POSTCODE RISK LAB

Do geographic differences persist?

Explore road outcomes across authorities and test whether differences recur in later years. These public proxies do not measure postcode-level insurance claims.

Public geographic evidence. Johan’s five proprietary Postcode Risk Indices are not published here. Their definitions and inputs still require validation and approval.

Explore geographic evidence

2016–2025 · Counties and unitary authorities, December 2025

THE ACTUARY LENSGEOGRAPHY · EVIDENCE · PERSISTENCE

Beyond Postcodes — Geo Risk

Unpack geography. Follow the risk. Test whether the differences endure.

Read the white paper

Official sources · 2016–2025207 areas · 2,070 area-yearsPublic evidence, not a validated insurance tariff

Explore the map · Choose a police force · Recorded vehicle offences · Map year 2025 · History 2016–2025 · Assessment 2022–2025

Release and terminology

lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f

KSI = killed or seriously injured. FSC = fatal or serious collisions. GB = Great Britain. UK = United Kingdom. DfT = Department for Transport. ONS = Office for National Statistics. PFA = police force area. NRD = National Receptor Dataset. These public outcomes are not insurance claim costs.

Observation year

Geography: police force areas in England and Wales. Choose a force explicitly; no verified authority-to-force mapping is used.

Police force areaEngland & Wales · Police force areas

Vehicle crime · 2025

Requesting map boundaries… Exact data and area controls remain usable.

Select an area to explore its evidence

recorded vehicle offences · darker means higher recorded value

≤ 2,565> 2,565 to ≤ 4,090> 4,090 to ≤ 6,287> 6,287 to ≤ 10,041> 10,041╱ Withheld· Unavailable＋ Outside coverage

Fixed breaks across comparable years in this release; a new release can change breaks. Legend boundaries rounded for display; classification uses full precision. © ONS · Generalised boundaries. Zoom changes orientation, not geographic resolution.

Map data, coverage and sources

recorded vehicle offences · police force areas · 2025. This describes recorded counts, not theft probabilities.

Area	Value	Status
Metropolitan Police	87,194	Available
Cumbria	711	Available
Lancashire	6,667	Available
Merseyside	5,125	Available
Greater Manchester	16,638	Available
Cheshire	2,136	Available
Northumbria	6,192	Available
Durham	2,307	Available
North Yorkshire	1,636	Available
West Yorkshire	15,506	Available
South Yorkshire	10,927	Available
Humberside	3,420	Available
Cleveland	3,291	Available
West Midlands	27,231	Available
Staffordshire	4,670	Available
West Mercia	3,543	Available
Warwickshire	3,440	Available
Derbyshire	3,645	Available
Nottinghamshire	5,107	Available
Lincolnshire	2,106	Available
Leicestershire	5,900	Available
Northamptonshire	3,407	Available
Cambridgeshire	3,706	Available
Norfolk	1,551	Available
Suffolk	1,949	Available
Bedfordshire	4,682	Available
Hertfordshire	5,943	Available
Essex	10,206	Available
Thames Valley	11,007	Available
Hampshire	7,274	Available
Surrey	4,393	Available
Kent	7,517	Available
Sussex	5,243	Available
London, City of	88	Available
Devon & Cornwall	3,117	Available
Avon and Somerset	9,254	Available
Gloucestershire	2,283	Available
Wiltshire	1,711	Available
Dorset	3,122	Available
North Wales	1,147	Available
Gwent	2,585	Available
South Wales	6,010	Available
Dyfed-Powys	717	Available

Sources and periods

Recorded vehicle offences by police force · Calendar 2016–2025; source updated 23 July 2026 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

Postcode lookup finds an authority only. Roads crossed, vehicles kept and residents’ mileage are different exposures. Lookup: Postcodes.io. Your entry is sent to that service through a transient request; the tracker does not save it.

Sources and periods

Recorded vehicle offences by police force · Calendar 2016–2025; source updated 23 July 2026 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

Geography can describe several different mechanisms. The evidence should keep them separate.

Beyond Postcodes · Johan Strydom

Through The Actuary Lens

Authority-level patterns support investigation, but cannot establish within-postcode differences or pricing lift without geocoded insurer exposure and held-out claims.

Method and limitations

Published measures & limits

Study design and validation protocol Geographic sources and reproducibility

Injury collision frequency

Police-reported injury collisions on roads in this area, divided by motor vehicle miles travelled in the same area. Not all insurance claims.

Unit: collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Serious injury exposure

Killed or seriously injured casualties, adjusted by DfT for reporting changes. Not claim cost or the probability of a claim.

Unit: killed or seriously injured casualties / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Fatality exposure

People killed, divided by motor vehicle miles. Road casualty outcomes do not establish monetary claim severity.

Unit: fatalities / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Severity conditional on collision

DfT-adjusted fatal or serious collisions divided by all reported injury collisions. The denominator is collisions, not miles.

Unit: % injury collisions fatal or serious

Traffic through the area

Traffic occurring on roads in the area. This is not the annual mileage of residents or vehicles kept here.

Unit: billion motor vehicle miles

About the five Postcode Risk Indices

These five public-data measures are different from Johan’s proprietary Postcode Risk Indices. The indices await validated definitions and inputs; no index values are published here.

Johan Strydom

Loading approved evidence

Retrieving and verifying the requested analytical release. Result data loads before optional map boundaries and source checks.

Your filters and release stay in the address. Navigation remains available.

Do geographic differences persist?

Explore road outcomes across authorities and test whether differences recur in later years. These public proxies do not measure postcode-level insurance claims.

Public geographic evidence. Johan’s five proprietary Postcode Risk Indices are not published here. Their definitions and inputs still require validation and approval.

Explore geographic evidence

2016–2025 · Counties and unitary authorities, December 2025

THE ACTUARY LENSGEOGRAPHY · EVIDENCE · PERSISTENCE

Beyond Postcodes — Geo Risk

Unpack geography. Follow the risk. Test whether the differences endure.

Read the white paper

Official sources · 2016–2025207 areas · 2,070 area-yearsPublic evidence, not a validated insurance tariff

Explore the map · Choose a police force · Recorded vehicle offences · Map year 2025 · History 2016–2025 · Assessment 2022–2025

Release and terminology

lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f

Observation year

Geography: police force areas in England and Wales. Choose a force explicitly; no verified authority-to-force mapping is used.

Police force areaEngland & Wales · Police force areas

Vehicle crime · 2025

Requesting map boundaries… Exact data and area controls remain usable.

Select an area to explore its evidence

recorded vehicle offences · darker means higher recorded value

≤ 2,565> 2,565 to ≤ 4,090> 4,090 to ≤ 6,287> 6,287 to ≤ 10,041> 10,041╱ Withheld· Unavailable＋ Outside coverage

Map data, coverage and sources

recorded vehicle offences · police force areas · 2025. This describes recorded counts, not theft probabilities.

Area	Value	Status
Metropolitan Police	87,194	Available
Cumbria	711	Available
Lancashire	6,667	Available
Merseyside	5,125	Available
Greater Manchester	16,638	Available
Cheshire	2,136	Available
Northumbria	6,192	Available
Durham	2,307	Available
North Yorkshire	1,636	Available
West Yorkshire	15,506	Available
South Yorkshire	10,927	Available
Humberside	3,420	Available
Cleveland	3,291	Available
West Midlands	27,231	Available
Staffordshire	4,670	Available
West Mercia	3,543	Available
Warwickshire	3,440	Available
Derbyshire	3,645	Available
Nottinghamshire	5,107	Available
Lincolnshire	2,106	Available
Leicestershire	5,900	Available
Northamptonshire	3,407	Available
Cambridgeshire	3,706	Available
Norfolk	1,551	Available
Suffolk	1,949	Available
Bedfordshire	4,682	Available
Hertfordshire	5,943	Available
Essex	10,206	Available
Thames Valley	11,007	Available
Hampshire	7,274	Available
Surrey	4,393	Available
Kent	7,517	Available
Sussex	5,243	Available
London, City of	88	Available
Devon & Cornwall	3,117	Available
Avon and Somerset	9,254	Available
Gloucestershire	2,283	Available
Wiltshire	1,711	Available
Dorset	3,122	Available
North Wales	1,147	Available
Gwent	2,585	Available
South Wales	6,010	Available
Dyfed-Powys	717	Available

Sources and periods

Recorded vehicle offences by police force · Calendar 2016–2025; source updated 23 July 2026 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

Sources and periods

Recorded vehicle offences by police force · Calendar 2016–2025; source updated 23 July 2026 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

Geography can describe several different mechanisms. The evidence should keep them separate.

Beyond Postcodes · Johan Strydom

Published measures & limits

Injury collision frequency

Police-reported injury collisions on roads in this area, divided by motor vehicle miles travelled in the same area. Not all insurance claims.

Unit: collisions / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Serious injury exposure

Killed or seriously injured casualties, adjusted by DfT for reporting changes. Not claim cost or the probability of a claim.

Unit: killed or seriously injured casualties / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Fatality exposure

People killed, divided by motor vehicle miles. Road casualty outcomes do not establish monetary claim severity.

Unit: fatalities / 100,000 motor vehicle miles

Severity conditional on collision

DfT-adjusted fatal or serious collisions divided by all reported injury collisions. The denominator is collisions, not miles.

Unit: % injury collisions fatal or serious

Traffic through the area

Traffic occurring on roads in the area. This is not the annual mileage of residents or vehicles kept here.

Unit: billion motor vehicle miles

About the five Postcode Risk Indices

These five public-data measures are different from Johan’s proprietary Postcode Risk Indices. The indices await validated definitions and inputs; no index values are published here.

Sources & release

Approved evidence published4 Oct 2026

Data period2016–2025

Changes awaiting review18

Failed source checks0

Source monitoring does not change these published findings. A changed page may contain a document or wording update; it is not an approved new result.

Inspect 24 sources and monitoring details

Analysis validated: 4 Oct 2026. Missing dates are shown as “Date unavailable”.

Source	Evidence period	Source published	Checked in release	Latest check	Monitoring state
RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	21 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
Local authority motor vehicle mileage	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	21 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	21 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
Counties and Unitary Authorities December 2025 boundaries	December 2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Rainfall — England	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Rainfall — Wales	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Rainfall — Scotland	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Air frost — England	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Air frost — Wales	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Air frost — Scotland	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Wet days ≥1 mm — England	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Wet days ≥1 mm — Wales	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Wet days ≥1 mm — Scotland	2016–2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Recorded vehicle offences by police force	Calendar 2016–2025; source updated 23 July 2026	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	Date unavailable	No live check linked
Police Force Areas December 2023 boundaries	December 2023	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Properties in river and sea flood hazard	June 2026	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Properties in surface-water flood hazard	September 2025	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
STATS19 annual releases	Latest available release	Date unavailable	26 Sept 2026	16 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Road safety table index	Latest available release	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	16 Oct 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Police street-level crime	Monthly releases	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	21 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
River and sea flood hazard	Current hazard model	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Surface-water flood hazard	Current hazard model	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Resident travel and rural/urban classification	Annual series; 2024 classification break	Date unavailable	23 Sept 2026	23 Sept 2026	Source content changed; review pending
Anonymised MOT data	Annual releases	Date unavailable	22 Sept 2026	22 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded

Technical release ID

lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f