POSTCODE RISK LAB

Do geographic differences persist?

Explore road outcomes across authorities and test whether differences recur in later years. These public proxies do not measure postcode-level insurance claims.

Public geographic evidence. Johan’s five proprietary Postcode Risk Indices are not published here. Their definitions and inputs still require validation and approval.

Explore geographic evidence

2016–2025 · Counties and unitary authorities, December 2025

THE ACTUARY LENSGEOGRAPHY · EVIDENCE · PERSISTENCE

Beyond Postcodes — Geo Risk

Unpack geography. Follow the risk. Test whether the differences endure.

Read the white paper

Official sources · 2016–2025207 areas · 2,070 area-yearsPublic evidence, not a validated insurance tariff

Explore the map · County Durham · Injury collision frequency · Map year 2025 · History 2016–2025 · Assessment 2022–2025

Release and terminology

lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f

KSI = killed or seriously injured. FSC = fatal or serious collisions. GB = Great Britain. UK = United Kingdom. DfT = Department for Transport. ONS = Office for National Statistics. PFA = police force area. NRD = National Receptor Dataset. These public outcomes are not insurance claim costs.

Risk componentSelect areaObservation year

Geography: Great Britain county / unitary authority.

SELECTED AREA

County Durham

North East · Authority-level data

Administrative code

E06000047

15.16collisions / 100 million motor vehicle miles · 2025 · Available

Police-reported injury collisions on roads in this area, divided by motor vehicle miles travelled in the same area. Not all insurance claims.

What this shows: County Durham's released 2025 authority-level injury collision frequency. What it does not show: postcode, resident or insured-driver claims experience.

Approx. 95% Poisson count interval (Byar method; ≥20 collisions): 13.78–16.65. Conditional on mileage; excludes reporting and spatial uncertainty.

Reported injury collisions: 438
Motor vehicle miles: 2,888,300,000
Killed / seriously injured: 214

2022–2025 persistenceConsistently below

0 of 4 eligible years above the fixed-panel benchmark.

GB · County / unitary authority · 2025

Loading verified boundaries…

Select an area to explore its evidence

collisions / 100 million motor vehicle miles · darker means higher recorded value

≤ 17.81> 17.81 to ≤ 25.11> 25.11 to ≤ 35.09> 35.09 to ≤ 68.51> 68.51╱ Withheld· Unavailable＋ Outside coverage

Fixed breaks across comparable years in this release; a new release can change breaks. Legend boundaries rounded to 2 decimals; classification uses full precision. © ONS · Generalised boundaries. Zoom changes orientation, not geographic resolution.

FOLLOW THROUGH TIME

County Durham, 2016–2025

collisions / 100 million motor vehicle miles · 2016–2025 · gaps remain unconnected

County DurhamFixed-panel benchmark

Plotted data and chart description

Each series follows the labelled measure through calendar years. Missing or withheld values are not zero and are not connected. Dashed and solid lines distinguish adjacent series.

collisions / 100 million motor vehicle miles
Year	County Durham	Fixed-panel benchmark
2016	31.7	42.86
2017	31.98	40.5
2018	28.2	38.01
2019	24.7	36.01
2020	22.95	35.58
2021	20.56	35.37
2022	18.77	34.13
2023	16.62	32.71
2024	16.06	30.86
2025	15.16	30.38

Gaps mark withheld observations. The benchmark pools 190 authorities with complete, unflagged ten-year evidence, weighted by the metric denominator.

THE ROAD ENVIRONMENT

Different roads. Different outcomes.

Great Britain · national road types · includes pedal-cycle mileage; denominator differs from local rates.

collisions / 100 million vehicle miles · 2016–2025 · gaps remain unconnected

Urban roadsRural roadsMotorways

Plotted data and chart description

Each series follows the labelled measure through calendar years. Missing or withheld values are not zero and are not connected. Dashed and solid lines distinguish adjacent series.

collisions / 100 million vehicle miles
Year	Urban roads	Rural roads	Motorways
2016	74.36	29.86	7.99
2017	72.97	25.99	6.96
2018	68.99	24.15	6.62
2019	65.98	22.73	5.86
2020	62.46	22.69	4.9
2021	63.5	22	5.62
2022	62.28	21.64	5.03
2023	60.06	21	4.81
2024	56.49	20.46	4.64
2025	55.81	20.47	4.52

National RAS0302 road types. In 2025, urban roads have the highest recorded collision rate among these three road classes. This separate series includes pedal-cycle miles; it is not numerically pooled with the local motor-mile rates.

Sources and periods

RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

Local authority motor vehicle mileage · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

STATS19 annual releases · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23

Road safety table index · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23

Resident travel and rural/urban classification · Annual series; 2024 classification break · accessed 2026-09-23

Injury collision frequency · collisions / 100 million motor vehicle miles. Blank evidence is withheld, never zero.
Area	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
County Durham	31.7	31.98	28.2	24.7	22.95	20.56	18.77	16.62	16.06	15.16

What this shows: County Durham: 15.16 collisions / 100 million motor vehicle miles in 2025.

What it does not show: individual postcode risk, claim cost, causal effects or pricing improvement. Injury severity is not monetary claim severity.

How this measure is calculated

Injury collisions ÷ motor vehicle miles × 100,000,000. Missing or flagged evidence is withheld.

County Durham: numerator 438; denominator 2,888,300,000.

Sources for this selection

Immutable release: lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f. Values in the interface are rounded; downloads retain calculation precision.

RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

Local authority motor vehicle mileage · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

Search the map data / select or compare an area

Search authority names

2025 · collisions / 100 million motor vehicle miles. Withheld observations are not ranked.
Authority	Value	Status / reason
County Durham	15.16	Available · Unflagged released observation
Darlington	25.07	Available · Unflagged released observation
Gateshead	21.38	Available · Unflagged released observation
Hartlepool	21.38	Available · Unflagged released observation
Middlesbrough	14.95	Available · Unflagged released observation
Newcastle upon Tyne	40.17	Available · Unflagged released observation
North Tyneside	23.95	Available · Unflagged released observation
Northumberland	15.95	Available · Unflagged released observation
Redcar and Cleveland	17.36	Available · Unflagged released observation
South Tyneside	29.06	Available · Unflagged released observation
Stockton-on-Tees	15.19	Available · Unflagged released observation
Sunderland	29.45	Available · Unflagged released observation
Blackburn with Darwen	63.27	Available · Unflagged released observation
Blackpool	86.61	Available · Unflagged released observation
Bolton	21.78	Available · Unflagged released observation
Bury	15.73	Available · Unflagged released observation
Cheshire East	18.64	Available · Unflagged released observation
Cheshire West and Chester	19.92	Available · Unflagged released observation
Cumberland	24.41	Available · Unflagged released observation
Halton	19.56	Available · Unflagged released observation
Knowsley	17.14	Available · Unflagged released observation
Lancashire	28.09	Available · Unflagged released observation
Liverpool	62.07	Available · Unflagged released observation
Manchester	40.52	Available · Unflagged released observation
Oldham	27.32	Available · Unflagged released observation
Rochdale	19.22	Available · Unflagged released observation
Salford	18.65	Available · Unflagged released observation
Sefton	41.53	Available · Unflagged released observation
St. Helens	28.03	Available · Unflagged released observation
Stockport	19.02	Available · Unflagged released observation
Tameside	26.02	Available · Unflagged released observation
Trafford	18.79	Available · Unflagged released observation
Warrington	17.99	Available · Unflagged released observation
Westmorland and Furness	16.12	Available · Unflagged released observation
Wigan	16.99	Available · Unflagged released observation
Wirral	30.69	Available · Unflagged released observation
Barnsley	Unavailable	Withheld · No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Bradford	62.94	Available · Unflagged released observation
Calderdale	36.38	Available · Unflagged released observation
Doncaster	21.25	Available · Unflagged released observation
East Riding of Yorkshire	24.86	Available · Unflagged released observation
Kingston upon Hull, City of	86.11	Available · Unflagged released observation
Kirklees	36.65	Available · Unflagged released observation
Leeds	32.98	Available · Unflagged released observation
North East Lincolnshire	52.14	Available · Unflagged released observation
North Lincolnshire	28.34	Available · Unflagged released observation
North Yorkshire	20.95	Available · Unflagged released observation
Rotherham	26.03	Available · Unflagged released observation
Sheffield	Unavailable	Withheld · No matching traffic authority code and year; mileage rate withheld
Wakefield	28.54	Available · Unflagged released observation
York	36.98	Available · Unflagged released observation
Derby	39.52	Available · Unflagged released observation
Derbyshire	22.63	Available · Unflagged released observation
Leicester	44.7	Available · Unflagged released observation
Leicestershire	13.61	Available · Unflagged released observation
Lincolnshire	38.2	Available · Unflagged released observation
North Northamptonshire	23.76	Available · Unflagged released observation
Nottingham	72.71	Available · Unflagged released observation
Nottinghamshire	27.21	Available · Unflagged released observation
Rutland	9.89	Available · Unflagged released observation
West Northamptonshire	19.85	Available · Unflagged released observation
Birmingham	61.72	Available · Unflagged released observation
Coventry	32.47	Available · Unflagged released observation
Dudley	36.37	Available · Unflagged released observation
Herefordshire, County of	21.95	Available · Unflagged released observation
Sandwell	43.99	Available · Unflagged released observation
Shropshire	15.26	Available · Unflagged released observation
Solihull	17.51	Available · Unflagged released observation
Staffordshire	20.61	Available · Unflagged released observation
Stoke-on-Trent	41.1	Available · Unflagged released observation
Telford and Wrekin	15.58	Available · Unflagged released observation
Walsall	39.31	Available · Unflagged released observation
Warwickshire	17.02	Available · Unflagged released observation
Wolverhampton	52.06	Available · Unflagged released observation
Worcestershire	14.06	Available · Unflagged released observation
Bedford	32.83	Available · Unflagged released observation
Cambridgeshire	19.23	Available · Unflagged released observation
Central Bedfordshire	21.51	Available · Unflagged released observation
Essex	23.5	Available · Unflagged released observation
Hertfordshire	20.56	Available · Unflagged released observation
Luton	68.51	Available · Unflagged released observation
Norfolk	30.5	Available · Unflagged released observation
Peterborough	30.02	Available · Unflagged released observation
Southend-on-Sea	69.87	Available · Unflagged released observation
Suffolk	28.93	Available · Unflagged released observation
Thurrock	22.09	Available · Unflagged released observation
Barking and Dagenham	115.89	Available · Unflagged released observation
Barnet	71.46	Available · Unflagged released observation
Bexley	60.3	Available · Unflagged released observation
Brent	115.61	Available · Unflagged released observation
Bromley	69.8	Available · Unflagged released observation
Camden	237.9	Available · Unflagged released observation
City of London	294.53	Available · Unflagged released observation
Croydon	109.95	Available · Unflagged released observation
Ealing	91.45	Available · Unflagged released observation
Enfield	76.56	Available · Unflagged released observation
Greenwich	77.69	Available · Unflagged released observation
Hackney	263.08	Available · Unflagged released observation
Hammersmith and Fulham	178.46	Available · Unflagged released observation
Haringey	203.19	Available · Unflagged released observation
Harrow	96.96	Available · Unflagged released observation
Havering	43.7	Available · Unflagged released observation
Hillingdon	43.83	Available · Unflagged released observation
Hounslow	67.29	Available · Unflagged released observation
Islington	239.77	Available · Unflagged released observation
Kensington and Chelsea	184.46	Available · Unflagged released observation
Kingston upon Thames	40.93	Available · Unflagged released observation
Lambeth	205.44	Available · Unflagged released observation
Lewisham	160.5	Available · Unflagged released observation
Merton	104.35	Available · Unflagged released observation
Newham	130.12	Available · Unflagged released observation
Redbridge	85.35	Available · Unflagged released observation
Richmond upon Thames	67.48	Available · Unflagged released observation
Southwark	215.39	Available · Unflagged released observation
Sutton	65.25	Available · Unflagged released observation
Tower Hamlets	187.43	Available · Unflagged released observation
Waltham Forest	98.76	Available · Unflagged released observation
Wandsworth	167.87	Available · Unflagged released observation
Westminster	250.6	Available · Unflagged released observation
Bracknell Forest	29.2	Available · Unflagged released observation
Brighton and Hove	75.19	Available · Unflagged released observation
Buckinghamshire	Unavailable	Withheld · Official comparison rate unavailable; independent reconciliation not possible
East Sussex	39.12	Available · Unflagged released observation
Hampshire	23.77	Available · Unflagged released observation
Isle of Wight	57.89	Available · Unflagged released observation
Kent	30.21	Available · Unflagged released observation
Medway	50.74	Available · Unflagged released observation
Milton Keynes	16.77	Available · Unflagged released observation
Oxfordshire	17.84	Available · Unflagged released observation
Portsmouth	60.99	Available · Unflagged released observation
Reading	70.11	Available · Unflagged released observation
Slough	46.6	Available · Unflagged released observation
Southampton	78.28	Available · Unflagged released observation
Surrey	29.35	Available · Unflagged released observation
West Berkshire	11.7	Available · Unflagged released observation
West Sussex	36.44	Available · Unflagged released observation
Windsor and Maidenhead	15.68	Available · Unflagged released observation
Wokingham	19.13	Available · Unflagged released observation
Bath and North East Somerset	26.65	Available · Unflagged released observation
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole	52.69	Available · Unflagged released observation
Bristol, City of	52.93	Available · Unflagged released observation
Cornwall	25.1	Available · Unflagged released observation
Devon	21.38	Available · Unflagged released observation
Dorset	26.75	Available · Unflagged released observation
Gloucestershire	19.42	Available · Unflagged released observation
Isles of Scilly	Unavailable	Withheld · Traffic denominator differs by over 0.5% from the official rate; mileage rate withheld
North Somerset	17.31	Available · Unflagged released observation
Plymouth	43.08	Available · Unflagged released observation
Somerset	18.22	Available · Unflagged released observation
South Gloucestershire	15.4	Available · Unflagged released observation
Swindon	31.58	Available · Unflagged released observation
Torbay	40.44	Available · Unflagged released observation
Wiltshire	26.67	Available · Unflagged released observation
Aberdeen City	6.66	Available · Unflagged released observation
Aberdeenshire	5.97	Available · Unflagged released observation
Angus	12.3	Available · Unflagged released observation
Argyll and Bute	13.36	Available · Unflagged released observation
City of Edinburgh	24.27	Available · Unflagged released observation
Clackmannanshire	10.62	Available · Unflagged released observation
Dumfries and Galloway	15.7	Available · Unflagged released observation
Dundee City	25.63	Available · Unflagged released observation
East Ayrshire	11.39	Available · Unflagged released observation
East Dunbartonshire	11.16	Available · Unflagged released observation
East Lothian	10.3	Available · Unflagged released observation
East Renfrewshire	12.16	Available · Unflagged released observation
Falkirk	7.7	Available · Unflagged released observation
Fife	14.2	Available · Unflagged released observation
Glasgow City	26.59	Available · Unflagged released observation
Highland	12.26	Available · Unflagged released observation
Inverclyde	11.96	Available · Unflagged released observation
Midlothian	13.18	Available · Unflagged released observation
Moray	8.82	Available · Unflagged released observation
Na h-Eileanan Siar	8.44	Available · Unflagged released observation
North Ayrshire	15.45	Available · Unflagged released observation
North Lanarkshire	9.58	Available · Unflagged released observation
Orkney Islands	8.06	Available · Unflagged released observation
Perth and Kinross	10.07	Available · Unflagged released observation
Renfrewshire	12.18	Available · Unflagged released observation
Scottish Borders	9.2	Available · Unflagged released observation
Shetland Islands	5.4	Available · Unflagged released observation
South Ayrshire	12.85	Available · Unflagged released observation
South Lanarkshire	12.23	Available · Unflagged released observation
Stirling	9.98	Available · Unflagged released observation
West Dunbartonshire	12.97	Available · Unflagged released observation
West Lothian	13.52	Available · Unflagged released observation
Blaenau Gwent	23.84	Available · Unflagged released observation
Bridgend	7.28	Available · Unflagged released observation
Caerphilly	19.44	Available · Unflagged released observation
Cardiff	13.35	Available · Unflagged released observation
Carmarthenshire	28.73	Available · Unflagged released observation
Ceredigion	29.98	Available · Unflagged released observation
Conwy	11.71	Available · Unflagged released observation
Denbighshire	14.9	Available · Unflagged released observation
Flintshire	10.11	Available · Unflagged released observation
Gwynedd	11.68	Available · Unflagged released observation
Isle of Anglesey	7.73	Available · Unflagged released observation
Merthyr Tydfil	16.83	Available · Unflagged released observation
Monmouthshire	11.47	Available · Unflagged released observation
Neath Port Talbot	6.5	Available · Unflagged released observation
Newport	13.51	Available · Unflagged released observation
Pembrokeshire	33.93	Available · Unflagged released observation
Powys	31.16	Available · Unflagged released observation
Rhondda Cynon Taf	10.16	Available · Unflagged released observation
Swansea	9.21	Available · Unflagged released observation
Torfaen	19.35	Available · Unflagged released observation
Vale of Glamorgan	14.75	Available · Unflagged released observation
Wrexham	14.89	Available · Unflagged released observation

Postcode lookup finds an authority only. Roads crossed, vehicles kept and residents’ mileage are different exposures. Lookup: Postcodes.io. Your entry is sent to that service through a transient request; the tracker does not save it.

Sources and periods

RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

Local authority motor vehicle mileage · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates · 2016–2025 · accessed 2026-09-23 · Archived input

STATS19 annual releases · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23

Road safety table index · Latest available release · accessed 2026-09-23

Resident travel and rural/urban classification · Annual series; 2024 classification break · accessed 2026-09-23

Geography can describe several different mechanisms. The evidence should keep them separate.

Beyond Postcodes · Johan Strydom

Through The Actuary Lens

Authority-level patterns support investigation, but cannot establish within-postcode differences or pricing lift without geocoded insurer exposure and held-out claims.

Published measures & limits

Study design and validation protocol Geographic sources and reproducibility

Injury collision frequency

Police-reported injury collisions on roads in this area, divided by motor vehicle miles travelled in the same area. Not all insurance claims.

Unit: collisions / 100 million motor vehicle miles

Serious injury exposure

Killed or seriously injured casualties, adjusted by DfT for reporting changes. Not claim cost or the probability of a claim.

Unit: killed or seriously injured casualties / 100 million motor vehicle miles

Fatality exposure

People killed, divided by motor vehicle miles. Road casualty outcomes do not establish monetary claim severity.

Unit: fatalities / 100 million motor vehicle miles

Severity conditional on collision

DfT-adjusted fatal or serious collisions divided by all reported injury collisions. The denominator is collisions, not miles.

Unit: % injury collisions fatal or serious

Traffic through the area

Traffic occurring on roads in the area. This is not the annual mileage of residents or vehicles kept here.

Unit: billion motor vehicle miles

About the five Postcode Risk Indices

These five public-data measures are different from Johan’s proprietary Postcode Risk Indices. The indices await validated definitions and inputs; no index values are published here.

Sources & release

Published04/10/2026

Data period2016–2025

Changes awaiting review20

Failed source checks0

Source monitoring does not change these published findings. A changed page may contain a document or wording update; it is not an approved new result.

Inspect 24 sources and monitoring details

Analysis validated: 04/10/2026. Missing dates are shown as “Not recorded”.

Source	Source period	Checked in release	Latest check	Monitoring state
RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority	2016–2025	Not recorded	30/09/2026	No source issue recorded
Local authority motor vehicle mileage	2016–2025	Not recorded	30/09/2026	No source issue recorded
RAS0302: road-type collision and casualty rates	2016–2025	Not recorded	30/09/2026	No source issue recorded
Counties and Unitary Authorities December 2025 boundaries	December 2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Rainfall — England	2016–2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Rainfall — Wales	2016–2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Rainfall — Scotland	2016–2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Air frost — England	2016–2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Air frost — Wales	2016–2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Air frost — Scotland	2016–2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Wet days ≥1 mm — England	2016–2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Wet days ≥1 mm — Wales	2016–2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Wet days ≥1 mm — Scotland	2016–2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Recorded vehicle offences by police force	Calendar 2016–2025; source updated 23 July 2026	Not recorded	30/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Police Force Areas December 2023 boundaries	December 2023	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Properties in river and sea flood hazard	June 2026	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Properties in surface-water flood hazard	September 2025	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
STATS19 annual releases	Latest available release	26/09/2026	03/10/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Road safety table index	Latest available release	Not recorded	30/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Police street-level crime	Monthly releases	Not recorded	30/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
River and sea flood hazard	Current hazard model	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Surface-water flood hazard	Current hazard model	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Resident travel and rural/urban classification	Annual series; 2024 classification break	Not recorded	23/09/2026	Source content changed; review pending
Anonymised MOT data	Annual releases	22/09/2026	22/09/2026	No source issue recorded

Technical release ID

lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f