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POSTCODE RISK LAB
Explore road outcomes across authorities and test whether differences recur in later years. These public proxies do not measure postcode-level insurance claims.
Public geographic evidence. Johan’s five proprietary Postcode Risk Indices are not published here. Their definitions and inputs still require validation and approval.
2016–2025 · Counties and unitary authorities, December 2025
Unpack geography. Follow the risk. Test whether the differences endure.
Differences over time · Authority: County Durham · 2025
lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f
KSI = killed or seriously injured. FSC = fatal or serious collisions. GB = Great Britain. UK = United Kingdom. DfT = Department for Transport. ONS = Office for National Statistics. PFA = police force area. NRD = National Receptor Dataset. These public outcomes are not insurance claim costs.
County / unitary authorities · Great Britaincollisions / 100,000 motor vehicle milesCollision location and traffic through the area; this is not postcode-level insurance risk.
Derived descriptive rate
Interpretation limit: Includes injury collisions involving only non-motor road users over a motor-mile denominator. This is a contextual road-exposure rate, not matched motor-involved collision frequency, insured claim frequency or fault.
207 matching authorities. Current selections remain available.
Absolute measures retain the original outcome and denominator. The benchmark pools outcomes and exposure across the same 190 eligible authorities every year; it is not a whole-country total.
2025. Authority A: County Durham, 0.01516. Authority B: Darlington, 0.02507. collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles.
collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles
Included in the fixed benchmark panel
Included in the fixed benchmark panel
Select a point, or open Chart data for exact values. Missing observations remain gaps.
| Year | A · County Durham | B · Darlington | Fixed-panel benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.0317 | 0.04182 | 0.04286 |
| 2017 | 0.03198 | 0.04192 | 0.0405 |
| 2018 | 0.0282 | 0.03811 | 0.03801 |
| 2019 | 0.0247 | 0.03173 | 0.03601 |
| 2020 | 0.02295 | 0.02427 | 0.03558 |
| 2021 | 0.02056 | 0.02581 | 0.03537 |
| 2022 | 0.01877 | 0.02217 | 0.03413 |
| 2023 | 0.01662 | 0.02036 | 0.03271 |
| 2024 | 0.01606 | 0.02204 | 0.03086 |
| 2025 | 0.01516 | 0.02507 | 0.03038 |
10 common display years in 2016–2025. Axes and map breaks use all authorities and all released years for this measure and basis; changing the selected year or areas does not rescale them. The history window does not change the discovery or assessment periods. Missing values stay as gaps. Relative and indexed values have no estimated confidence interval.
| Year | A | B | Fixed-panel benchmark | A / B evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.0317 | 0.04182 | 0.04286 | Available / Available |
| 2017 | 0.03198 | 0.04192 | 0.0405 | Available / Available |
| 2018 | 0.0282 | 0.03811 | 0.03801 | Available / Available |
| 2019 | 0.0247 | 0.03173 | 0.03601 | Available / Available |
| 2020 | 0.02295 | 0.02427 | 0.03558 | Available / Available |
| 2021 | 0.02056 | 0.02581 | 0.03537 | Available / Available |
| 2022 | 0.01877 | 0.02217 | 0.03413 | Available / Available |
| 2023 | 0.01662 | 0.02036 | 0.03271 | Available / Available |
| 2024 | 0.01606 | 0.02204 | 0.03086 | Available / Available |
| 2025 | 0.01516 | 0.02507 | 0.03038 | Available / Available |
| Component / unit | A · County Durham | B · Darlington |
|---|---|---|
| Injury collision frequency · collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles | 0.01516 | 0.02507 |
| Serious injury exposure · killed or seriously injured casualties / 100,000 motor vehicle miles | 0.00741 | 0.0086 |
| Fatality exposure · fatalities / 100,000 motor vehicle miles | 0.00073 | 0 |
| Severity conditional on collision · % injury collisions fatal or serious | 40.41 | 33.58 |
| Traffic through the area · billion motor vehicle miles | 2.89 | 0.5464 |
203 / 207 authorities have usable 2025 observations for the original measure. Exact code/year joins: 207 / 207; missing or invalid exposure: 3; flagged observations: 4. Categories can overlap.
Map boundaries: Counties and unitary authorities, December 2025. The display boundary edition does not establish historical boundary comparability. No harmonised predecessor/successor crosswalk is supplied in this release. Missing historical codes remain gaps and exclude an authority from the complete-history panel.
Police-force crime counts, country weather and English flood snapshots use separate scopes. No authority-to-force mapping or parked-vehicle exposure is inferred. National changes are not rank movement.
190 of 207 Great Britain county / unitary authorities have an unflagged observation and non-missing motor mileage in every released year (2016–2025). The same panel is used each year. It is not the complete national total or a match on risk characteristics.
Rate = sum of relevant events ÷ sum of motor vehicle miles × 100,000. Severity share uses summed serious/fatal collisions ÷ summed injury collisions × 100. Traffic sums motor mileage, expressed in billions. These are ratios of sums, not an average of area rates.
The selected authority is included in the benchmark. Self-inclusion creates dependence. Relative differences have no confidence interval here. Completeness selection can bias the benchmark; it does not control confounding.
| Authority | Panel eligibility |
|---|---|
| County Durham | Included for every year |
| Darlington | Included for every year |
| Gateshead | Included for every year |
| Hartlepool | Included for every year |
| Middlesbrough | Included for every year |
| Newcastle upon Tyne | Included for every year |
| North Tyneside | Included for every year |
| Northumberland | Included for every year |
| Redcar and Cleveland | Included for every year |
| South Tyneside | Included for every year |
| Stockton-on-Tees | Included for every year |
| Sunderland | Included for every year |
| Blackburn with Darwen | Included for every year |
| Blackpool | Included for every year |
| Bolton | Included for every year |
| Bury | Included for every year |
| Cheshire East | Included for every year |
| Cheshire West and Chester | Included for every year |
| Cumberland | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2021: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2022: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Halton | Included for every year |
| Knowsley | Included for every year |
| Lancashire | Included for every year |
| Liverpool | Included for every year |
| Manchester | Included for every year |
| Oldham | Included for every year |
| Rochdale | Included for every year |
| Salford | Included for every year |
| Sefton | Included for every year |
| St. Helens | Included for every year |
| Stockport | Included for every year |
| Tameside | Included for every year |
| Trafford | Included for every year |
| Warrington | Included for every year |
| Westmorland and Furness | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2021: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2022: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Wigan | Included for every year |
| Wirral | Included for every year |
| Barnsley | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2021: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2022: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2023: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2024: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2025: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Bradford | Included for every year |
| Calderdale | Included for every year |
| Doncaster | Included for every year |
| East Riding of Yorkshire | Included for every year |
| Kingston upon Hull, City of | Included for every year |
| Kirklees | Included for every year |
| Leeds | Included for every year |
| North East Lincolnshire | Included for every year |
| North Lincolnshire | Included for every year |
| North Yorkshire | Included for every year |
| Rotherham | Included for every year |
| Sheffield | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2021: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2022: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2023: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2024: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2025: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Wakefield | Included for every year |
| York | Included for every year |
| Derby | Included for every year |
| Derbyshire | Included for every year |
| Leicester | Included for every year |
| Leicestershire | Included for every year |
| Lincolnshire | Included for every year |
| North Northamptonshire | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Nottingham | Included for every year |
| Nottinghamshire | Included for every year |
| Rutland | Included for every year |
| West Northamptonshire | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2019: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2020: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Birmingham | Included for every year |
| Coventry | Included for every year |
| Dudley | Included for every year |
| Herefordshire, County of | Included for every year |
| Sandwell | Included for every year |
| Shropshire | Included for every year |
| Solihull | Included for every year |
| Staffordshire | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Stoke-on-Trent | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Telford and Wrekin | Included for every year |
| Walsall | Included for every year |
| Warwickshire | Included for every year |
| Wolverhampton | Included for every year |
| Worcestershire | Included for every year |
| Bedford | Included for every year |
| Cambridgeshire | Included for every year |
| Central Bedfordshire | Included for every year |
| Essex | Included for every year |
| Hertfordshire | Included for every year |
| Luton | Included for every year |
| Norfolk | Included for every year |
| Peterborough | Included for every year |
| Southend-on-Sea | Included for every year |
| Suffolk | Included for every year |
| Thurrock | Included for every year |
| Barking and Dagenham | Included for every year |
| Barnet | Included for every year |
| Bexley | Included for every year |
| Brent | Included for every year |
| Bromley | Included for every year |
| Camden | Included for every year |
| City of London | Included for every year |
| Croydon | Included for every year |
| Ealing | Included for every year |
| Enfield | Included for every year |
| Greenwich | Included for every year |
| Hackney | Included for every year |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | Included for every year |
| Haringey | Included for every year |
| Harrow | Included for every year |
| Havering | Included for every year |
| Hillingdon | Included for every year |
| Hounslow | Included for every year |
| Islington | Included for every year |
| Kensington and Chelsea | Included for every year |
| Kingston upon Thames | Included for every year |
| Lambeth | Included for every year |
| Lewisham | Included for every year |
| Merton | Included for every year |
| Newham | Included for every year |
| Redbridge | Included for every year |
| Richmond upon Thames | Included for every year |
| Southwark | Included for every year |
| Sutton | Included for every year |
| Tower Hamlets | Included for every year |
| Waltham Forest | Included for every year |
| Wandsworth | Included for every year |
| Westminster | Included for every year |
| Bracknell Forest | Included for every year |
| Brighton and Hove | Included for every year |
| Buckinghamshire | Excluded: 2016: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2017: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2018: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2019: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2020: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2021: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2022: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2023: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2024: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible; 2025: Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible |
| East Sussex | Included for every year |
| Hampshire | Included for every year |
| Isle of Wight | Included for every year |
| Kent | Included for every year |
| Medway | Included for every year |
| Milton Keynes | Included for every year |
| Oxfordshire | Included for every year |
| Portsmouth | Included for every year |
| Reading | Included for every year |
| Slough | Included for every year |
| Southampton | Included for every year |
| Surrey | Included for every year |
| West Berkshire | Included for every year |
| West Sussex | Included for every year |
| Windsor and Maidenhead | Included for every year |
| Wokingham | Included for every year |
| Bath and North East Somerset | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Bristol, City of | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Cornwall | Included for every year |
| Devon | Included for every year |
| Dorset | Excluded: 2016: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2017: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld; 2018: No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
| Gloucestershire | Included for every year |
| Isles of Scilly | Excluded: 2016: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld; 2017: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld; 2019: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld; 2022: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld; 2023: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld; 2025: Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld |
| North Somerset | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Plymouth | Included for every year |
| Somerset | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| South Gloucestershire | Excluded: 2022: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete; 2023: DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete |
| Swindon | Included for every year |
| Torbay | Included for every year |
| Wiltshire | Included for every year |
| Aberdeen City | Included for every year |
| Aberdeenshire | Included for every year |
| Angus | Included for every year |
| Argyll and Bute | Included for every year |
| City of Edinburgh | Included for every year |
| Clackmannanshire | Included for every year |
| Dumfries and Galloway | Included for every year |
| Dundee City | Included for every year |
| East Ayrshire | Included for every year |
| East Dunbartonshire | Included for every year |
| East Lothian | Included for every year |
| East Renfrewshire | Included for every year |
| Falkirk | Included for every year |
| Fife | Included for every year |
| Glasgow City | Included for every year |
| Highland | Included for every year |
| Inverclyde | Included for every year |
| Midlothian | Included for every year |
| Moray | Included for every year |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | Included for every year |
| North Ayrshire | Included for every year |
| North Lanarkshire | Included for every year |
| Orkney Islands | Included for every year |
| Perth and Kinross | Included for every year |
| Renfrewshire | Included for every year |
| Scottish Borders | Included for every year |
| Shetland Islands | Included for every year |
| South Ayrshire | Included for every year |
| South Lanarkshire | Included for every year |
| Stirling | Included for every year |
| West Dunbartonshire | Included for every year |
| West Lothian | Included for every year |
| Blaenau Gwent | Included for every year |
| Bridgend | Included for every year |
| Caerphilly | Included for every year |
| Cardiff | Included for every year |
| Carmarthenshire | Included for every year |
| Ceredigion | Included for every year |
| Conwy | Included for every year |
| Denbighshire | Included for every year |
| Flintshire | Included for every year |
| Gwynedd | Included for every year |
| Isle of Anglesey | Included for every year |
| Merthyr Tydfil | Included for every year |
| Monmouthshire | Included for every year |
| Neath Port Talbot | Included for every year |
| Newport | Included for every year |
| Pembrokeshire | Included for every year |
| Powys | Included for every year |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | Included for every year |
| Swansea | Included for every year |
| Torfaen | Included for every year |
| Vale of Glamorgan | Included for every year |
| Wrexham | Included for every year |
| Rank | Authority | Displayed value | Evidence / reason | Select |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | City of London | 0.29453 | Complete-history panel | |
| 2 | Hackney | 0.26308 | Complete-history panel | |
| 3 | Westminster | 0.2506 | Complete-history panel | |
| 4 | Islington | 0.23977 | Complete-history panel | |
| 5 | Camden | 0.2379 | Complete-history panel | |
| 6 | Southwark | 0.21539 | Complete-history panel | |
| 7 | Lambeth | 0.20544 | Complete-history panel | |
| 8 | Haringey | 0.20319 | Complete-history panel | |
| 9 | Tower Hamlets | 0.18743 | Complete-history panel | |
| 10 | Kensington and Chelsea | 0.18446 | Complete-history panel | |
| 11 | Hammersmith and Fulham | 0.17846 | Complete-history panel | |
| 12 | Wandsworth | 0.16787 | Complete-history panel | |
| 13 | Lewisham | 0.1605 | Complete-history panel | |
| 14 | Newham | 0.13012 | Complete-history panel | |
| 15 | Barking and Dagenham | 0.11589 | Complete-history panel | |
| 16 | Brent | 0.11561 | Complete-history panel | |
| 17 | Croydon | 0.10995 | Complete-history panel | |
| 18 | Merton | 0.10435 | Complete-history panel | |
| 19 | Waltham Forest | 0.09876 | Complete-history panel | |
| 20 | Harrow | 0.09696 | Complete-history panel | |
| 21 | Ealing | 0.09145 | Complete-history panel | |
| 22 | Blackpool | 0.08661 | Complete-history panel | |
| 23 | Kingston upon Hull, City of | 0.08611 | Complete-history panel | |
| 24 | Redbridge | 0.08535 | Complete-history panel | |
| 25 | Southampton | 0.07828 | Complete-history panel | |
| 26 | Greenwich | 0.07769 | Complete-history panel | |
| 27 | Enfield | 0.07656 | Complete-history panel | |
| 28 | Brighton and Hove | 0.07519 | Complete-history panel | |
| 29 | Nottingham | 0.07271 | Complete-history panel | |
| 30 | Barnet | 0.07146 | Complete-history panel | |
| 31 | Reading | 0.07011 | Complete-history panel | |
| 32 | Southend-on-Sea | 0.06987 | Complete-history panel | |
| 33 | Bromley | 0.0698 | Complete-history panel | |
| 34 | Luton | 0.06851 | Complete-history panel | |
| 35 | Richmond upon Thames | 0.06748 | Complete-history panel | |
| 36 | Hounslow | 0.06729 | Complete-history panel | |
| 37 | Sutton | 0.06525 | Complete-history panel | |
| 38 | Blackburn with Darwen | 0.06327 | Complete-history panel | |
| 39 | Bradford | 0.06294 | Complete-history panel | |
| 40 | Liverpool | 0.06207 | Complete-history panel | |
| 41 | Birmingham | 0.06172 | Complete-history panel | |
| 42 | Portsmouth | 0.06099 | Complete-history panel | |
| 43 | Bexley | 0.0603 | Complete-history panel | |
| 44 | Isle of Wight | 0.05789 | Complete-history panel | |
| 45 | Bristol, City of | 0.05293 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 46 | Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole | 0.05269 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 47 | North East Lincolnshire | 0.05214 | Complete-history panel | |
| 48 | Wolverhampton | 0.05206 | Complete-history panel | |
| 49 | Medway | 0.05074 | Complete-history panel | |
| 50 | Slough | 0.0466 | Complete-history panel | |
| 51 | Leicester | 0.0447 | Complete-history panel | |
| 52 | Sandwell | 0.04399 | Complete-history panel | |
| 53 | Hillingdon | 0.04383 | Complete-history panel | |
| 54 | Havering | 0.0437 | Complete-history panel | |
| 55 | Plymouth | 0.04308 | Complete-history panel | |
| 56 | Sefton | 0.04153 | Complete-history panel | |
| 57 | Stoke-on-Trent | 0.0411 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 58 | Kingston upon Thames | 0.04093 | Complete-history panel | |
| 59 | Manchester | 0.04052 | Complete-history panel | |
| 60 | Torbay | 0.04044 | Complete-history panel | |
| 61 | Newcastle upon Tyne | 0.04017 | Complete-history panel | |
| 62 | Derby | 0.03952 | Complete-history panel | |
| 63 | Walsall | 0.03931 | Complete-history panel | |
| 64 | East Sussex | 0.03912 | Complete-history panel | |
| 65 | Lincolnshire | 0.0382 | Complete-history panel | |
| 66 | York | 0.03698 | Complete-history panel | |
| 67 | Kirklees | 0.03665 | Complete-history panel | |
| 68 | West Sussex | 0.03644 | Complete-history panel | |
| 69 | Calderdale | 0.03638 | Complete-history panel | |
| 70 | Dudley | 0.03637 | Complete-history panel | |
| 71 | Pembrokeshire | 0.03393 | Complete-history panel | |
| 72 | Leeds | 0.03298 | Complete-history panel | |
| 73 | Bedford | 0.03283 | Complete-history panel | |
| 74 | Coventry | 0.03247 | Complete-history panel | |
| 75 | Swindon | 0.03158 | Complete-history panel | |
| 76 | Powys | 0.03116 | Complete-history panel | |
| 77 | Wirral | 0.03069 | Complete-history panel | |
| 78 | Norfolk | 0.0305 | Complete-history panel | |
| 79 | Kent | 0.03021 | Complete-history panel | |
| 80 | Peterborough | 0.03002 | Complete-history panel | |
| 81 | Ceredigion | 0.02998 | Complete-history panel | |
| 82 | Sunderland | 0.02945 | Complete-history panel | |
| 83 | Surrey | 0.02935 | Complete-history panel | |
| 84 | Bracknell Forest | 0.0292 | Complete-history panel | |
| 85 | South Tyneside | 0.02906 | Complete-history panel | |
| 86 | Suffolk | 0.02893 | Complete-history panel | |
| 87 | Carmarthenshire | 0.02873 | Complete-history panel | |
| 88 | Wakefield | 0.02854 | Complete-history panel | |
| 89 | North Lincolnshire | 0.02834 | Complete-history panel | |
| 90 | Lancashire | 0.02809 | Complete-history panel | |
| 91 | St. Helens | 0.02803 | Complete-history panel | |
| 92 | Oldham | 0.02732 | Complete-history panel | |
| 93 | Nottinghamshire | 0.02721 | Complete-history panel | |
| 94 | Dorset | 0.02675 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 95 | Wiltshire | 0.02667 | Complete-history panel | |
| 96 | Bath and North East Somerset | 0.02665 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 97 | Glasgow City | 0.02659 | Complete-history panel | |
| 98 | Rotherham | 0.02603 | Complete-history panel | |
| 99 | Tameside | 0.02602 | Complete-history panel | |
| 100 | Dundee City | 0.02563 | Complete-history panel | |
| 101 | Cornwall | 0.0251 | Complete-history panel | |
| 102 | Darlington | 0.02507 | Complete-history panel | |
| 103 | East Riding of Yorkshire | 0.02486 | Complete-history panel | |
| 104 | Cumberland | 0.02441 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 105 | City of Edinburgh | 0.02427 | Complete-history panel | |
| 106 | North Tyneside | 0.02395 | Complete-history panel | |
| 107 | Blaenau Gwent | 0.02384 | Complete-history panel | |
| 108 | Hampshire | 0.02377 | Complete-history panel | |
| 109 | North Northamptonshire | 0.02376 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 110 | Essex | 0.0235 | Complete-history panel | |
| 111 | Derbyshire | 0.02263 | Complete-history panel | |
| 112 | Thurrock | 0.02209 | Complete-history panel | |
| 113 | Herefordshire, County of | 0.02195 | Complete-history panel | |
| 114 | Bolton | 0.02178 | Complete-history panel | |
| 115 | Central Bedfordshire | 0.02151 | Complete-history panel | |
| 116 | Gateshead | 0.02138 | Complete-history panel | |
| 117 | Devon | 0.02138 | Complete-history panel | |
| 118 | Hartlepool | 0.02138 | Complete-history panel | |
| 119 | Doncaster | 0.02125 | Complete-history panel | |
| 120 | North Yorkshire | 0.02095 | Complete-history panel | |
| 121 | Staffordshire | 0.02061 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 122 | Hertfordshire | 0.02056 | Complete-history panel | |
| 123 | Cheshire West and Chester | 0.01992 | Complete-history panel | |
| 124 | West Northamptonshire | 0.01985 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 125 | Halton | 0.01956 | Complete-history panel | |
| 126 | Caerphilly | 0.01944 | Complete-history panel | |
| 127 | Gloucestershire | 0.01942 | Complete-history panel | |
| 128 | Torfaen | 0.01935 | Complete-history panel | |
| 129 | Cambridgeshire | 0.01923 | Complete-history panel | |
| 130 | Rochdale | 0.01922 | Complete-history panel | |
| 131 | Wokingham | 0.01913 | Complete-history panel | |
| 132 | Stockport | 0.01902 | Complete-history panel | |
| 133 | Trafford | 0.01879 | Complete-history panel | |
| 134 | Salford | 0.01865 | Complete-history panel | |
| 135 | Cheshire East | 0.01864 | Complete-history panel | |
| 136 | Somerset | 0.01822 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 137 | Warrington | 0.01799 | Complete-history panel | |
| 138 | Oxfordshire | 0.01784 | Complete-history panel | |
| 139 | Solihull | 0.01751 | Complete-history panel | |
| 140 | Redcar and Cleveland | 0.01736 | Complete-history panel | |
| 141 | North Somerset | 0.01731 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 142 | Knowsley | 0.01714 | Complete-history panel | |
| 143 | Warwickshire | 0.01702 | Complete-history panel | |
| 144 | Wigan | 0.01699 | Complete-history panel | |
| 145 | Merthyr Tydfil | 0.01683 | Complete-history panel | |
| 146 | Milton Keynes | 0.01677 | Complete-history panel | |
| 147 | Westmorland and Furness | 0.01612 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 148 | Northumberland | 0.01595 | Complete-history panel | |
| 149 | Bury | 0.01573 | Complete-history panel | |
| 150 | Dumfries and Galloway | 0.0157 | Complete-history panel | |
| 151 | Windsor and Maidenhead | 0.01568 | Complete-history panel | |
| 152 | Telford and Wrekin | 0.01558 | Complete-history panel | |
| 153 | North Ayrshire | 0.01545 | Complete-history panel | |
| 154 | South Gloucestershire | 0.0154 | Outside complete-history panel | |
| 155 | Shropshire | 0.01526 | Complete-history panel | |
| 156 | Stockton-on-Tees | 0.01519 | Complete-history panel | |
| 157 | County Durham | 0.01516 | Complete-history panel | |
| 158 | Middlesbrough | 0.01495 | Complete-history panel | |
| 159 | Denbighshire | 0.0149 | Complete-history panel | |
| 160 | Wrexham | 0.01489 | Complete-history panel | |
| 161 | Vale of Glamorgan | 0.01475 | Complete-history panel | |
| 162 | Fife | 0.0142 | Complete-history panel | |
| 163 | Worcestershire | 0.01406 | Complete-history panel | |
| 164 | Leicestershire | 0.01361 | Complete-history panel | |
| 165 | West Lothian | 0.01352 | Complete-history panel | |
| 166 | Newport | 0.01351 | Complete-history panel | |
| 167 | Argyll and Bute | 0.01336 | Complete-history panel | |
| 168 | Cardiff | 0.01335 | Complete-history panel | |
| 169 | Midlothian | 0.01318 | Complete-history panel | |
| 170 | West Dunbartonshire | 0.01297 | Complete-history panel | |
| 171 | South Ayrshire | 0.01285 | Complete-history panel | |
| 172 | Angus | 0.0123 | Complete-history panel | |
| 173 | Highland | 0.01226 | Complete-history panel | |
| 174 | South Lanarkshire | 0.01223 | Complete-history panel | |
| 175 | Renfrewshire | 0.01218 | Complete-history panel | |
| 176 | East Renfrewshire | 0.01216 | Complete-history panel | |
| 177 | Inverclyde | 0.01196 | Complete-history panel | |
| 178 | Conwy | 0.01171 | Complete-history panel | |
| 179 | West Berkshire | 0.0117 | Complete-history panel | |
| 180 | Gwynedd | 0.01168 | Complete-history panel | |
| 181 | Monmouthshire | 0.01147 | Complete-history panel | |
| 182 | East Ayrshire | 0.01139 | Complete-history panel | |
| 183 | East Dunbartonshire | 0.01116 | Complete-history panel | |
| 184 | Clackmannanshire | 0.01062 | Complete-history panel | |
| 185 | East Lothian | 0.0103 | Complete-history panel | |
| 186 | Rhondda Cynon Taf | 0.01016 | Complete-history panel | |
| 187 | Flintshire | 0.01011 | Complete-history panel | |
| 188 | Perth and Kinross | 0.01007 | Complete-history panel | |
| 189 | Stirling | 0.00998 | Complete-history panel | |
| 190 | Rutland | 0.00989 | Complete-history panel | |
| 191 | North Lanarkshire | 0.00958 | Complete-history panel | |
| 192 | Swansea | 0.00921 | Complete-history panel | |
| 193 | Scottish Borders | 0.0092 | Complete-history panel | |
| 194 | Moray | 0.00882 | Complete-history panel | |
| 195 | Na h-Eileanan Siar | 0.00844 | Complete-history panel | |
| 196 | Orkney Islands | 0.00806 | Complete-history panel | |
| 197 | Isle of Anglesey | 0.00773 | Complete-history panel | |
| 198 | Falkirk | 0.0077 | Complete-history panel | |
| 199 | Bridgend | 0.00728 | Complete-history panel | |
| 200 | Aberdeen City | 0.00666 | Complete-history panel | |
| 201 | Neath Port Talbot | 0.0065 | Complete-history panel | |
| 202 | Aberdeenshire | 0.00597 | Complete-history panel | |
| 203 | Shetland Islands | 0.0054 | Complete-history panel | |
| Unranked | Barnsley | Unavailable | No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld | |
| Unranked | Buckinghamshire | Unavailable | Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible | |
| Unranked | Isles of Scilly | Unavailable | Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld | |
| Unranked | Sheffield | Unavailable | No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld |
What this shows: County Durham: 0.01516 collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles in 2025. Darlington: 0.02507 collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles in 2025.
What it does not show: individual postcode risk, claim cost, causal effects or pricing improvement. Injury severity is not monetary claim severity.
Injury collisions ÷ motor vehicle miles × 100,000. Missing or flagged evidence is withheld.
County Durham: numerator 438; denominator 2,888,300,000.
Darlington: numerator 137; denominator 546,400,000.
Immutable release: lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f. Values in the interface are rounded; downloads retain calculation precision.
RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input
Local authority motor vehicle mileage · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input
Formal classification uses only 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. The historical window does not alter this assessment. “Above” and “below” describe direction, not statistical significance. A count such as 2/4 is a count of eligible years, not a probability.
| Year | Recorded measure | Benchmark | Difference (%) | Assessment / reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.0317 | 0.04286 | -26.05 | Historical · Below |
| 2017 | 0.03198 | 0.0405 | -21.03 | Historical · Below |
| 2018 | 0.0282 | 0.03801 | -25.82 | Historical · Below |
| 2019 | 0.0247 | 0.03601 | -31.4 | Historical · Below |
| 2020 | 0.02295 | 0.03558 | -35.49 | Historical · Below |
| 2021 | 0.02056 | 0.03537 | -41.88 | Historical · Below |
| 2022 | 0.01877 | 0.03413 | -45.01 | Formal · Below |
| 2023 | 0.01662 | 0.03271 | -49.19 | Formal · Below |
| 2024 | 0.01606 | 0.03086 | -47.95 | Formal · Below |
| 2025 | 0.01516 | 0.03038 | -50.09 | Formal · Below |
Great Britain county / unitary authorities. Groups are frozen using discovery outcomes; later groups use ranks among eligible paired authorities. These summaries describe ordering and coverage, not ranking certainty. A national fall in rates can leave ranks unchanged.
The highest discovery group exceeds the lowest in 4 of 4 eligible later years. This compares the extreme groups; it does not establish that all five retain their order.
190 authorities have complete, unflagged mileage histories. These are the same frozen groups and calculations used in the Postcode Risk Lab. Rates pool numerators and denominators; areas are not averaged equally.
Select a point, or open Chart data for exact values. Missing observations remain gaps.
| Year | Q1 · lower discovery risk | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 · higher discovery risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.02155 | 0.02897 | 0.03782 | 0.05523 | 0.13012 |
| 2017 | 0.01865 | 0.02658 | 0.03442 | 0.05198 | 0.13694 |
| 2018 | 0.01741 | 0.02444 | 0.03221 | 0.04897 | 0.13112 |
| 2019 | 0.01615 | 0.02295 | 0.02988 | 0.04688 | 0.12704 |
| 2020 | 0.01586 | 0.02293 | 0.02846 | 0.04461 | 0.12778 |
| 2021 | 0.01498 | 0.02265 | 0.02862 | 0.04546 | 0.12775 |
| 2022 | 0.01422 | 0.02162 | 0.02833 | 0.04463 | 0.12457 |
| 2023 | 0.01439 | 0.02042 | 0.02703 | 0.04269 | 0.12082 |
| 2024 | 0.01386 | 0.01967 | 0.02622 | 0.04013 | 0.10966 |
| 2025 | 0.01326 | 0.01992 | 0.0254 | 0.03957 | 0.10898 |
| Group | Year | Rate | Authorities | Injury collisions | Motor miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 2016 | 0.02155 | 38 | 10,969 | 50,899,100,000 |
| Q1 | 2017 | 0.01865 | 38 | 9,673 | 51,865,300,000 |
| Q1 | 2018 | 0.01741 | 38 | 9,045 | 51,961,100,000 |
| Q1 | 2019 | 0.01615 | 38 | 8,494 | 52,590,100,000 |
| Q1 | 2020 | 0.01586 | 38 | 6,361 | 40,108,800,000 |
| Q1 | 2021 | 0.01498 | 38 | 6,851 | 45,734,500,000 |
| Q1 | 2022 | 0.01422 | 38 | 7,174 | 50,457,500,000 |
| Q1 | 2023 | 0.01439 | 38 | 7,448 | 51,765,300,000 |
| Q1 | 2024 | 0.01386 | 38 | 7,304 | 52,701,300,000 |
| Q1 | 2025 | 0.01326 | 38 | 7,107 | 53,616,700,000 |
| Q2 | 2016 | 0.02897 | 38 | 23,526 | 81,212,500,000 |
| Q2 | 2017 | 0.02658 | 38 | 21,906 | 82,418,200,000 |
| Q2 | 2018 | 0.02444 | 38 | 20,260 | 82,881,700,000 |
| Q2 | 2019 | 0.02295 | 38 | 19,283 | 84,009,900,000 |
| Q2 | 2020 | 0.02293 | 38 | 15,021 | 65,513,900,000 |
| Q2 | 2021 | 0.02265 | 38 | 16,705 | 73,753,400,000 |
| Q2 | 2022 | 0.02162 | 38 | 17,434 | 80,647,300,000 |
| Q2 | 2023 | 0.02042 | 38 | 16,856 | 82,541,000,000 |
| Q2 | 2024 | 0.01967 | 38 | 16,504 | 83,905,200,000 |
| Q2 | 2025 | 0.01992 | 38 | 17,037 | 85,530,500,000 |
| Q3 | 2016 | 0.03782 | 38 | 29,596 | 78,246,500,000 |
| Q3 | 2017 | 0.03442 | 38 | 27,353 | 79,476,000,000 |
| Q3 | 2018 | 0.03221 | 38 | 25,823 | 80,164,100,000 |
| Q3 | 2019 | 0.02988 | 38 | 24,295 | 81,320,300,000 |
| Q3 | 2020 | 0.02846 | 38 | 18,309 | 64,343,700,000 |
| Q3 | 2021 | 0.02862 | 38 | 20,494 | 71,613,600,000 |
| Q3 | 2022 | 0.02833 | 38 | 22,021 | 77,731,400,000 |
| Q3 | 2023 | 0.02703 | 38 | 21,464 | 79,408,500,000 |
| Q3 | 2024 | 0.02622 | 38 | 21,080 | 80,411,200,000 |
| Q3 | 2025 | 0.0254 | 38 | 20,918 | 82,340,100,000 |
| Q4 | 2016 | 0.05523 | 38 | 31,991 | 57,922,600,000 |
| Q4 | 2017 | 0.05198 | 38 | 30,428 | 58,543,500,000 |
| Q4 | 2018 | 0.04897 | 38 | 28,785 | 58,786,000,000 |
| Q4 | 2019 | 0.04688 | 38 | 27,856 | 59,416,500,000 |
| Q4 | 2020 | 0.04461 | 38 | 21,191 | 47,506,000,000 |
| Q4 | 2021 | 0.04546 | 38 | 23,825 | 52,403,900,000 |
| Q4 | 2022 | 0.04463 | 38 | 25,399 | 56,906,300,000 |
| Q4 | 2023 | 0.04269 | 38 | 24,807 | 58,110,200,000 |
| Q4 | 2024 | 0.04013 | 38 | 23,719 | 59,100,600,000 |
| Q4 | 2025 | 0.03957 | 38 | 23,775 | 60,076,100,000 |
| Q5 | 2016 | 0.13012 | 38 | 28,185 | 21,660,300,000 |
| Q5 | 2017 | 0.13694 | 38 | 29,699 | 21,688,100,000 |
| Q5 | 2018 | 0.13112 | 38 | 28,396 | 21,656,800,000 |
| Q5 | 2019 | 0.12704 | 38 | 27,835 | 21,909,900,000 |
| Q5 | 2020 | 0.12778 | 38 | 22,869 | 17,896,700,000 |
| Q5 | 2021 | 0.12775 | 38 | 25,230 | 19,748,800,000 |
| Q5 | 2022 | 0.12457 | 38 | 25,730 | 20,655,200,000 |
| Q5 | 2023 | 0.12082 | 38 | 25,149 | 20,815,700,000 |
| Q5 | 2024 | 0.10966 | 38 | 23,120 | 21,084,000,000 |
| Q5 | 2025 | 0.10898 | 38 | 23,170 | 21,260,500,000 |
County Durham: discovery Q3, later Q2; 0.02906 → 0.01662 collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles. Group membership changes in the later period.
Continue with the same authority, metric and release in STATS19Rank correlation: 0.954 across 190 eligible areas. The dashed line marks equal rates. A shift in the national level can move all points without changing their order.
Select a point or read the accompanying data table.
| Authority | Earlier rate | Later rate | Earlier count | Later count | Later miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County Durham | 0.02906 | 0.01662 | 3,084 | 1,861 | 11,194,500,000 |
| Darlington | 0.0383 | 0.02244 | 779 | 477 | 2,126,100,000 |
| Gateshead | 0.03539 | 0.02455 | 1,510 | 1,087 | 4,427,000,000 |
| Hartlepool | 0.02599 | 0.02289 | 407 | 380 | 1,659,900,000 |
| Middlesbrough | 0.02978 | 0.02026 | 872 | 693 | 3,419,900,000 |
| Newcastle upon Tyne | 0.05257 | 0.04091 | 2,269 | 1,801 | 4,402,600,000 |
| North Tyneside | 0.03641 | 0.02649 | 1,164 | 892 | 3,367,100,000 |
| Northumberland | 0.02932 | 0.01984 | 2,275 | 1,640 | 8,266,200,000 |
| Redcar and Cleveland | 0.02374 | 0.02018 | 542 | 484 | 2,397,900,000 |
| South Tyneside | 0.04526 | 0.03084 | 851 | 628 | 2,036,200,000 |
| Stockton-on-Tees | 0.02523 | 0.01915 | 905 | 712 | 3,718,600,000 |
| Sunderland | 0.04058 | 0.03008 | 1,728 | 1,313 | 4,365,000,000 |
| Blackburn with Darwen | 0.08022 | 0.06551 | 1,435 | 1,146 | 1,749,400,000 |
| Blackpool | 0.10928 | 0.09264 | 1,459 | 1,218 | 1,314,700,000 |
| Bolton | 0.03253 | 0.02324 | 1,652 | 1,208 | 5,198,100,000 |
| Bury | 0.02224 | 0.0168 | 906 | 683 | 4,065,100,000 |
| Cheshire East | 0.02554 | 0.01974 | 2,978 | 2,357 | 11,940,900,000 |
| Cheshire West and Chester | 0.02699 | 0.02059 | 2,720 | 2,091 | 10,153,000,000 |
| Halton | 0.03363 | 0.02201 | 885 | 568 | 2,581,200,000 |
| Knowsley | 0.02222 | 0.01977 | 855 | 809 | 4,091,900,000 |
| Lancashire | 0.03656 | 0.02951 | 10,456 | 8,614 | 29,194,200,000 |
| Liverpool | 0.06907 | 0.06678 | 3,802 | 3,605 | 5,398,000,000 |
| Manchester | 0.0548 | 0.04078 | 3,663 | 2,769 | 6,790,100,000 |
| Oldham | 0.04355 | 0.02845 | 1,218 | 821 | 2,886,200,000 |
| Rochdale | 0.02522 | 0.01792 | 1,074 | 799 | 4,458,300,000 |
| Salford | 0.02552 | 0.01903 | 1,469 | 1,106 | 5,812,900,000 |
| Sefton | 0.06009 | 0.04607 | 1,751 | 1,350 | 2,930,200,000 |
| St. Helens | 0.02846 | 0.0277 | 983 | 942 | 3,400,400,000 |
| Stockport | 0.02297 | 0.01805 | 1,093 | 891 | 4,935,200,000 |
| Tameside | 0.03515 | 0.02782 | 1,049 | 849 | 3,051,600,000 |
| Trafford | 0.02837 | 0.01944 | 1,054 | 758 | 3,898,800,000 |
| Warrington | 0.02556 | 0.01763 | 1,749 | 1,236 | 7,009,500,000 |
| Wigan | 0.02425 | 0.01917 | 1,183 | 954 | 4,976,300,000 |
| Wirral | 0.04131 | 0.03481 | 1,778 | 1,522 | 4,372,000,000 |
| Bradford | 0.06292 | 0.06895 | 3,971 | 4,104 | 5,952,400,000 |
| Calderdale | 0.03379 | 0.03902 | 1,329 | 1,490 | 3,818,400,000 |
| Doncaster | 0.03173 | 0.02432 | 2,711 | 2,101 | 8,637,900,000 |
| East Riding of Yorkshire | 0.03084 | 0.02539 | 2,846 | 2,366 | 9,317,500,000 |
| Kingston upon Hull, City of | 0.10328 | 0.08809 | 3,192 | 2,630 | 2,985,700,000 |
| Kirklees | 0.03939 | 0.03929 | 2,770 | 2,692 | 6,850,900,000 |
| Leeds | 0.03887 | 0.0355 | 6,638 | 5,907 | 16,637,900,000 |
| North East Lincolnshire | 0.06579 | 0.05535 | 1,660 | 1,343 | 2,426,500,000 |
| North Lincolnshire | 0.0358 | 0.03 | 1,634 | 1,359 | 4,529,600,000 |
| North Yorkshire | 0.02376 | 0.01936 | 5,238 | 4,198 | 21,678,700,000 |
| Rotherham | 0.03159 | 0.02691 | 1,968 | 1,693 | 6,290,500,000 |
| Wakefield | 0.03103 | 0.03198 | 2,379 | 2,405 | 7,521,200,000 |
| York | 0.04896 | 0.03717 | 1,638 | 1,227 | 3,301,100,000 |
| Derby | 0.04306 | 0.03965 | 1,927 | 1,909 | 4,814,300,000 |
| Derbyshire | 0.02353 | 0.02407 | 4,996 | 5,239 | 21,769,100,000 |
| Leicester | 0.07358 | 0.04478 | 2,765 | 1,819 | 4,062,500,000 |
| Leicestershire | 0.01819 | 0.01338 | 3,704 | 2,796 | 20,894,600,000 |
| Lincolnshire | 0.04544 | 0.03897 | 7,669 | 6,764 | 17,355,000,000 |
| Nottingham | 0.08584 | 0.06955 | 3,494 | 2,945 | 4,234,200,000 |
| Nottinghamshire | 0.03269 | 0.02665 | 6,370 | 5,169 | 19,395,600,000 |
| Rutland | 0.01302 | 0.0075 | 231 | 130 | 1,733,700,000 |
| Birmingham | 0.07259 | 0.0629 | 10,705 | 9,181 | 14,596,900,000 |
| Coventry | 0.05105 | 0.03266 | 2,488 | 1,579 | 4,834,100,000 |
| Dudley | 0.0412 | 0.03836 | 1,761 | 1,620 | 4,222,600,000 |
| Herefordshire, County of | 0.02872 | 0.02458 | 1,412 | 1,211 | 4,927,100,000 |
| Sandwell | 0.04617 | 0.04443 | 2,452 | 2,377 | 5,350,100,000 |
| Shropshire | 0.02496 | 0.01731 | 2,109 | 1,491 | 8,615,100,000 |
| Solihull | 0.01791 | 0.01809 | 1,105 | 1,037 | 5,733,100,000 |
| Telford and Wrekin | 0.02322 | 0.01632 | 860 | 614 | 3,762,500,000 |
| Walsall | 0.05217 | 0.0386 | 2,021 | 1,556 | 4,031,400,000 |
| Warwickshire | 0.02105 | 0.01643 | 5,142 | 4,034 | 24,553,300,000 |
| Wolverhampton | 0.06627 | 0.05754 | 1,956 | 1,637 | 2,845,000,000 |
| Worcestershire | 0.02107 | 0.01522 | 3,708 | 2,752 | 18,082,600,000 |
| Bedford | 0.04526 | 0.03562 | 1,526 | 1,242 | 3,486,600,000 |
| Cambridgeshire | 0.02842 | 0.0208 | 5,637 | 4,296 | 20,658,400,000 |
| Central Bedfordshire | 0.0308 | 0.02439 | 2,589 | 2,092 | 8,575,700,000 |
| Essex | 0.02781 | 0.02407 | 10,565 | 9,333 | 38,778,400,000 |
| Hertfordshire | 0.02964 | 0.02302 | 8,898 | 6,776 | 29,432,800,000 |
| Luton | 0.09608 | 0.0762 | 1,959 | 1,543 | 2,024,900,000 |
| Norfolk | 0.03319 | 0.02851 | 7,059 | 6,238 | 21,877,700,000 |
| Peterborough | 0.04253 | 0.03022 | 2,047 | 1,481 | 4,900,300,000 |
| Southend-on-Sea | 0.07072 | 0.06853 | 1,148 | 1,081 | 1,577,400,000 |
| Suffolk | 0.03622 | 0.02701 | 5,985 | 4,476 | 16,573,700,000 |
| Thurrock | 0.02934 | 0.02251 | 1,292 | 1,015 | 4,509,700,000 |
| Barking and Dagenham | 0.13976 | 0.11633 | 2,307 | 1,879 | 1,615,300,000 |
| Barnet | 0.08492 | 0.07817 | 3,780 | 3,276 | 4,190,800,000 |
| Bexley | 0.07368 | 0.0638 | 1,883 | 1,587 | 2,487,500,000 |
| Brent | 0.15054 | 0.13907 | 3,768 | 3,371 | 2,423,900,000 |
| Bromley | 0.08481 | 0.06851 | 3,055 | 2,424 | 3,538,300,000 |
| Camden | 0.28256 | 0.25195 | 3,482 | 2,779 | 1,103,000,000 |
| City of London | 0.31767 | 0.24542 | 1,210 | 723 | 294,600,000 |
| Croydon | 0.11062 | 0.11668 | 3,716 | 3,902 | 3,344,100,000 |
| Ealing | 0.11806 | 0.10225 | 3,995 | 3,256 | 3,184,300,000 |
| Enfield | 0.08007 | 0.08364 | 3,522 | 3,721 | 4,448,900,000 |
| Greenwich | 0.0943 | 0.08095 | 2,809 | 2,412 | 2,979,500,000 |
| Hackney | 0.29798 | 0.27648 | 3,458 | 3,007 | 1,087,600,000 |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | 0.20455 | 0.184 | 2,673 | 2,217 | 1,204,900,000 |
| Haringey | 0.26459 | 0.2577 | 3,619 | 3,306 | 1,282,900,000 |
| Harrow | 0.11687 | 0.10086 | 1,902 | 1,612 | 1,598,200,000 |
| Havering | 0.05348 | 0.04648 | 2,379 | 2,090 | 4,496,900,000 |
| Hillingdon | 0.04853 | 0.04588 | 2,969 | 2,686 | 5,854,600,000 |
| Hounslow | 0.07689 | 0.06764 | 3,266 | 2,765 | 4,088,100,000 |
| Islington | 0.31941 | 0.25669 | 3,143 | 2,313 | 901,100,000 |
| Kensington and Chelsea | 0.22494 | 0.19385 | 2,879 | 2,377 | 1,226,200,000 |
| Kingston upon Thames | 0.05331 | 0.0476 | 1,326 | 1,140 | 2,395,200,000 |
| Lambeth | 0.26421 | 0.21896 | 5,031 | 3,972 | 1,814,000,000 |
| Lewisham | 0.17747 | 0.16678 | 3,421 | 2,976 | 1,784,400,000 |
| Merton | 0.12154 | 0.1042 | 2,006 | 1,674 | 1,606,600,000 |
| Newham | 0.14964 | 0.14156 | 3,508 | 3,232 | 2,283,200,000 |
| Redbridge | 0.09809 | 0.08814 | 2,938 | 2,543 | 2,885,200,000 |
| Richmond upon Thames | 0.07773 | 0.0707 | 1,683 | 1,436 | 2,031,000,000 |
| Southwark | 0.2431 | 0.22651 | 4,369 | 3,899 | 1,721,300,000 |
| Sutton | 0.08946 | 0.07674 | 1,618 | 1,410 | 1,837,400,000 |
| Tower Hamlets | 0.20614 | 0.18957 | 4,498 | 3,895 | 2,054,700,000 |
| Waltham Forest | 0.13353 | 0.10447 | 2,713 | 2,069 | 1,980,400,000 |
| Wandsworth | 0.20374 | 0.19758 | 3,964 | 3,599 | 1,821,500,000 |
| Westminster | 0.29763 | 0.26459 | 6,305 | 4,769 | 1,802,400,000 |
| Bracknell Forest | 0.03106 | 0.02594 | 558 | 455 | 1,754,000,000 |
| Brighton and Hove | 0.08808 | 0.07752 | 2,829 | 2,349 | 3,030,100,000 |
| East Sussex | 0.0488 | 0.04276 | 5,287 | 4,492 | 10,505,300,000 |
| Hampshire | 0.02729 | 0.02392 | 10,652 | 9,114 | 38,095,000,000 |
| Isle of Wight | 0.0733 | 0.0607 | 1,211 | 968 | 1,594,700,000 |
| Kent | 0.04225 | 0.03349 | 16,022 | 12,684 | 37,873,100,000 |
| Medway | 0.06907 | 0.05612 | 2,409 | 1,956 | 3,485,300,000 |
| Milton Keynes | 0.03385 | 0.0203 | 2,121 | 1,221 | 6,014,300,000 |
| Oxfordshire | 0.02571 | 0.01869 | 5,033 | 3,521 | 18,839,100,000 |
| Portsmouth | 0.06949 | 0.06054 | 2,106 | 1,819 | 3,004,400,000 |
| Reading | 0.07586 | 0.07564 | 1,131 | 1,072 | 1,417,200,000 |
| Slough | 0.06485 | 0.04824 | 1,326 | 908 | 1,882,300,000 |
| Southampton | 0.08227 | 0.0765 | 2,095 | 1,865 | 2,437,900,000 |
| Surrey | 0.03845 | 0.03106 | 13,326 | 10,475 | 33,721,600,000 |
| West Berkshire | 0.01221 | 0.0113 | 952 | 821 | 7,268,500,000 |
| West Sussex | 0.04361 | 0.04033 | 7,787 | 6,930 | 17,184,400,000 |
| Windsor and Maidenhead | 0.02286 | 0.01626 | 1,049 | 709 | 4,359,600,000 |
| Wokingham | 0.02006 | 0.018 | 829 | 707 | 3,928,200,000 |
| Cornwall | 0.03378 | 0.0275 | 4,659 | 3,874 | 14,088,600,000 |
| Devon | 0.02723 | 0.02112 | 6,300 | 5,024 | 23,783,500,000 |
| Gloucestershire | 0.01859 | 0.02236 | 3,268 | 3,893 | 17,411,500,000 |
| Plymouth | 0.05421 | 0.04098 | 2,031 | 1,608 | 3,923,500,000 |
| Swindon | 0.03095 | 0.03274 | 1,665 | 1,612 | 4,923,100,000 |
| Torbay | 0.05828 | 0.04121 | 1,010 | 696 | 1,688,800,000 |
| Wiltshire | 0.02496 | 0.02553 | 3,867 | 3,811 | 14,926,800,000 |
| Aberdeen City | 0.01652 | 0.00761 | 571 | 290 | 3,808,300,000 |
| Aberdeenshire | 0.01295 | 0.00707 | 1,016 | 562 | 7,953,200,000 |
| Angus | 0.01637 | 0.01334 | 464 | 374 | 2,803,400,000 |
| Argyll and Bute | 0.02687 | 0.01508 | 652 | 362 | 2,399,900,000 |
| City of Edinburgh | 0.04663 | 0.02508 | 3,533 | 1,907 | 7,603,700,000 |
| Clackmannanshire | 0.02236 | 0.01082 | 186 | 92 | 850,500,000 |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 0.0174 | 0.01411 | 959 | 791 | 5,607,700,000 |
| Dundee City | 0.02297 | 0.0253 | 477 | 539 | 2,130,300,000 |
| East Ayrshire | 0.02053 | 0.012 | 576 | 347 | 2,891,700,000 |
| East Dunbartonshire | 0.02213 | 0.01058 | 307 | 149 | 1,407,700,000 |
| East Lothian | 0.0222 | 0.01221 | 543 | 316 | 2,589,000,000 |
| East Renfrewshire | 0.01666 | 0.01224 | 327 | 244 | 1,994,100,000 |
| Falkirk | 0.01839 | 0.00932 | 747 | 371 | 3,981,000,000 |
| Fife | 0.01829 | 0.01367 | 1,395 | 1,037 | 7,586,300,000 |
| Glasgow City | 0.04604 | 0.02687 | 4,100 | 2,395 | 8,913,600,000 |
| Highland | 0.01955 | 0.01275 | 1,411 | 983 | 7,712,700,000 |
| Inverclyde | 0.0287 | 0.0117 | 378 | 153 | 1,307,400,000 |
| Midlothian | 0.03059 | 0.018 | 536 | 312 | 1,733,300,000 |
| Moray | 0.01195 | 0.00838 | 236 | 170 | 2,029,800,000 |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | 0.01444 | 0.00934 | 86 | 52 | 556,800,000 |
| North Ayrshire | 0.03147 | 0.01796 | 624 | 360 | 2,004,100,000 |
| North Lanarkshire | 0.0205 | 0.01034 | 1,655 | 875 | 8,459,800,000 |
| Orkney Islands | 0.01978 | 0.01123 | 74 | 42 | 373,900,000 |
| Perth and Kinross | 0.01074 | 0.00949 | 689 | 604 | 6,364,700,000 |
| Renfrewshire | 0.02311 | 0.01215 | 921 | 494 | 4,066,100,000 |
| Scottish Borders | 0.02195 | 0.01146 | 707 | 362 | 3,158,800,000 |
| Shetland Islands | 0.01331 | 0.0077 | 77 | 44 | 571,500,000 |
| South Ayrshire | 0.02358 | 0.01094 | 609 | 288 | 2,631,600,000 |
| South Lanarkshire | 0.02277 | 0.01343 | 1,573 | 952 | 7,090,600,000 |
| Stirling | 0.01699 | 0.01103 | 564 | 354 | 3,210,500,000 |
| West Dunbartonshire | 0.02391 | 0.01144 | 397 | 193 | 1,687,200,000 |
| West Lothian | 0.02425 | 0.01295 | 1,135 | 614 | 4,741,100,000 |
| Blaenau Gwent | 0.0246 | 0.0217 | 263 | 226 | 1,041,600,000 |
| Bridgend | 0.02099 | 0.00927 | 740 | 323 | 3,484,700,000 |
| Caerphilly | 0.0238 | 0.02045 | 715 | 600 | 2,933,400,000 |
| Cardiff | 0.02343 | 0.01368 | 1,810 | 1,080 | 7,895,700,000 |
| Carmarthenshire | 0.02943 | 0.02569 | 1,540 | 1,310 | 5,099,600,000 |
| Ceredigion | 0.03454 | 0.03272 | 696 | 615 | 1,879,300,000 |
| Conwy | 0.02269 | 0.01342 | 725 | 434 | 3,233,500,000 |
| Denbighshire | 0.02863 | 0.01989 | 676 | 448 | 2,252,400,000 |
| Flintshire | 0.01712 | 0.01332 | 762 | 581 | 4,362,900,000 |
| Gwynedd | 0.02134 | 0.01451 | 746 | 502 | 3,458,800,000 |
| Isle of Anglesey | 0.0181 | 0.0113 | 301 | 187 | 1,654,200,000 |
| Merthyr Tydfil | 0.03359 | 0.01572 | 351 | 174 | 1,106,900,000 |
| Monmouthshire | 0.01152 | 0.01102 | 431 | 415 | 3,767,100,000 |
| Neath Port Talbot | 0.02075 | 0.00889 | 732 | 309 | 3,476,800,000 |
| Newport | 0.01697 | 0.01334 | 845 | 658 | 4,932,300,000 |
| Pembrokeshire | 0.0353 | 0.03112 | 1,030 | 885 | 2,843,800,000 |
| Powys | 0.03437 | 0.03231 | 1,445 | 1,304 | 4,035,300,000 |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 0.02281 | 0.01224 | 1,245 | 672 | 5,490,100,000 |
| Swansea | 0.02898 | 0.01211 | 1,302 | 546 | 4,508,700,000 |
| Torfaen | 0.02033 | 0.01948 | 334 | 337 | 1,730,100,000 |
| Vale of Glamorgan | 0.02275 | 0.01439 | 625 | 389 | 2,703,000,000 |
| Wrexham | 0.02527 | 0.01778 | 689 | 480 | 2,699,600,000 |
Rows are the frozen discovery groups. Columns rank the same eligible areas in the later period. Darker cells indicate a greater share; each non-empty row sums to 100% before rounding.
| Earlier ↓ / later → | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 73.7%28 / 38 areas in this row | 23.7%9 / 38 areas in this row | 2.6%1 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row |
| Q2 | 21.1%8 / 38 areas in this row | 57.9%22 / 38 areas in this row | 21.1%8 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row |
| Q3 | 5.3%2 / 38 areas in this row | 18.4%7 / 38 areas in this row | 60.5%23 / 38 areas in this row | 15.8%6 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row |
| Q4 | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 15.8%6 / 38 areas in this row | 78.9%30 / 38 areas in this row | 5.3%2 / 38 areas in this row |
| Q5 | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 0%0 / 38 areas in this row | 5.3%2 / 38 areas in this row | 94.7%36 / 38 areas in this row |
Each horizon repeats the comparison across eligible pairs of individual years. Correlations are descriptive; the overlapping tests are not independent evidence.
| Years ahead | Year pairs | Median correlation | Range | Mean excluding pandemic endpoints |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 0.981 | 0.959–0.989 | 0.979 |
| 2 | 8 | 0.975 | 0.945–0.977 | 0.968 |
| 3 | 7 | 0.955 | 0.939–0.976 | 0.957 |
| 5 | 5 | 0.95 | 0.911–0.965 | 0.946 |
| Horizon | Earlier year | Later year | Areas | Rank correlation | Pandemic endpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 2017 | 187 | 0.959 | No |
| 1 | 2017 | 2018 | 187 | 0.981 | No |
| 1 | 2018 | 2019 | 188 | 0.977 | No |
| 1 | 2019 | 2020 | 187 | 0.967 | Yes |
| 1 | 2020 | 2021 | 186 | 0.979 | Yes |
| 1 | 2021 | 2022 | 186 | 0.986 | Yes |
| 1 | 2022 | 2023 | 187 | 0.985 | No |
| 1 | 2023 | 2024 | 187 | 0.982 | No |
| 1 | 2024 | 2025 | 187 | 0.989 | No |
| 2 | 2016 | 2018 | 188 | 0.945 | No |
| 2 | 2017 | 2019 | 187 | 0.974 | No |
| 2 | 2018 | 2020 | 187 | 0.954 | Yes |
| 2 | 2019 | 2021 | 187 | 0.963 | Yes |
| 2 | 2020 | 2022 | 187 | 0.977 | Yes |
| 2 | 2021 | 2023 | 186 | 0.976 | Yes |
| 2 | 2022 | 2024 | 187 | 0.977 | No |
| 2 | 2023 | 2025 | 187 | 0.976 | No |
| 3 | 2016 | 2019 | 190 | 0.939 | No |
| 3 | 2017 | 2020 | 187 | 0.946 | Yes |
| 3 | 2018 | 2021 | 187 | 0.952 | Yes |
| 3 | 2019 | 2022 | 187 | 0.955 | No |
| 3 | 2020 | 2023 | 187 | 0.974 | Yes |
| 3 | 2021 | 2024 | 186 | 0.971 | Yes |
| 3 | 2022 | 2025 | 187 | 0.976 | No |
| 5 | 2016 | 2021 | 187 | 0.911 | Yes |
| 5 | 2017 | 2022 | 187 | 0.932 | No |
| 5 | 2018 | 2023 | 187 | 0.95 | No |
| 5 | 2019 | 2024 | 187 | 0.957 | No |
| 5 | 2020 | 2025 | 187 | 0.965 | Yes |
This is a retrospective persistence test. Complete-area selection, stable reporting differences and road mix can all affect the result. It is not a causal effect or an insurer pricing validation.
RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input
Local authority motor vehicle mileage · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input
RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input
STATS19 annual releases · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23
Road safety table index · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23
Resident travel and rural/urban classification · Annual series; 2024 classification break · accessed 2026-09-23
Geography can describe several different mechanisms. The evidence should keep them separate.
Beyond Postcodes · Johan StrydomAuthority-level patterns support investigation, but cannot establish within-postcode differences or pricing lift without geocoded insurer exposure and held-out claims.
Study design and validation protocolGeographic sources and reproducibility
Police-reported injury collisions on roads in this area, divided by motor vehicle miles travelled in the same area. Not all insurance claims.
Unit: collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles
Killed or seriously injured casualties, adjusted by DfT for reporting changes. Not claim cost or the probability of a claim.
Unit: killed or seriously injured casualties / 100,000 motor vehicle miles
People killed, divided by motor vehicle miles. Road casualty outcomes do not establish monetary claim severity.
Unit: fatalities / 100,000 motor vehicle miles
DfT-adjusted fatal or serious collisions divided by all reported injury collisions. The denominator is collisions, not miles.
Unit: % injury collisions fatal or serious
Traffic occurring on roads in the area. This is not the annual mileage of residents or vehicles kept here.
Unit: billion motor vehicle miles
These five public-data measures are different from Johan’s proprietary Postcode Risk Indices. The indices await validated definitions and inputs; no index values are published here.
Source monitoring does not change these published findings. A changed page may contain a document or wording update; it is not an approved new result.
Analysis validated: 4 Oct 2026. Missing dates are shown as “Date unavailable”.
| Source | Evidence period | Source published | Checked in release | Latest check | Monitoring state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 21 Oct 2026 | No source issue recorded |
| Local authority motor vehicle mileage | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 21 Oct 2026 | No source issue recorded |
| RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 21 Oct 2026 | No source issue recorded |
| Counties and Unitary Authorities December 2025 boundaries | December 2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Rainfall — England | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Rainfall — Wales | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Rainfall — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Air frost — England | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Air frost — Wales | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Air frost — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — England | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — Wales | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Wet days ≥1 mm — Scotland | 2016–2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Recorded vehicle offences by police force | Calendar 2016–2025; source updated 23 July 2026 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | Date unavailable | No live check linked |
| Police Force Areas December 2023 boundaries | December 2023 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Properties in river and sea flood hazard | June 2026 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Properties in surface-water flood hazard | September 2025 | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| STATS19 annual releases | Latest available release | Date unavailable | 26 Sept 2026 | 16 Oct 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Road safety table index | Latest available release | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 16 Oct 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Police street-level crime | Monthly releases | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 21 Oct 2026 | No source issue recorded |
| River and sea flood hazard | Current hazard model | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Surface-water flood hazard | Current hazard model | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Resident travel and rural/urban classification | Annual series; 2024 classification break | Date unavailable | 23 Sept 2026 | 23 Sept 2026 | Source content changed; review pending |
| Anonymised MOT data | Annual releases | Date unavailable | 22 Sept 2026 | 22 Oct 2026 | No source issue recorded |
lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f