POSTCODE RISK LAB

Do geographic differences persist?

Explore road outcomes across authorities and test whether differences recur in later years. These public proxies do not measure postcode-level insurance claims.

Public geographic evidence. Johan’s five proprietary Postcode Risk Indices are not published here. Their definitions and inputs still require validation and approval.

Explore geographic evidence

2016–2025 · Counties and unitary authorities, December 2025

THE ACTUARY LENSGEOGRAPHY · EVIDENCE · PERSISTENCE

Beyond Postcodes — Geo Risk

Unpack geography. Follow the risk. Test whether the differences endure.

Read the white paper

Official sources · 2016–2025207 areas · 2,070 area-yearsPublic evidence, not a validated insurance tariff

Sources & downloads · County Durham · Injury collision frequency · Map year 2025 · History 2016–2025 · Assessment 2022–2025

Release and terminology

lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f

KSI = killed or seriously injured. FSC = fatal or serious collisions. GB = Great Britain. UK = United Kingdom. DfT = Department for Transport. ONS = Office for National Statistics. PFA = police force area. NRD = National Receptor Dataset. These public outcomes are not insurance claim costs.

REPRODUCIBLE BY DESIGN

Every result has a denominator, a period and a source.

All maps, charts and downloads read this immutable evidence release. Observation periods, source publication, extraction, source checks, tracker publication and human review are separate dates. A source check is not an update to its observations. Dates below are frozen with this release, not a live scheduler status. The master pipeline checks sources on their configured cadence; changed or failed evidence holds the affected publication group for review.

2,004road rows reconciled to official rates

80road rows flagged; withheld from comparisons

24sources registered in the master pipeline

Not recordeddocumented human dataset review

What the checks establish

Collision counts and traffic join by exact ONS authority code and year. A discrepancy greater than 0.5% against the published DfT collision rate suppresses the rate. Source missing values remain missing. Severity adjustments retain their published precision. Reporting warnings prevent a persistence conclusion.

Flood tables join exact published authority names to the code register, with unmatched authorities left blank. Police-force names have one explicit alias (“Devon and Cornwall”); no nearest-area matching is used. The source manifest retains raw-file SHA-256 hashes and frozen boundary versions.

Release identifier: lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f
Source access / extraction: 2026-09-23
Public road observations: 2016–2025
Validation: Automated structural, reconciliation and provenance checks
Scheduler: Existing Lens Master Pipeline · due-only source checks

Fetching a page does not update its data period, certify a claim or constitute human review. New numeric releases require a reviewed extraction and the shared publication gate.

Department for Transport

RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority

All roads; latest geography in the workbook. Severity-adjusted FSC and KSI. Reporting warnings for Avon and Somerset and Staffordshire in 2022–2023 are excluded from persistence tests.

SHA-256 and provenance

ac551fbf73f4b8ccb11dbfbdbf8bc312be2f897d3103260c1552483d602259d2

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Department for Transport

Local authority motor vehicle mileage

Motor vehicle miles; pedal cycles excluded. Exact authority code and year join. Independent rate reconciliation against RAS0403; mismatches are suppressed.

SHA-256 and provenance

058a61b9f6f7d07a9363c339829c6723fdecc4270f500611d1790eae6da7b9fc

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Department for Transport

RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates

National road-type rates include pedal-cycle miles. Kept separate from local-authority motor-mile rates.

SHA-256 and provenance

e99e5108bcddefbce642ac01006a73a17c138d97e6e95ad55e67cccbf900ff58

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Office for National Statistics

Counties and Unitary Authorities December 2025 boundaries

ONS BGC source generalized to approximately 500 m for display. Boundaries are not address-level hazard determinations.

SHA-256 and provenance

e3569b2f82047945fc9a748a45c5fdc74e860f218f03db68967035b3132dead0

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Rainfall — England

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

ae926efaa48df47023a47c80512725e8b32d82fa0271a36be4575ead1d94e78a

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Rainfall — Wales

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

d04d3a66cbe2bf7dc84f3be477932802cbc9a7df9fffcd2bf3d7335dc5daf23a

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Rainfall — Scotland

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

44061c994011cc13fe6346b7d6d0546769a863f9aa48570dd98a6a89b3f26902

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Air frost — England

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

d15bb5a138dfc75f2f4c1ae19b8b58160666868d68214e8fc58f003d87ad0a3c

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Air frost — Wales

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

588c9c4f0b9d98ee2100a8c53c6168a4518382bf2433748ac6b1ee643fc5f4f7

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Air frost — Scotland

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

102f9c6243bea1e29a08e22612ff3a2d7950ce0c1f34d525c02eecb7047eaf08

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Wet days ≥1 mm — England

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

bada4e7164c5ca7495e8c1c8c5993ea0fb3cd27e7a5c2d103298c0ad7def98be

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Wet days ≥1 mm — Wales

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

48f45b6d8d8ab66badc639117ec2bfaf83e7d8817b14cf0fd8d93a211aaf11eb

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Wet days ≥1 mm — Scotland

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

b0a06703d142657054a6bc6154b0aacff75b04187b4254f25507d5990cc5490b

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Home Office

Recorded vehicle offences by police force

Sum of offence codes 37.2, 126, 45 and 48. Financial Q4 assigned to the following calendar year. Counts, not theft rates; no parked-vehicle denominator. Force recording practices vary; missing counts suppressed. British Transport Police excluded; Devon and Cornwall explicitly mapped to ONS Devon & Cornwall.

SHA-256 and provenance

ae6f37357ae3104fb8f04de861cd2effe0a1ddce482beeed6f3f77cb8892d2f5

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Office for National Statistics

Police Force Areas December 2023 boundaries

Exact official force name match with explicit Devon and Cornwall alias; no areal allocation of British Transport Police.

SHA-256 and provenance

fe61220be6204fd98e4c16bc8ca073db13dec71b5fd5c54e37ac9c142641daee

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Environment Agency

Properties in river and sea flood hazard

Current model snapshot using NRD 2023 properties. High ≥3.3% annual flood chance; medium 1–3.3%. Percentage of ALL properties in the authority. Exact LLFA name match to DfT/ONS authority register. Not motor-loss experience and not historical yearly evidence.

SHA-256 and provenance

6d9b87158cefa2d4ec023d8d0b7e90a1f46a3beddfa8de7746772d334e667f83

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Environment Agency

Properties in surface-water flood hazard

SHA-256 and provenance

fbca3ecee99f5d901ded03260f7dbd965c1a7894510c4b7ef500172c044df3a9

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Department for Transport

STATS19 annual releases

Shared STATS19 monitor; official tables above supply this initial release.

Department for Transport

Road safety table index

Detect new table URLs and revisions; changed evidence needs review.

Police.uk

Police street-level crime

Approximate incident locations. Recorded vehicle crime is not insured theft frequency.

Environment Agency

River and sea flood hazard

Modelled hazard, not observed motor loss. England only.

Environment Agency

Surface-water flood hazard

Modelled hazard; do not replay one model snapshot as historic annual evidence.

Department for Transport

Resident travel and rural/urban classification

Resident travel is distinct from traffic through an area; old/new classifications are not directly comparable.

DVSA

Anonymised MOT data

Use shared MOT Evidence Lab. Test-station postcode area is not keeper home postcode.

Flagged road observations (80)

Area	Year	Reason
Cumberland	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2021	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2022	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2021	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2022	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2021	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2022	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2023	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2024	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2025	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2021	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2022	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2023	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2024	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2025	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
North Northamptonshire	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
North Northamptonshire	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
North Northamptonshire	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
North Northamptonshire	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
North Northamptonshire	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
West Northamptonshire	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
West Northamptonshire	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
West Northamptonshire	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
West Northamptonshire	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
West Northamptonshire	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Staffordshire	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Staffordshire	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Stoke-on-Trent	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Stoke-on-Trent	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Buckinghamshire	2016	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2017	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2018	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2019	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2020	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2021	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2022	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2023	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2024	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2025	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Bath and North East Somerset	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Bath and North East Somerset	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Bristol, City of	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Bristol, City of	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Dorset	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Dorset	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Dorset	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2016	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2017	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2019	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2022	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2023	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2025	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
North Somerset	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
North Somerset	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Somerset	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Somerset	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
South Gloucestershire	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
South Gloucestershire	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete

Sources and periods

RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

Local authority motor vehicle mileage · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

STATS19 annual releases · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23

Road safety table index · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23

Resident travel and rural/urban classification · Annual series; 2024 classification break · accessed 2026-09-23

Geography can describe several different mechanisms. The evidence should keep them separate.

Beyond Postcodes · Johan Strydom

Through The Actuary Lens

Authority-level patterns support investigation, but cannot establish within-postcode differences or pricing lift without geocoded insurer exposure and held-out claims.

Method and limitations

Published measures & limits

Study design and validation protocol Geographic sources and reproducibility

Injury collision frequency

Police-reported injury collisions on roads in this area, divided by motor vehicle miles travelled in the same area. Not all insurance claims.

Unit: collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Serious injury exposure

Killed or seriously injured casualties, adjusted by DfT for reporting changes. Not claim cost or the probability of a claim.

Unit: killed or seriously injured casualties / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Fatality exposure

People killed, divided by motor vehicle miles. Road casualty outcomes do not establish monetary claim severity.

Unit: fatalities / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Severity conditional on collision

DfT-adjusted fatal or serious collisions divided by all reported injury collisions. The denominator is collisions, not miles.

Unit: % injury collisions fatal or serious

Traffic through the area

Traffic occurring on roads in the area. This is not the annual mileage of residents or vehicles kept here.

Unit: billion motor vehicle miles

About the five Postcode Risk Indices

These five public-data measures are different from Johan’s proprietary Postcode Risk Indices. The indices await validated definitions and inputs; no index values are published here.

Johan Strydom

Loading approved evidence

Retrieving and verifying the requested analytical release. Result data loads before optional map boundaries and source checks.

Your filters and release stay in the address. Navigation remains available.

POSTCODE RISK LAB

Do geographic differences persist?

Explore road outcomes across authorities and test whether differences recur in later years. These public proxies do not measure postcode-level insurance claims.

Public geographic evidence. Johan’s five proprietary Postcode Risk Indices are not published here. Their definitions and inputs still require validation and approval.

Explore geographic evidence

2016–2025 · Counties and unitary authorities, December 2025

THE ACTUARY LENSGEOGRAPHY · EVIDENCE · PERSISTENCE

Beyond Postcodes — Geo Risk

Unpack geography. Follow the risk. Test whether the differences endure.

Read the white paper

Official sources · 2016–2025207 areas · 2,070 area-yearsPublic evidence, not a validated insurance tariff

Sources & downloads · County Durham · Injury collision frequency · Map year 2025 · History 2016–2025 · Assessment 2022–2025

Release and terminology

lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f

REPRODUCIBLE BY DESIGN

Every result has a denominator, a period and a source.

2,004road rows reconciled to official rates

80road rows flagged; withheld from comparisons

24sources registered in the master pipeline

Not recordeddocumented human dataset review

What the checks establish

Release identifier: lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f
Source access / extraction: 2026-09-23
Public road observations: 2016–2025
Validation: Automated structural, reconciliation and provenance checks
Scheduler: Existing Lens Master Pipeline · due-only source checks

Fetching a page does not update its data period, certify a claim or constitute human review. New numeric releases require a reviewed extraction and the shared publication gate.

Department for Transport

RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority

All roads; latest geography in the workbook. Severity-adjusted FSC and KSI. Reporting warnings for Avon and Somerset and Staffordshire in 2022–2023 are excluded from persistence tests.

SHA-256 and provenance

ac551fbf73f4b8ccb11dbfbdbf8bc312be2f897d3103260c1552483d602259d2

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Department for Transport

Local authority motor vehicle mileage

Motor vehicle miles; pedal cycles excluded. Exact authority code and year join. Independent rate reconciliation against RAS0403; mismatches are suppressed.

SHA-256 and provenance

058a61b9f6f7d07a9363c339829c6723fdecc4270f500611d1790eae6da7b9fc

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Department for Transport

RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates

National road-type rates include pedal-cycle miles. Kept separate from local-authority motor-mile rates.

SHA-256 and provenance

e99e5108bcddefbce642ac01006a73a17c138d97e6e95ad55e67cccbf900ff58

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Office for National Statistics

Counties and Unitary Authorities December 2025 boundaries

ONS BGC source generalized to approximately 500 m for display. Boundaries are not address-level hazard determinations.

SHA-256 and provenance

e3569b2f82047945fc9a748a45c5fdc74e860f218f03db68967035b3132dead0

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Rainfall — England

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

ae926efaa48df47023a47c80512725e8b32d82fa0271a36be4575ead1d94e78a

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Rainfall — Wales

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

d04d3a66cbe2bf7dc84f3be477932802cbc9a7df9fffcd2bf3d7335dc5daf23a

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Rainfall — Scotland

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

44061c994011cc13fe6346b7d6d0546769a863f9aa48570dd98a6a89b3f26902

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Air frost — England

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

d15bb5a138dfc75f2f4c1ae19b8b58160666868d68214e8fc58f003d87ad0a3c

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Air frost — Wales

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

588c9c4f0b9d98ee2100a8c53c6168a4518382bf2433748ac6b1ee643fc5f4f7

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Air frost — Scotland

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

102f9c6243bea1e29a08e22612ff3a2d7950ce0c1f34d525c02eecb7047eaf08

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Wet days ≥1 mm — England

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

bada4e7164c5ca7495e8c1c8c5993ea0fb3cd27e7a5c2d103298c0ad7def98be

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Wet days ≥1 mm — Wales

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

48f45b6d8d8ab66badc639117ec2bfaf83e7d8817b14cf0fd8d93a211aaf11eb

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Met Office

Wet days ≥1 mm — Scotland

Country-level area average from HadUK-Grid. Descriptive weather exposure, not a local postcode estimate or a fitted weather effect on collisions.

SHA-256 and provenance

b0a06703d142657054a6bc6154b0aacff75b04187b4254f25507d5990cc5490b

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Home Office

Recorded vehicle offences by police force

SHA-256 and provenance

ae6f37357ae3104fb8f04de861cd2effe0a1ddce482beeed6f3f77cb8892d2f5

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Office for National Statistics

Police Force Areas December 2023 boundaries

Exact official force name match with explicit Devon and Cornwall alias; no areal allocation of British Transport Police.

SHA-256 and provenance

fe61220be6204fd98e4c16bc8ca073db13dec71b5fd5c54e37ac9c142641daee

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Environment Agency

Properties in river and sea flood hazard

SHA-256 and provenance

6d9b87158cefa2d4ec023d8d0b7e90a1f46a3beddfa8de7746772d334e667f83

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Environment Agency

Properties in surface-water flood hazard

SHA-256 and provenance

fbca3ecee99f5d901ded03260f7dbd965c1a7894510c4b7ef500172c044df3a9

Source data imported; human review not recorded. Open Government Licence v3.0.

Department for Transport

STATS19 annual releases

Shared STATS19 monitor; official tables above supply this initial release.

Department for Transport

Road safety table index

Detect new table URLs and revisions; changed evidence needs review.

Police.uk

Police street-level crime

Approximate incident locations. Recorded vehicle crime is not insured theft frequency.

Environment Agency

River and sea flood hazard

Modelled hazard, not observed motor loss. England only.

Environment Agency

Surface-water flood hazard

Modelled hazard; do not replay one model snapshot as historic annual evidence.

Department for Transport

Resident travel and rural/urban classification

Resident travel is distinct from traffic through an area; old/new classifications are not directly comparable.

DVSA

Anonymised MOT data

Use shared MOT Evidence Lab. Test-station postcode area is not keeper home postcode.

Flagged road observations (80)

Area	Year	Reason
Cumberland	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2021	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Cumberland	2022	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2021	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Westmorland and Furness	2022	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2021	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2022	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2023	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2024	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Barnsley	2025	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2021	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2022	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2023	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2024	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Sheffield	2025	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
North Northamptonshire	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
North Northamptonshire	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
North Northamptonshire	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
North Northamptonshire	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
North Northamptonshire	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
West Northamptonshire	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
West Northamptonshire	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
West Northamptonshire	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
West Northamptonshire	2019	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
West Northamptonshire	2020	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Staffordshire	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Staffordshire	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Stoke-on-Trent	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Stoke-on-Trent	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Buckinghamshire	2016	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2017	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2018	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2019	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2020	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2021	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2022	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2023	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2024	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Buckinghamshire	2025	Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
Bath and North East Somerset	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Bath and North East Somerset	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Bristol, City of	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Bristol, City of	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Dorset	2016	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Dorset	2017	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Dorset	2018	No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2016	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2017	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2019	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2022	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2023	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
Isles of Scilly	2025	Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
North Somerset	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
North Somerset	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Somerset	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
Somerset	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
South Gloucestershire	2022	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete
South Gloucestershire	2023	DfT warning: Avon and Somerset / Staffordshire reporting may be incomplete

Sources and periods

RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

Local authority motor vehicle mileage · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

STATS19 annual releases · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23

Road safety table index · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23

Resident travel and rural/urban classification · Annual series; 2024 classification break · accessed 2026-09-23

Geography can describe several different mechanisms. The evidence should keep them separate.

Beyond Postcodes · Johan Strydom

Through The Actuary Lens

Authority-level patterns support investigation, but cannot establish within-postcode differences or pricing lift without geocoded insurer exposure and held-out claims.

Method and limitations

Published measures & limits

Study design and validation protocol Geographic sources and reproducibility

Injury collision frequency

Police-reported injury collisions on roads in this area, divided by motor vehicle miles travelled in the same area. Not all insurance claims.

Unit: collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Serious injury exposure

Killed or seriously injured casualties, adjusted by DfT for reporting changes. Not claim cost or the probability of a claim.

Unit: killed or seriously injured casualties / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Fatality exposure

People killed, divided by motor vehicle miles. Road casualty outcomes do not establish monetary claim severity.

Unit: fatalities / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Severity conditional on collision

DfT-adjusted fatal or serious collisions divided by all reported injury collisions. The denominator is collisions, not miles.

Unit: % injury collisions fatal or serious

Traffic through the area

Traffic occurring on roads in the area. This is not the annual mileage of residents or vehicles kept here.

Unit: billion motor vehicle miles

About the five Postcode Risk Indices

These five public-data measures are different from Johan’s proprietary Postcode Risk Indices. The indices await validated definitions and inputs; no index values are published here.

Source	Evidence period	Source published	Checked in release	Latest check	Monitoring state
RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	21 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
Local authority motor vehicle mileage	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	21 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	21 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
Counties and Unitary Authorities December 2025 boundaries	December 2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
Rainfall — England	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Rainfall — Wales	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Rainfall — Scotland	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Air frost — England	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Air frost — Wales	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Air frost — Scotland	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Wet days ≥1 mm — England	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Wet days ≥1 mm — Wales	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Wet days ≥1 mm — Scotland	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Recorded vehicle offences by police force	Calendar 2016–2025; source updated 23 July 2026	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	Date unavailable	No live check linked
Police Force Areas December 2023 boundaries	December 2023	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
Properties in river and sea flood hazard	June 2026	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
Properties in surface-water flood hazard	September 2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
STATS19 annual releases	Latest available release	Date unavailable	26 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
Road safety table index	Latest available release	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
Police street-level crime	Monthly releases	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	21 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
River and sea flood hazard	Current hazard model	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Surface-water flood hazard	Current hazard model	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Resident travel and rural/urban classification	Annual series; 2024 classification break	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Anonymised MOT data	Annual releases	Date unavailable	22 Sept 2026	22 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded

Explore geographic evidence

Beyond Postcodes — Geo Risk

Every result has a denominator, a period and a source.

What the checks establish

Through The Actuary Lens

Published measures & limits

Injury collision frequency

Serious injury exposure

Fatality exposure

Severity conditional on collision

Traffic through the area

Loading approved evidence

Explore geographic evidence

Beyond Postcodes — Geo Risk

Every result has a denominator, a period and a source.

What the checks establish

Through The Actuary Lens

Published measures & limits

Injury collision frequency

Serious injury exposure

Fatality exposure

Severity conditional on collision

Traffic through the area

Sources & release