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STATS19 DATA LAB · GREAT BRITAIN
Police-reported injury collisions in Great Britain · geographic history 2016–2025 · record analysis 2021–2025
Retrospective persistence is not evidence of insurer pricing lift.
Charts displayed; exact values remain available with each chart.
Selected comparison: Injury collisions per 100,000 motor miles
Great Britain county / unitary authorities. Groups are frozen using discovery outcomes; later groups use ranks among eligible paired authorities. These summaries describe ordering and coverage, not ranking certainty. A national fall in rates can leave ranks unchanged.
The highest discovery group exceeds the lowest in 4 of 4 eligible later years. This compares the extreme groups; it does not establish that all five retain their order.
190 authorities have complete, unflagged mileage histories. These are the same frozen groups and calculations used in the Postcode Risk Lab. Rates pool numerators and denominators; areas are not averaged equally.
Select a point, or use the Data tab for exact values. Missing observations remain gaps.
| Year | Q1 · lower discovery risk | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 · higher discovery risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.02155 | 0.02897 | 0.03782 | 0.05523 | 0.13012 |
| 2017 | 0.01865 | 0.02658 | 0.03442 | 0.05198 | 0.13694 |
| 2018 | 0.01741 | 0.02444 | 0.03221 | 0.04897 | 0.13112 |
| 2019 | 0.01615 | 0.02295 | 0.02988 | 0.04688 | 0.12704 |
| 2020 | 0.01586 | 0.02293 | 0.02846 | 0.04461 | 0.12778 |
| 2021 | 0.01498 | 0.02265 | 0.02862 | 0.04546 | 0.12775 |
| 2022 | 0.01422 | 0.02162 | 0.02833 | 0.04463 | 0.12457 |
| 2023 | 0.01439 | 0.02042 | 0.02703 | 0.04269 | 0.12082 |
| 2024 | 0.01386 | 0.01967 | 0.02622 | 0.04013 | 0.10966 |
| 2025 | 0.01326 | 0.01992 | 0.0254 | 0.03957 | 0.10898 |
| Group | Year | Rate | Authorities | Injury collisions | Motor miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 2016 | 0.02155 | 38 | 10,969 | 50,899,100,000 |
| Q1 | 2017 | 0.01865 | 38 | 9,673 | 51,865,300,000 |
| Q1 | 2018 | 0.01741 | 38 | 9,045 | 51,961,100,000 |
| Q1 | 2019 | 0.01615 | 38 | 8,494 | 52,590,100,000 |
| Q1 | 2020 | 0.01586 | 38 | 6,361 | 40,108,800,000 |
| Q1 | 2021 | 0.01498 | 38 | 6,851 | 45,734,500,000 |
| Q1 | 2022 | 0.01422 | 38 | 7,174 | 50,457,500,000 |
| Q1 | 2023 | 0.01439 | 38 | 7,448 | 51,765,300,000 |
| Q1 | 2024 | 0.01386 | 38 | 7,304 | 52,701,300,000 |
| Q1 | 2025 | 0.01326 | 38 | 7,107 | 53,616,700,000 |
| Q2 | 2016 | 0.02897 | 38 | 23,526 | 81,212,500,000 |
| Q2 | 2017 | 0.02658 | 38 | 21,906 | 82,418,200,000 |
| Q2 | 2018 | 0.02444 | 38 | 20,260 | 82,881,700,000 |
| Q2 | 2019 | 0.02295 | 38 | 19,283 | 84,009,900,000 |
| Q2 | 2020 | 0.02293 | 38 | 15,021 | 65,513,900,000 |
| Q2 | 2021 | 0.02265 | 38 | 16,705 | 73,753,400,000 |
| Q2 | 2022 | 0.02162 | 38 | 17,434 | 80,647,300,000 |
| Q2 | 2023 | 0.02042 | 38 | 16,856 | 82,541,000,000 |
| Q2 | 2024 | 0.01967 | 38 | 16,504 | 83,905,200,000 |
| Q2 | 2025 | 0.01992 | 38 | 17,037 | 85,530,500,000 |
| Q3 | 2016 | 0.03782 | 38 | 29,596 | 78,246,500,000 |
| Q3 | 2017 | 0.03442 | 38 | 27,353 | 79,476,000,000 |
| Q3 | 2018 | 0.03221 | 38 | 25,823 | 80,164,100,000 |
| Q3 | 2019 | 0.02988 | 38 | 24,295 | 81,320,300,000 |
| Q3 | 2020 | 0.02846 | 38 | 18,309 | 64,343,700,000 |
| Q3 | 2021 | 0.02862 | 38 | 20,494 | 71,613,600,000 |
| Q3 | 2022 | 0.02833 | 38 | 22,021 | 77,731,400,000 |
| Q3 | 2023 | 0.02703 | 38 | 21,464 | 79,408,500,000 |
| Q3 | 2024 | 0.02622 | 38 | 21,080 | 80,411,200,000 |
| Q3 | 2025 | 0.0254 | 38 | 20,918 | 82,340,100,000 |
| Q4 | 2016 | 0.05523 | 38 | 31,991 | 57,922,600,000 |
| Q4 | 2017 | 0.05198 | 38 | 30,428 | 58,543,500,000 |
| Q4 | 2018 | 0.04897 | 38 | 28,785 | 58,786,000,000 |
| Q4 | 2019 | 0.04688 | 38 | 27,856 | 59,416,500,000 |
| Q4 | 2020 | 0.04461 | 38 | 21,191 | 47,506,000,000 |
| Q4 | 2021 | 0.04546 | 38 | 23,825 | 52,403,900,000 |
| Q4 | 2022 | 0.04463 | 38 | 25,399 | 56,906,300,000 |
| Q4 | 2023 | 0.04269 | 38 | 24,807 | 58,110,200,000 |
| Q4 | 2024 | 0.04013 | 38 | 23,719 | 59,100,600,000 |
| Q4 | 2025 | 0.03957 | 38 | 23,775 | 60,076,100,000 |
| Q5 | 2016 | 0.13012 | 38 | 28,185 | 21,660,300,000 |
| Q5 | 2017 | 0.13694 | 38 | 29,699 | 21,688,100,000 |
| Q5 | 2018 | 0.13112 | 38 | 28,396 | 21,656,800,000 |
| Q5 | 2019 | 0.12704 | 38 | 27,835 | 21,909,900,000 |
| Q5 | 2020 | 0.12778 | 38 | 22,869 | 17,896,700,000 |
| Q5 | 2021 | 0.12775 | 38 | 25,230 | 19,748,800,000 |
| Q5 | 2022 | 0.12457 | 38 | 25,730 | 20,655,200,000 |
| Q5 | 2023 | 0.12082 | 38 | 25,149 | 20,815,700,000 |
| Q5 | 2024 | 0.10966 | 38 | 23,120 | 21,084,000,000 |
| Q5 | 2025 | 0.10898 | 38 | 23,170 | 21,260,500,000 |
County Durham: discovery Q3, later Q2; 0.02906 → 0.01662 collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles. Group membership changes in the later period.
Continue with the same authority, metric and release in Postcode RiskRank correlation: 0.954 across 190 eligible areas. The dashed line marks equal rates. A shift in the national level can move all points without changing their order.
Select a point or read the accompanying data table.
| Authority | Earlier rate | Later rate | Earlier count | Later count | Later miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County Durham | 0.02906 | 0.01662 | 3,084 | 1,861 | 11,194,500,000 |
| Darlington | 0.0383 | 0.02244 | 779 | 477 | 2,126,100,000 |
| Gateshead | 0.03539 | 0.02455 | 1,510 | 1,087 | 4,427,000,000 |
| Hartlepool | 0.02599 | 0.02289 | 407 | 380 | 1,659,900,000 |
| Middlesbrough | 0.02978 | 0.02026 | 872 | 693 | 3,419,900,000 |
| Newcastle upon Tyne | 0.05257 | 0.04091 | 2,269 | 1,801 | 4,402,600,000 |
| North Tyneside | 0.03641 | 0.02649 | 1,164 | 892 | 3,367,100,000 |
| Northumberland | 0.02932 | 0.01984 | 2,275 | 1,640 | 8,266,200,000 |
| Redcar and Cleveland | 0.02374 | 0.02018 | 542 | 484 | 2,397,900,000 |
| South Tyneside | 0.04526 | 0.03084 | 851 | 628 | 2,036,200,000 |
| Stockton-on-Tees | 0.02523 | 0.01915 | 905 | 712 | 3,718,600,000 |
| Sunderland | 0.04058 | 0.03008 | 1,728 | 1,313 | 4,365,000,000 |
| Blackburn with Darwen | 0.08022 | 0.06551 | 1,435 | 1,146 | 1,749,400,000 |
| Blackpool | 0.10928 | 0.09264 | 1,459 | 1,218 | 1,314,700,000 |
| Bolton | 0.03253 | 0.02324 | 1,652 | 1,208 | 5,198,100,000 |
| Bury | 0.02224 | 0.0168 | 906 | 683 | 4,065,100,000 |
| Cheshire East | 0.02554 | 0.01974 | 2,978 | 2,357 | 11,940,900,000 |
| Cheshire West and Chester | 0.02699 | 0.02059 | 2,720 | 2,091 | 10,153,000,000 |
| Halton | 0.03363 | 0.02201 | 885 | 568 | 2,581,200,000 |
| Knowsley | 0.02222 | 0.01977 | 855 | 809 | 4,091,900,000 |
| Lancashire | 0.03656 | 0.02951 | 10,456 | 8,614 | 29,194,200,000 |
| Liverpool | 0.06907 | 0.06678 | 3,802 | 3,605 | 5,398,000,000 |
| Manchester | 0.0548 | 0.04078 | 3,663 | 2,769 | 6,790,100,000 |
| Oldham | 0.04355 | 0.02845 | 1,218 | 821 | 2,886,200,000 |
| Rochdale | 0.02522 | 0.01792 | 1,074 | 799 | 4,458,300,000 |
| Salford | 0.02552 | 0.01903 | 1,469 | 1,106 | 5,812,900,000 |
| Sefton | 0.06009 | 0.04607 | 1,751 | 1,350 | 2,930,200,000 |
| St. Helens | 0.02846 | 0.0277 | 983 | 942 | 3,400,400,000 |
| Stockport | 0.02297 | 0.01805 | 1,093 | 891 | 4,935,200,000 |
| Tameside | 0.03515 | 0.02782 | 1,049 | 849 | 3,051,600,000 |
| Trafford | 0.02837 | 0.01944 | 1,054 | 758 | 3,898,800,000 |
| Warrington | 0.02556 | 0.01763 | 1,749 | 1,236 | 7,009,500,000 |
| Wigan | 0.02425 | 0.01917 | 1,183 | 954 | 4,976,300,000 |
| Wirral | 0.04131 | 0.03481 | 1,778 | 1,522 | 4,372,000,000 |
| Bradford | 0.06292 | 0.06895 | 3,971 | 4,104 | 5,952,400,000 |
| Calderdale | 0.03379 | 0.03902 | 1,329 | 1,490 | 3,818,400,000 |
| Doncaster | 0.03173 | 0.02432 | 2,711 | 2,101 | 8,637,900,000 |
| East Riding of Yorkshire | 0.03084 | 0.02539 | 2,846 | 2,366 | 9,317,500,000 |
| Kingston upon Hull, City of | 0.10328 | 0.08809 | 3,192 | 2,630 | 2,985,700,000 |
| Kirklees | 0.03939 | 0.03929 | 2,770 | 2,692 | 6,850,900,000 |
| Leeds | 0.03887 | 0.0355 | 6,638 | 5,907 | 16,637,900,000 |
| North East Lincolnshire | 0.06579 | 0.05535 | 1,660 | 1,343 | 2,426,500,000 |
| North Lincolnshire | 0.0358 | 0.03 | 1,634 | 1,359 | 4,529,600,000 |
| North Yorkshire | 0.02376 | 0.01936 | 5,238 | 4,198 | 21,678,700,000 |
| Rotherham | 0.03159 | 0.02691 | 1,968 | 1,693 | 6,290,500,000 |
| Wakefield | 0.03103 | 0.03198 | 2,379 | 2,405 | 7,521,200,000 |
| York | 0.04896 | 0.03717 | 1,638 | 1,227 | 3,301,100,000 |
| Derby | 0.04306 | 0.03965 | 1,927 | 1,909 | 4,814,300,000 |
| Derbyshire | 0.02353 | 0.02407 | 4,996 | 5,239 | 21,769,100,000 |
| Leicester | 0.07358 | 0.04478 | 2,765 | 1,819 | 4,062,500,000 |
| Leicestershire | 0.01819 | 0.01338 | 3,704 | 2,796 | 20,894,600,000 |
| Lincolnshire | 0.04544 | 0.03897 | 7,669 | 6,764 | 17,355,000,000 |
| Nottingham | 0.08584 | 0.06955 | 3,494 | 2,945 | 4,234,200,000 |
| Nottinghamshire | 0.03269 | 0.02665 | 6,370 | 5,169 | 19,395,600,000 |
| Rutland | 0.01302 | 0.0075 | 231 | 130 | 1,733,700,000 |
| Birmingham | 0.07259 | 0.0629 | 10,705 | 9,181 | 14,596,900,000 |
| Coventry | 0.05105 | 0.03266 | 2,488 | 1,579 | 4,834,100,000 |
| Dudley | 0.0412 | 0.03836 | 1,761 | 1,620 | 4,222,600,000 |
| Herefordshire, County of | 0.02872 | 0.02458 | 1,412 | 1,211 | 4,927,100,000 |
| Sandwell | 0.04617 | 0.04443 | 2,452 | 2,377 | 5,350,100,000 |
| Shropshire | 0.02496 | 0.01731 | 2,109 | 1,491 | 8,615,100,000 |
| Solihull | 0.01791 | 0.01809 | 1,105 | 1,037 | 5,733,100,000 |
| Telford and Wrekin | 0.02322 | 0.01632 | 860 | 614 | 3,762,500,000 |
| Walsall | 0.05217 | 0.0386 | 2,021 | 1,556 | 4,031,400,000 |
| Warwickshire | 0.02105 | 0.01643 | 5,142 | 4,034 | 24,553,300,000 |
| Wolverhampton | 0.06627 | 0.05754 | 1,956 | 1,637 | 2,845,000,000 |
| Worcestershire | 0.02107 | 0.01522 | 3,708 | 2,752 | 18,082,600,000 |
| Bedford | 0.04526 | 0.03562 | 1,526 | 1,242 | 3,486,600,000 |
| Cambridgeshire | 0.02842 | 0.0208 | 5,637 | 4,296 | 20,658,400,000 |
| Central Bedfordshire | 0.0308 | 0.02439 | 2,589 | 2,092 | 8,575,700,000 |
| Essex | 0.02781 | 0.02407 | 10,565 | 9,333 | 38,778,400,000 |
| Hertfordshire | 0.02964 | 0.02302 | 8,898 | 6,776 | 29,432,800,000 |
| Luton | 0.09608 | 0.0762 | 1,959 | 1,543 | 2,024,900,000 |
| Norfolk | 0.03319 | 0.02851 | 7,059 | 6,238 | 21,877,700,000 |
| Peterborough | 0.04253 | 0.03022 | 2,047 | 1,481 | 4,900,300,000 |
| Southend-on-Sea | 0.07072 | 0.06853 | 1,148 | 1,081 | 1,577,400,000 |
| Suffolk | 0.03622 | 0.02701 | 5,985 | 4,476 | 16,573,700,000 |
| Thurrock | 0.02934 | 0.02251 | 1,292 | 1,015 | 4,509,700,000 |
| Barking and Dagenham | 0.13976 | 0.11633 | 2,307 | 1,879 | 1,615,300,000 |
| Barnet | 0.08492 | 0.07817 | 3,780 | 3,276 | 4,190,800,000 |
| Bexley | 0.07368 | 0.0638 | 1,883 | 1,587 | 2,487,500,000 |
| Brent | 0.15054 | 0.13907 | 3,768 | 3,371 | 2,423,900,000 |
| Bromley | 0.08481 | 0.06851 | 3,055 | 2,424 | 3,538,300,000 |
| Camden | 0.28256 | 0.25195 | 3,482 | 2,779 | 1,103,000,000 |
| City of London | 0.31767 | 0.24542 | 1,210 | 723 | 294,600,000 |
| Croydon | 0.11062 | 0.11668 | 3,716 | 3,902 | 3,344,100,000 |
| Ealing | 0.11806 | 0.10225 | 3,995 | 3,256 | 3,184,300,000 |
| Enfield | 0.08007 | 0.08364 | 3,522 | 3,721 | 4,448,900,000 |
| Greenwich | 0.0943 | 0.08095 | 2,809 | 2,412 | 2,979,500,000 |
| Hackney | 0.29798 | 0.27648 | 3,458 | 3,007 | 1,087,600,000 |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | 0.20455 | 0.184 | 2,673 | 2,217 | 1,204,900,000 |
| Haringey | 0.26459 | 0.2577 | 3,619 | 3,306 | 1,282,900,000 |
| Harrow | 0.11687 | 0.10086 | 1,902 | 1,612 | 1,598,200,000 |
| Havering | 0.05348 | 0.04648 | 2,379 | 2,090 | 4,496,900,000 |
| Hillingdon | 0.04853 | 0.04588 | 2,969 | 2,686 | 5,854,600,000 |
| Hounslow | 0.07689 | 0.06764 | 3,266 | 2,765 | 4,088,100,000 |
| Islington | 0.31941 | 0.25669 | 3,143 | 2,313 | 901,100,000 |
| Kensington and Chelsea | 0.22494 | 0.19385 | 2,879 | 2,377 | 1,226,200,000 |
| Kingston upon Thames | 0.05331 | 0.0476 | 1,326 | 1,140 | 2,395,200,000 |
| Lambeth | 0.26421 | 0.21896 | 5,031 | 3,972 | 1,814,000,000 |
| Lewisham | 0.17747 | 0.16678 | 3,421 | 2,976 | 1,784,400,000 |
| Merton | 0.12154 | 0.1042 | 2,006 | 1,674 | 1,606,600,000 |
| Newham | 0.14964 | 0.14156 | 3,508 | 3,232 | 2,283,200,000 |
| Redbridge | 0.09809 | 0.08814 | 2,938 | 2,543 | 2,885,200,000 |
| Richmond upon Thames | 0.07773 | 0.0707 | 1,683 | 1,436 | 2,031,000,000 |
| Southwark | 0.2431 | 0.22651 | 4,369 | 3,899 | 1,721,300,000 |
| Sutton | 0.08946 | 0.07674 | 1,618 | 1,410 | 1,837,400,000 |
| Tower Hamlets | 0.20614 | 0.18957 | 4,498 | 3,895 | 2,054,700,000 |
| Waltham Forest | 0.13353 | 0.10447 | 2,713 | 2,069 | 1,980,400,000 |
| Wandsworth | 0.20374 | 0.19758 | 3,964 | 3,599 | 1,821,500,000 |
| Westminster | 0.29763 | 0.26459 | 6,305 | 4,769 | 1,802,400,000 |
| Bracknell Forest | 0.03106 | 0.02594 | 558 | 455 | 1,754,000,000 |
| Brighton and Hove | 0.08808 | 0.07752 | 2,829 | 2,349 | 3,030,100,000 |
| East Sussex | 0.0488 | 0.04276 | 5,287 | 4,492 | 10,505,300,000 |
| Hampshire | 0.02729 | 0.02392 | 10,652 | 9,114 | 38,095,000,000 |
| Isle of Wight | 0.0733 | 0.0607 | 1,211 | 968 | 1,594,700,000 |
| Kent | 0.04225 | 0.03349 | 16,022 | 12,684 | 37,873,100,000 |
| Medway | 0.06907 | 0.05612 | 2,409 | 1,956 | 3,485,300,000 |
| Milton Keynes | 0.03385 | 0.0203 | 2,121 | 1,221 | 6,014,300,000 |
| Oxfordshire | 0.02571 | 0.01869 | 5,033 | 3,521 | 18,839,100,000 |
| Portsmouth | 0.06949 | 0.06054 | 2,106 | 1,819 | 3,004,400,000 |
| Reading | 0.07586 | 0.07564 | 1,131 | 1,072 | 1,417,200,000 |
| Slough | 0.06485 | 0.04824 | 1,326 | 908 | 1,882,300,000 |
| Southampton | 0.08227 | 0.0765 | 2,095 | 1,865 | 2,437,900,000 |
| Surrey | 0.03845 | 0.03106 | 13,326 | 10,475 | 33,721,600,000 |
| West Berkshire | 0.01221 | 0.0113 | 952 | 821 | 7,268,500,000 |
| West Sussex | 0.04361 | 0.04033 | 7,787 | 6,930 | 17,184,400,000 |
| Windsor and Maidenhead | 0.02286 | 0.01626 | 1,049 | 709 | 4,359,600,000 |
| Wokingham | 0.02006 | 0.018 | 829 | 707 | 3,928,200,000 |
| Cornwall | 0.03378 | 0.0275 | 4,659 | 3,874 | 14,088,600,000 |
| Devon | 0.02723 | 0.02112 | 6,300 | 5,024 | 23,783,500,000 |
| Gloucestershire | 0.01859 | 0.02236 | 3,268 | 3,893 | 17,411,500,000 |
| Plymouth | 0.05421 | 0.04098 | 2,031 | 1,608 | 3,923,500,000 |
| Swindon | 0.03095 | 0.03274 | 1,665 | 1,612 | 4,923,100,000 |
| Torbay | 0.05828 | 0.04121 | 1,010 | 696 | 1,688,800,000 |
| Wiltshire | 0.02496 | 0.02553 | 3,867 | 3,811 | 14,926,800,000 |
| Aberdeen City | 0.01652 | 0.00761 | 571 | 290 | 3,808,300,000 |
| Aberdeenshire | 0.01295 | 0.00707 | 1,016 | 562 | 7,953,200,000 |
| Angus | 0.01637 | 0.01334 | 464 | 374 | 2,803,400,000 |
| Argyll and Bute | 0.02687 | 0.01508 | 652 | 362 | 2,399,900,000 |
| City of Edinburgh | 0.04663 | 0.02508 | 3,533 | 1,907 | 7,603,700,000 |
| Clackmannanshire | 0.02236 | 0.01082 | 186 | 92 | 850,500,000 |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 0.0174 | 0.01411 | 959 | 791 | 5,607,700,000 |
| Dundee City | 0.02297 | 0.0253 | 477 | 539 | 2,130,300,000 |
| East Ayrshire | 0.02053 | 0.012 | 576 | 347 | 2,891,700,000 |
| East Dunbartonshire | 0.02213 | 0.01058 | 307 | 149 | 1,407,700,000 |
| East Lothian | 0.0222 | 0.01221 | 543 | 316 | 2,589,000,000 |
| East Renfrewshire | 0.01666 | 0.01224 | 327 | 244 | 1,994,100,000 |
| Falkirk | 0.01839 | 0.00932 | 747 | 371 | 3,981,000,000 |
| Fife | 0.01829 | 0.01367 | 1,395 | 1,037 | 7,586,300,000 |
| Glasgow City | 0.04604 | 0.02687 | 4,100 | 2,395 | 8,913,600,000 |
| Highland | 0.01955 | 0.01275 | 1,411 | 983 | 7,712,700,000 |
| Inverclyde | 0.0287 | 0.0117 | 378 | 153 | 1,307,400,000 |
| Midlothian | 0.03059 | 0.018 | 536 | 312 | 1,733,300,000 |
| Moray | 0.01195 | 0.00838 | 236 | 170 | 2,029,800,000 |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | 0.01444 | 0.00934 | 86 | 52 | 556,800,000 |
| North Ayrshire | 0.03147 | 0.01796 | 624 | 360 | 2,004,100,000 |
| North Lanarkshire | 0.0205 | 0.01034 | 1,655 | 875 | 8,459,800,000 |
| Orkney Islands | 0.01978 | 0.01123 | 74 | 42 | 373,900,000 |
| Perth and Kinross | 0.01074 | 0.00949 | 689 | 604 | 6,364,700,000 |
| Renfrewshire | 0.02311 | 0.01215 | 921 | 494 | 4,066,100,000 |
| Scottish Borders | 0.02195 | 0.01146 | 707 | 362 | 3,158,800,000 |
| Shetland Islands | 0.01331 | 0.0077 | 77 | 44 | 571,500,000 |
| South Ayrshire | 0.02358 | 0.01094 | 609 | 288 | 2,631,600,000 |
| South Lanarkshire | 0.02277 | 0.01343 | 1,573 | 952 | 7,090,600,000 |
| Stirling | 0.01699 | 0.01103 | 564 | 354 | 3,210,500,000 |
| West Dunbartonshire | 0.02391 | 0.01144 | 397 | 193 | 1,687,200,000 |
| West Lothian | 0.02425 | 0.01295 | 1,135 | 614 | 4,741,100,000 |
| Blaenau Gwent | 0.0246 | 0.0217 | 263 | 226 | 1,041,600,000 |
| Bridgend | 0.02099 | 0.00927 | 740 | 323 | 3,484,700,000 |
| Caerphilly | 0.0238 | 0.02045 | 715 | 600 | 2,933,400,000 |
| Cardiff | 0.02343 | 0.01368 | 1,810 | 1,080 | 7,895,700,000 |
| Carmarthenshire | 0.02943 | 0.02569 | 1,540 | 1,310 | 5,099,600,000 |
| Ceredigion | 0.03454 | 0.03272 | 696 | 615 | 1,879,300,000 |
| Conwy | 0.02269 | 0.01342 | 725 | 434 | 3,233,500,000 |
| Denbighshire | 0.02863 | 0.01989 | 676 | 448 | 2,252,400,000 |
| Flintshire | 0.01712 | 0.01332 | 762 | 581 | 4,362,900,000 |
| Gwynedd | 0.02134 | 0.01451 | 746 | 502 | 3,458,800,000 |
| Isle of Anglesey | 0.0181 | 0.0113 | 301 | 187 | 1,654,200,000 |
| Merthyr Tydfil | 0.03359 | 0.01572 | 351 | 174 | 1,106,900,000 |
| Monmouthshire | 0.01152 | 0.01102 | 431 | 415 | 3,767,100,000 |
| Neath Port Talbot | 0.02075 | 0.00889 | 732 | 309 | 3,476,800,000 |
| Newport | 0.01697 | 0.01334 | 845 | 658 | 4,932,300,000 |
| Pembrokeshire | 0.0353 | 0.03112 | 1,030 | 885 | 2,843,800,000 |
| Powys | 0.03437 | 0.03231 | 1,445 | 1,304 | 4,035,300,000 |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 0.02281 | 0.01224 | 1,245 | 672 | 5,490,100,000 |
| Swansea | 0.02898 | 0.01211 | 1,302 | 546 | 4,508,700,000 |
| Torfaen | 0.02033 | 0.01948 | 334 | 337 | 1,730,100,000 |
| Vale of Glamorgan | 0.02275 | 0.01439 | 625 | 389 | 2,703,000,000 |
| Wrexham | 0.02527 | 0.01778 | 689 | 480 | 2,699,600,000 |
Rows are the frozen discovery groups. Columns rank the same eligible areas in the later period. Darker cells indicate a greater share; each non-empty row sums to 100% before rounding.
| Earlier ↓ / later → | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 73.7%28 / 38 areas in this row | 23.7%9 / 38 areas in this row | 2.6%1 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row |
| Q2 | 21.1%8 / 38 areas in this row | 57.9%22 / 38 areas in this row | 21.1%8 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row |
| Q3 | 5.3%2 / 38 areas in this row | 18.4%7 / 38 areas in this row | 60.5%23 / 38 areas in this row | 15.8%6 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row |
| Q4 | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 15.8%6 / 38 areas in this row | 78.9%30 / 38 areas in this row | 5.3%2 / 38 areas in this row |
| Q5 | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 5.3%2 / 38 areas in this row | 94.7%36 / 38 areas in this row |
Each horizon repeats the comparison across eligible pairs of individual years. Correlations are descriptive; the overlapping tests are not independent evidence.
| Years ahead | Year pairs | Median correlation | Range | Mean excluding pandemic endpoints |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 0.981 | 0.959–0.989 | 0.979 |
| 2 | 8 | 0.975 | 0.945–0.977 | 0.968 |
| 3 | 7 | 0.955 | 0.939–0.976 | 0.957 |
| 5 | 5 | 0.95 | 0.911–0.965 | 0.946 |
| Horizon | Earlier year | Later year | Areas | Rank correlation | Pandemic endpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 2017 | 187 | 0.959 | No |
| 1 | 2017 | 2018 | 187 | 0.981 | No |
| 1 | 2018 | 2019 | 188 | 0.977 | No |
| 1 | 2019 | 2020 | 187 | 0.967 | Yes |
| 1 | 2020 | 2021 | 186 | 0.979 | Yes |
| 1 | 2021 | 2022 | 186 | 0.986 | Yes |
| 1 | 2022 | 2023 | 187 | 0.985 | No |
| 1 | 2023 | 2024 | 187 | 0.982 | No |
| 1 | 2024 | 2025 | 187 | 0.989 | No |
| 2 | 2016 | 2018 | 188 | 0.945 | No |
| 2 | 2017 | 2019 | 187 | 0.974 | No |
| 2 | 2018 | 2020 | 187 | 0.954 | Yes |
| 2 | 2019 | 2021 | 187 | 0.963 | Yes |
| 2 | 2020 | 2022 | 187 | 0.977 | Yes |
| 2 | 2021 | 2023 | 186 | 0.976 | Yes |
| 2 | 2022 | 2024 | 187 | 0.977 | No |
| 2 | 2023 | 2025 | 187 | 0.976 | No |
| 3 | 2016 | 2019 | 190 | 0.939 | No |
| 3 | 2017 | 2020 | 187 | 0.946 | Yes |
| 3 | 2018 | 2021 | 187 | 0.952 | Yes |
| 3 | 2019 | 2022 | 187 | 0.955 | No |
| 3 | 2020 | 2023 | 187 | 0.974 | Yes |
| 3 | 2021 | 2024 | 186 | 0.971 | Yes |
| 3 | 2022 | 2025 | 187 | 0.976 | No |
| 5 | 2016 | 2021 | 187 | 0.911 | Yes |
| 5 | 2017 | 2022 | 187 | 0.932 | No |
| 5 | 2018 | 2023 | 187 | 0.95 | No |
| 5 | 2019 | 2024 | 187 | 0.957 | No |
| 5 | 2020 | 2025 | 187 | 0.965 | Yes |
This is a retrospective persistence test. Complete-area selection, stable reporting differences and road mix can all affect the result. It is not a causal effect or an insurer pricing validation.
Derived descriptive rate
Outcome: Reported injury collisions
Adjustment: Descriptive; no risk-factor adjustment
Interpretation limit: Includes injury collisions involving only non-motor road users over a motor-mile denominator. This is a contextual road-exposure rate, not matched motor-involved collision frequency, insured claim frequency or fault.
Loading source monitoring. Selected results are already available; live checks do not change them.
2db1cc2ac20f6a0cce917207b9f8c8d310119393b67e7bdc94dcb1adfa19d480Original bytes archived losslessly as gzip; sha256 applies to decompressed bytes. Initial reproducible extraction, no human source review asserted.
b07cbe882042158d2bc2650bb71c865187cb4694f3069597f6d867d7ef636441Original bytes archived losslessly as gzip; sha256 applies to decompressed bytes. Initial reproducible extraction, no human source review asserted.
afdc4feb04a9577c84080926e06769fe60fc8d0a445df1032a95ec2bb7766a92Original bytes archived losslessly as gzip; sha256 applies to decompressed bytes. Initial reproducible extraction, no human source review asserted.
| Source | Evidence period | Source published | Checked in release | Latest check | Monitoring state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 21 Oct 2026 | No source issue recorded |
| Local authority motor vehicle mileage | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 21 Oct 2026 | No source issue recorded |
| Rainfall — England | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Rainfall — Wales | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Rainfall — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Air frost — England | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Air frost — Wales | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Air frost — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — England | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — Wales | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| STATS19 collision records, latest five final years | 2021–2025 | Date unavailable | 25 Sept 2026 | Date unavailable | No live check linked |
| STATS19 vehicle records, latest five final years | 2021–2025 | Date unavailable | 25 Sept 2026 | Date unavailable | No live check linked |
| STATS19 casualty records, latest five final years | 2021–2025 | Date unavailable | 25 Sept 2026 | Date unavailable | No live check linked |
| STATS19 codebook and historical mappings | 2021–2025 | Date unavailable | 25 Sept 2026 | Date unavailable | No live check linked |
| Regional vehicle mileage | 2021–2025 | Date unavailable | 25 Sept 2026 | Date unavailable | No live check linked |
| Regional road-category mileage | 2021–2025 | Date unavailable | 25 Sept 2026 | Date unavailable | No live check linked |
| VEH0120 GB licensed vehicle stock | 2021–2025 | Date unavailable | 25 Sept 2026 | Date unavailable | No live check linked |
lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f