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ACTUARIAL FREQUENCY GLM · USER-LED FEATURE REVIEW
All 40 nationally banded features fitted together, plus ten separate raw-value extensions. Find a feature, compare its predictive evidence and record what to keep, drop or simplify.
Outcome: motor-involved, police-recorded injury collisions at the collision location per 100,000 allocated vehicle miles. This retrospective evidence does not measure policyholder claim frequency or causal effects.
Search the fixed register, inspect one feature and record a decision. All 40 banded features share the joint model; the ten raw-value extensions each use their own available cohort.
Joint national-band model · decisions remain in this browser
Evidence ready for No qualifications. Joint national-band model.
Selected evidence: No qualifications · Joint national-band model. Analytical release ew-glm-review-v1.
No qualifications · Joint national-band modelAnalytical release: ew-glm-review-v1
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The interval includes zero: incremental predictive improvement is not resolved. A small coefficient q-value does not establish incremental predictive value.
Positive gain means lower 2023 Poisson deviance when the feature is included. The conditional interval holds predictions fixed and excludes exposure and model-selection uncertainty. 0 unsupported rows excluded from both scores.
Joint national-band model
100 × (Highest level of qualification: No qualifications) / (Highest level of qualification: Total: All usual residents aged 16 years and over)
% · Source period: 2021-03-21
Charts displayed; exact values remain available with each chart.
Selected comparison: Preferred mileage · 2022–2023 pooled
Raw and adjusted patterns use the same selected band records and mileage basis. Raw frequencies retain each band’s covariate mix; conditional relativities hold the other model terms fixed. The two charts use different units. National band boundaries and reference D5 remain frozen.
| Band | Frozen raw range | Reference | Adjusted relativity (95% interval) | LSOAs | Collisions | Million miles | Raw / fitted frequency per 100k | Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.845–9.551 | D5 | 0.865 (0.81–0.924) | 3,212 | 20,706 | 46,459.99 | 0.04457 / 0.04457 | No weak-support flag |
| D2 | 9.551–12.081 | D5 | 0.904 (0.857–0.954) | 3,294 | 20,560 | 75,316.58 | 0.0273 / 0.0273 | No weak-support flag |
| D3 | 12.081–14 | D5 | 0.91 (0.866–0.956) | 3,251 | 18,785 | 74,178.25 | 0.02532 / 0.02532 | No weak-support flag |
| D4 | 14.001–15.827 | D5 | 0.966 (0.929–1.004) | 3,300 | 19,841 | 71,979.5 | 0.02756 / 0.02756 | No weak-support flag |
| D5 | 15.827–17.677 | D5 | 1 (1–1) | 3,285 | 18,782 | 63,473.43 | 0.02959 / 0.02959 | No weak-support flag |
| D6 | 17.677–19.645 | D5 | 1.03 (0.99–1.071) | 3,284 | 18,028 | 54,111.69 | 0.03332 / 0.03332 | No weak-support flag |
| D7 | 19.645–21.908 | D5 | 1.039 (0.993–1.088) | 3,295 | 17,361 | 45,503.81 | 0.03815 / 0.03815 | No weak-support flag |
| D8 | 21.909–24.594 | D5 | 1.016 (0.963–1.073) | 3,302 | 17,039 | 43,468.53 | 0.0392 / 0.0392 | No weak-support flag |
| D9 | 24.594–28.353 | D5 | 1.084 (1.01–1.164) | 3,304 | 16,443 | 33,786.08 | 0.04867 / 0.04867 | No weak-support flag |
| D10 | 28.353–51.648 | D5 | 1.131 (1.035–1.236) | 3,262 | 18,210 | 32,336.81 | 0.05631 / 0.05631 | No weak-support flag |
Adjusted effects condition on all 40 banded features. Holding correlated or compositional features fixed may describe combinations rarely observed. Empty and unidentifiable bands remain unavailable.
Adjacent-band contrasts below use preferred mileage, pooled 2022–2023, regardless of the displayed sensitivity. An interval containing 1 does not prove equivalence; any merge requires a refit and validation.
| Comparison | Next / previous relativity | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|
| D1 to D2 | 1.046 | 0.997–1.097 |
| D2 to D3 | 1.006 | 0.963–1.051 |
| D3 to D4 | 1.062 | 1.013–1.113 |
| D4 to D5 | 1.035 | 0.996–1.076 |
| D5 to D6 | 1.03 | 0.99–1.071 |
| D6 to D7 | 1.009 | 0.972–1.048 |
| D7 to D8 | 0.978 | 0.933–1.025 |
| D8 to D9 | 1.067 | 1.014–1.122 |
| D9 to D10 | 1.043 | 0.992–1.097 |
Correlations use unique development LSOAs. GVIF measures conditional overlap; neither measure decides a drop.
Residents aged 16+. Not age-adjusted; age composition is a separate control.
Source recordThe table compares the full 40-feature model with the rich geographic/road baseline on matching observations. These gains and calibration values belong to the whole model, not the selected feature.
| Evaluation / mileage | Deviance improvement | Conditional 95% interval | Observed / expected | Eligible / scored rows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fit 2022 → evaluate 2023Preferred mileage | 16.503% | 14.898% to 18.150% | 0.951 | 32,789 / 32,7890 unsupported |
| 2024 previously inspected diagnosticPreferred mileage | 16.109% | 14.552% to 17.858% | 0.943 | 34,515 / 34,5150 unsupported |
| 2025 previously inspected diagnosticPreferred mileage | 15.843% | 14.170% to 17.613% | 0.933 | 34,515 / 34,5150 unsupported |
O/E = observed collisions divided by expected collisions. Below 1 means overprediction; above 1 means underprediction. The 2024–2025 observations were previously inspected and are diagnostics, not untouched validation.
Feature-specific geographic contribution and held-out contribution under alternative mileage are unavailable. Use the Effects tab for coefficient sensitivity, and the table for whole-model validation. The counted-route cohort differs from the allocated-mileage cohort.
Conditional intervals exclude exposure uncertainty, model selection and source measurement error. The public-road outcome does not establish claims pricing performance.
Exact calibration slices · Released validation metricsChoices are saved in this browser. Selecting a choice does not change the displayed model. Download the decision file to share a proposed refit or use another device.
0 choices recorded · browser-only · no automatic drops, merges or refits
This models distinct motor-involved, police-recorded injury collisions at the collision location per 100,000 allocated vehicle miles. It is retrospective STATS19 evidence. It does not measure all crashes, policyholder claim frequency or causal effects.
The reference bands remain frozen across all 35,672 England and Wales LSOAs. Model eligibility reduces the development cohort to 32,789 LSOAs; it does not redefine the deciles. Twelve further candidates have no numeric observations and remain visible as unavailable.
Derived descriptive rate
Interpretation limit: This motor-involved outcome differs from the STATS19 all-injury contextual rate. Retrospective public-road evidence does not establish policyholder claim frequency or causal effects.
| Evaluation | Deviance improvement | Conditional 95% interval | Observed / expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fit 2022 → evaluate 2023 | 16.50% | 14.90%–18.15% | 0.951 |
| Ten geographic holdouts, pooled | 19.42% | 14.97%–23.68% | 1.085 |
| 2024 previously inspected diagnostic | 16.11% | 14.55%–17.86% | 0.943 |
| 2025 previously inspected diagnostic | 15.84% | 14.17%–17.61% | 0.933 |
The temporal model overpredicts total collisions; the pooled geographic model underpredicts them. Geographic results vary, with the North East showing negative deviance improvement. The matched counted-route check improves deviance by only 1.27%, with an interval spanning zero. Allocated-mileage gains therefore need further exposure validation.
Development contains 185,755 collisions over 540.61 billion miles, including 14,978 zero-collision observations. Aggregate observed frequency is 0.03436 per 100,000 miles. Its equality to the fitted development average follows from the intercept fit and is not validation.
Expected collisions = miles / 100,000 × exp(core adjustments + feature effects). The model estimates 378 coefficients with a Poisson log link. It includes year, Wales × year, region, urban/rural context and mileage-quality controls alongside the 40 categorical features.
A relativity of 1.20 means 20% higher modelled frequency than the stated reference, holding the other terms fixed. D5 is the usual reference; features with a structural zero use Z0. For correlated household, road and area measures, some such comparisons have little real-world support.
95% relativity intervals use 162 geographic/source-area blocks. Pearson dispersion is 1.86; clustered covariance allows for extra-Poisson dependence. Intervals exclude exposure, model-selection and source-measurement uncertainty. Conditional q-values and overlap diagnostics are review aids.
The feature contribution refits the model without that feature on 2022 and tests on 2023. It differs from the earlier single-feature ranking. Adjacent-band intervals help you inspect potential merges; an interval including 1 does not establish equivalence. Every chosen drop or merge requires a fresh joint fit.
Several sources describe later snapshots or climate normals. The 2024–2025 data were already inspected, so they are diagnostic rather than untouched validation. Speed coverage is highly selective and current; terrain gradients remain proxies. This review does not complete the earlier automated F8 selection protocol or establish a commercial index.
| Download | Contents |
|---|---|
| Illustrated review report | Feature charts, exact relativities and a printable decision record. |
| All-feature review register | 50 fitted features and 12 unavailable candidates, conditional gain and overlap. |
| All categorical relativities | Joint, annual and mileage-sensitivity effects with support and uncertainty. |
| Adjacent-band contrasts | Covariance-aware comparisons for your simplification review. |
| Raw-value diagnostic curves | Ten separate restricted-cohort extensions. |
| Held-out predictions | Counts and frequencies per 100,000 miles, with evaluation labels. |
| Blank decision template | All estimable features start undecided. |
| Offline reproduction kit | Frozen inputs, model code, requirements and exact numerical output checksums. |
Methods & reproductionFrozen specificationOutput checksumsVerification record
Scientific checks, independent numerical comparison, rendered-content tests and the production build are recorded. Interactive browser QA was unavailable in this build environment.