after decomposed geographic features improve later, held-out claims.

Evidence dates & releaseEvidence published 2 Oct 2026
Evidence period
2016–2025The time measured. Publication and event dates appear with the individual sources.
Assessment changed
Change date unavailable in this releaseLast recorded material change to the insurance assessment.
Explainer changed
Change date unavailable in this releaseLast recorded change to its evidence or explanation. A routine source check does not reset it.
Source checks
22 Sept 2026 – 26 Sept 202624 of 24 sources have a check date in this release. These dates describe inspection, not new evidence.

Approved evidence published 2 Oct 2026This topic, its downloads and linked Data Lab views use the same selected release.

Inspect the sources and their dates
Read the explanation, evidence and limitations

A postcode contains several different risks

Location can conceal road use, environment and other hazards. Separating those mechanisms makes geographic differences easier to understand and test.

Established: Public road data describes events and traffic where they occur.

Developing: Combining carefully aligned evidence can explain more of the geographic pattern.

Still uncertain: Collision location is not the policyholder’s home exposure or an insurer price factor.

What changed in the evidence?

Insurance implication

Geographic differences may capture several distinct risk mechanisms.

Current response: Test

Watch next: Reassess after decomposed geographic features improve later, held-out claims.

Collision location is not the policyholder’s home exposure or an insurer price factor.

Released sources

Download the underlying released evidence