MOT DATA LAB

Vehicle use and roadworthiness

Explore matched mileage, national transitions and audited roadworthiness in separate workspaces.

Mileage evidence

December 2024–December 2025 · Great Britain · 1,268,479 matched vehicles

Annualised mileage between tests

Miles per year

December 2024–December 2025 · Great Britain · Vehicles matched across the December snapshots

Denominator: 1,268,479 matched vehicles. Observation: Matched vehicle with recorded mileage between normal tests.

Annualised miles between tests · one shared mileage axis

P10 1,748 miles/year
Median 5,981 miles/year
P90 13,803 miles/year

The line spans P10–P90; it is neither a confidence interval nor the full observed range. No unrecorded quartiles or distribution bins are inferred.

Published interval-mileage percentiles; these are not lifetime annualised mileages.
Percentile	Annualised miles between tests	Matched vehicles
P10	1,748	1,268,479
Median	5,981	1,268,479
P90	13,803	1,268,479

Retained support: 1,268,479 matched vehicles; this is not the separate national roadworthiness cohort.

The P10–P90 span describes variation in vehicle use, not statistical uncertainty or claim frequency. The release does not supply a full distribution or percentile confidence intervals.

Definition, reference population & exclusions

Numerator / measure: Percentiles of annualised interval mileage, not a count-based event rate.
Adjustment: Distance between recorded odometer readings annualised over the test interval. No exposure or fuel standardisation is applied in this distribution.
Unit of observation: Matched vehicle with recorded mileage between normal tests

P10 means 10% of this distribution lies at or below that mileage; the median divides it in half; P90 marks 90%. The published P90/P10 ratio is 7.9×. The highest-use 20% account for 45.0% of miles in the matched cohort.

December 2024 snapshot: 2,193,827 vehicles; December 2025 snapshot: 2,247,442. These snapshot totals are not the denominator of the percentile result. Detailed attrition categories and approved histogram bins are not supplied in this summary.

Evidence release: lens-2026-10-09-cbec43fe76c4. Definitions and source limitations remain available in the Mileage workspace.

Definitions and coverage

P10, median and P90 are points in the annualised mileage distribution. The matched cohort compares recorded odometer readings between normal tests. Coverage, fuel and vehicle class definitions differ from the separate roadworthiness build; neither result measures insurance claims.

National mileage transitions

National Class 4 records · 2022-01-01–2025-12-31 · Published roadworthiness cohort

Two consecutive observed mileage intervals, reconstructed from three normal tests. Rows describe earlier use; columns describe later use. Both intervals use the same vehicle.

Final test yearFuelAge at final testInterval eligibility

Movement between annual mileage bands

Share of each earlier-use band (%)

Final test year 2025 · Great Britain · National Class 4 cohort · all supported fuels · all eligible ages

Denominator: Each earlier-mileage row’s observed transitions; 24,881,848 across all rows. Observation: One observed pair of successive mileage intervals from three normal tests.

0%25%50%75%100%Hatched: no observations or withheld

Rows: earlier annualised miles. Columns: later annualised miles. Percentages use the row count; 0.0% is an observed zero. Unsupported rows have no published percentage.
Earlier ↓ / Later → miles/year	0–<5,000	5,000–<10,000	10,000–<15,000	15,000–<20,000	20,000+	Row count
0–<5,000	80.0%8,729,760 transitions	16.1%1,753,523 transitions	2.7%298,041 transitions	0.7%79,749 transitions	0.4%48,687 transitions	10,909,760Supported
5,000–<10,000	22.3%2,052,336 transitions	64.3%5,909,746 transitions	11.2%1,030,889 transitions	1.6%143,799 transitions	0.6%58,214 transitions	9,194,984Supported
10,000–<15,000	8.0%267,874 transitions	34.6%1,160,122 transitions	47.0%1,572,827 transitions	8.5%286,359 transitions	1.9%62,227 transitions	3,349,409Supported
15,000–<20,000	6.6%61,863 transitions	16.2%152,855 transitions	33.7%316,872 transitions	33.8%318,378 transitions	9.7%91,047 transitions	941,015Supported
20,000+	6.9%33,634 transitions	11.0%53,574 transitions	14.5%70,395 transitions	21.3%103,885 transitions	46.3%225,192 transitions	486,680Supported

Rows: earlier annualised miles. Columns: later annualised miles. Percentages use the row count; 0.0% is an observed zero. Unsupported rows have no published percentage.
Earlier ↓ / Later → miles/year	0–<5,000	5,000–<10,000	10,000–<15,000	15,000–<20,000	20,000+	Row count
0–<5,000	80.0%8,729,760 transitions	16.1%1,753,523 transitions	2.7%298,041 transitions	0.7%79,749 transitions	0.4%48,687 transitions	10,909,760Supported
5,000–<10,000	22.3%2,052,336 transitions	64.3%5,909,746 transitions	11.2%1,030,889 transitions	1.6%143,799 transitions	0.6%58,214 transitions	9,194,984Supported
10,000–<15,000	8.0%267,874 transitions	34.6%1,160,122 transitions	47.0%1,572,827 transitions	8.5%286,359 transitions	1.9%62,227 transitions	3,349,409Supported
15,000–<20,000	6.6%61,863 transitions	16.2%152,855 transitions	33.7%316,872 transitions	33.8%318,378 transitions	9.7%91,047 transitions	941,015Supported
20,000+	6.9%33,634 transitions	11.0%53,574 transitions	14.5%70,395 transitions	21.3%103,885 transitions	46.3%225,192 transitions	486,680Supported

Retained support: 5 of 5 rows meet the minimum of 100 transitions; 24,881,848 / 24,881,848 transitions are in supported rows.

Conditional on observing three usable tests. Missing tests are not zero mileage or scrappage. This selected cohort does not estimate movement for all national vehicles, and no transition confidence intervals are estimated here.

Definition, reference population & exclusions

Numerator / measure: Transitions from the earlier row band into the later column band.
Adjustment: No standardisation. Both observed intervals belong to the same vehicle. Eligibility: 180–730 days per interval.
Unit of observation: One observed pair of successive mileage intervals from three normal tests

67.3% remain in the same mileage band (16,755,903 / 24,881,848 observed transitions across all rows). Each supported row sums to 100% before rounding. The colour scale is fixed at 0–100% across selections.

Three consecutive observed completed normal Class 4 tests; two non-decreasing odometer intervals of 180–730 days (270–450 sensitivity); unique test dates at all endpoints; same eligible fuel; one existing cohort anchor per vehicle/year. Five-thousand-mile annualised bands with a 20,000+ tail. Non-return and missing observations are unresolved.

Build coverage: 2022-01-01–2025-12-31. Early years have less prior test history. The full-build eligibility register below reports exclusions before these display filters.

Evidence release: lens-2026-10-09-cbec43fe76c4 · Parent build: 719eec692a459667a593027f72102309fc29a2c819e607b5f5c427a7d01cfd18 · Reviewed 2026-09-26.

Check interval eligibility

Both rows keep final test year 2025, all supported fuels, the selected age group and the same mileage bands. The narrower window selects a subset of observed transitions; its denominators and vehicle mix can change.

Existing interval sensitivity, without re-estimation. Same-band share uses all transitions in that window and is withheld below 100; individual matrix rows require 100 each.
Both intervals must span	Observed transitions	Share of main cohort	Remain in same band	Supported matrix rows	Inspect
180–730 days · main	24,881,848	100.0%	67.3%	5 / 5
270–450 days · sensitivity	22,605,260	90.9%	68.7%	5 / 5

These overlapping samples are not independent replications. Differences are descriptive and may reflect eligibility and vehicle mix; no confidence interval or significance test is supplied.

Full-build eligibility and review

fewer than three observed tests: 63,188,874 cohort anchors
interval outside 180–730 days: 2,622,467 cohort anchors
decreasing odometer: 207,099 cohort anchors
valid: 48,288,081 cohort anchors
missing eligible odometer: 3,166,063 cohort anchors
ambiguous test date: 64,664 cohort anchors

These controls cover the full build, before the display filters above. Review: Johan Strydom, 2026-09-26.

Conditional on three observed usable tests, not the national vehicle stock or every insured driver.
Vehicle identity follows the DVSA source; no cross-source or household linkage.
Age is measured at the final anchor. Annualised use is an interval estimate, not a full calendar-year mileage total.
Overlapping histories share vehicles; do not treat transitions as independent insurance claims or infer scrappage.
Both intervals share the middle odometer reading; measurement error can create apparent reversals in mileage.
Non-decreasing odometer jumps remain in the main estimate; the 20,000+ band is an open tail.
Early source years have limited prior histories and can overrepresent frequent testers; changes in coverage are not a population trend.

Audited roadworthiness

What changed since the previous approved release?

Compare this exact selection. Live source checks are shown separately from approved data, methods and results.

Reviewed analytical build

2022-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · 35,879,674 unique vehicles · 117,537,248 vehicle-years

Release and build identifiers

Evidence release: lens-2026-10-09-cbec43fe76c4 · Build: 719eec692a459667

AnalysisCohort A · fuelCohort B · fuelTest yearFailure definitionDifference basis

Presets

Presets set age/mileage adjustment and keep your selected year and failure definition.

Shared by A and B:2025 · Great Britain · Class 4Initial (F + PRS) failures per vehicle-yearAge & mileage adjusted

Initial failure: raw and adjusted

Failures per 100 vehicle-years (%)

2025 · Great Britain · Normal Class 4 MOT tests; ages 3–30

Denominator: Battery electric: 381,053 observed vehicle-years · Petrol: 16,049,996 observed vehicle-years Observation: One first completed normal test per vehicle per year.

Difference basis: Age & mileage adjusted. Raw points include all observed vehicle-years. Filled points use age & mileage adjusted common support; changing basis can change that population.

Hollow points: raw rates with 95% Wilson intervals. Filled points: adjusted rates with 97.5% conservative bounds. Bounds use two decimal places.

A · Battery electric381,053 observed vehicle-years

Raw · all15.9%15.74%–15.98%
95% Wilson

Age & mileage adjusted24.0%23.33%–24.77%
97.5% conservative

Adjusted support: 370,464 / 381,053; 10,589 excluded97.2%

B · Petrol16,049,996 observed vehicle-years

Raw · all28.6%28.54%–28.58%
95% Wilson

Age & mileage adjusted21.8%21.76%–21.85%
97.5% conservative

Adjusted support: 10,548,831 / 16,049,996; 5,501,165 excluded65.7%

Shared 0–100% axes. Exact displayed values and evidence states are also available in Table.

Age & mileage adjusted · A (Battery electric) minus B (Petrol): 2.2 percentage points · conservative interval 1.5 to 3.0 pp (at least 95% coverage)

Percentage-point difference, not relative percentage change.

Raw rates use all observed vehicle-years; adjusted rates use common support and fixed reference weights. Both rows retain the same year and failure definition.
Cohort	Basis	Rate	Rate interval	Retained / all vehicle-years	Retained support	State
A · Battery electric	Raw observed	15.9%	15.74%–15.98% (95% Wilson)	381,053 / 381,053	100.0%	Available
A · Battery electric	Age & mileage adjusted	24.0%	23.33%–24.77% (97.5% conservative)	370,464 / 381,053	97.2%	Available
B · Petrol	Raw observed	28.6%	28.54%–28.58% (95% Wilson)	16,049,996 / 16,049,996	100.0%	Available
B · Petrol	Age & mileage adjusted	21.8%	21.76%–21.85% (97.5% conservative)	10,548,831 / 16,049,996	65.7%	Available

Age & mileage adjusted · A (Battery electric) minus B (Petrol): 2.2 percentage points · conservative interval 1.5 to 3.0 pp (at least 95% coverage)

Percentage-point difference, not relative percentage change.

Retained support: Battery electric: 370,464 / 381,053 (97.2%) adjusted; 10,589 excluded · Petrol: 10,548,831 / 16,049,996 (65.7%) adjusted; 5,501,165 excluded · 40 common strata

Raw rate intervals use Wilson 95%; adjusted fuel bounds are conservative 97.5%. Combining adjusted endpoints gives at least 95% coverage for the pairwise difference under within-year vehicle independence. These intervals do not remove selection bias, vehicle-mix confounding or establish insurance claim risk.

Definition, reference population & exclusions

Numerator / measure: Initial failures (F + PRS). Raw rates divide failures by all selected vehicle-years. Adjusted rates weight within-stratum proportions; they are not pooled failures / vehicles ratios.
Adjustment: Selected difference: Age & mileage adjusted. The chart pairs raw rates with age & mileage adjusted rates. Adjusted rates use fixed 2025 pooled reference weights, with at least 100 vehicles per fuel in every released year (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025).
Unit of observation: One first completed normal test per vehicle per year

Initial failures include passes after rectification (PRS). Retests are excluded. Vehicles with inconsistent fuel codes are excluded before the displayed cohort is formed.

Adjusted reference: 10,919,295 of 16,431,049 pooled vehicle-years in 2025 (66.5%). This differs from each displayed year’s fuel-specific support. Selecting Raw changes the difference to an unadjusted all-observation comparison; the adjusted chart context remains labelled.

Support exclusions within the reviewed selected cohort. Earlier source-quality exclusions are recorded under Data quality.
Fuel	All vehicle-years	Outside common support	Retained vehicle-years	Observed failures in retained rows
Battery electric	381,053	10,589	370,464	57,343
Petrol	16,049,996	5,501,165	10,548,831	2,329,702

Inspect 40 fixed reference weights

2025 pooled reference. Weights sum to 100% before rounding.
Age (years) : odometer band start (miles)	Reference vehicle-years	Weight
3:0	544,688	4.99%
3:30000	340,988	3.12%
3:60000	33,916	0.31%
3:90000	5,006	0.05%
4:0	447,647	4.10%
4:30000	485,176	4.44%
4:60000	61,483	0.56%
4:90000	7,141	0.07%
5:0	442,619	4.05%
5:30000	692,475	6.34%
5:60000	130,596	1.20%
5:90000	14,316	0.13%
6:0	342,131	3.13%
6:30000	770,542	7.06%
6:60000	231,679	2.12%
6:90000	28,497	0.26%
7:0	227,306	2.08%
7:30000	640,464	5.87%
7:60000	293,395	2.69%
7:90000	45,908	0.42%
8:0	183,847	1.68%
8:30000	579,774	5.31%
8:60000	359,109	3.29%
8:90000	73,213	0.67%
9:0	136,342	1.25%
9:30000	495,368	4.54%
9:60000	401,964	3.68%
9:90000	108,433	0.99%
10:0	98,594	0.90%
10:30000	402,526	3.69%
10:60000	407,960	3.74%
10:90000	143,316	1.31%
11:0	68,543	0.63%
11:30000	312,632	2.86%
11:60000	381,780	3.50%
11:90000	172,352	1.58%
12:30000	236,338	2.16%
12:60000	338,179	3.10%
12:90000	185,367	1.70%
12:120000	47,685	0.44%

Evidence release: lens-2026-10-09-cbec43fe76c4 · Build: 719eec692a459667a593027f72102309fc29a2c819e607b5f5c427a7d01cfd18 · Reviewed 2026-09-23.

Check robustness across adjustment choices

Both cohorts keep 2025, Great Britain, the initial failure definition and vehicle-year units. Within each adjusted comparison, A and B use the same fixed 2025 reference and common strata across every released year.

Each row is a separate governed comparison. Moving between rows changes support and weights; the change is not solely the effect of adjustment.
Comparison basis	A · Battery electric	B · Petrol	A − B	Reference / support
Raw observed	15.9%381,053 / 381,053 retained (100.0%) · 0 excluded	28.6%16,049,996 / 16,049,996 retained (100.0%) · 0 excluded	-12.7 pp	All observed vehicle-years; no standardisation
Age adjusted	25.4%380,145 / 381,053 retained (99.8%) · 908 excluded	25.0%12,967,385 / 16,049,996 retained (80.8%) · 3,082,611 excluded	+0.5 pp	13,347,530 reference vehicle-years · 13 common strata
Age & mileage adjusted	24.0%370,464 / 381,053 retained (97.2%) · 10,589 excluded	21.8%10,548,831 / 16,049,996 retained (65.7%) · 5,501,165 excluded	+2.2 pp	10,919,295 reference vehicle-years · 40 common strata

Raw rates use all selected vehicle-years. Age and age/mileage restrictions can retain different vehicles. Changing a fuel also recalculates the pair’s common support; changing only the year keeps each adjusted comparison’s reference weights fixed.

Definitions, uncertainty and limits

Coverage starts no earlier than 2022, after DVSA mileage-unit and fuel classification changes. Class 4 is broader than passenger cars. Each vehicle contributes one first completed normal test per year; partial and full retests are excluded from the main rate. This differs from all-test statistics and must not be presented as a direct reproduction without cohort alignment.

Raw and individual-cell intervals use Wilson 95% intervals. Adjusted rates use one frozen reference population and strata with at least 100 vehicles in both fuels in every year. Conservative distribution-free intervals allow a pairwise difference with at least 95% coverage under within-year vehicle independence. Precision does not remove selection bias, make/model confounding or source errors. All intervals are pointwise; exploratory comparisons are not multiplicity-adjusted.

MOT roadworthiness does not measure battery state of health, breakdowns, repairs between tests, software reliability, warranty cost or insurance claim risk. This Lab tests hypotheses; it cannot guarantee a preferred conclusion.

Official DVSA source and data guide ↗

Method and limitations

Through The Actuary Lens

Distance travelled is one dimension of exposure. MOT mileage does not identify where or when a vehicle was driven, the keeper’s address, battery health or insurance losses.

Johan Strydom

Loading approved evidence

Retrieving and verifying the requested analytical release. Result data loads before optional map boundaries and source checks.

Your filters and release stay in the address. Navigation remains available.

Mileage evidence

December 2024–December 2025 · Great Britain · 1,268,479 matched vehicles

Annualised mileage between tests

Miles per year

December 2024–December 2025 · Great Britain · Vehicles matched across the December snapshots

Denominator: 1,268,479 matched vehicles. Observation: Matched vehicle with recorded mileage between normal tests.

Annualised miles between tests · one shared mileage axis

P10 1,748 miles/year
Median 5,981 miles/year
P90 13,803 miles/year

The line spans P10–P90; it is neither a confidence interval nor the full observed range. No unrecorded quartiles or distribution bins are inferred.

Published interval-mileage percentiles; these are not lifetime annualised mileages.
Percentile	Annualised miles between tests	Matched vehicles
P10	1,748	1,268,479
Median	5,981	1,268,479
P90	13,803	1,268,479

Retained support: 1,268,479 matched vehicles; this is not the separate national roadworthiness cohort.

The P10–P90 span describes variation in vehicle use, not statistical uncertainty or claim frequency. The release does not supply a full distribution or percentile confidence intervals.

Definition, reference population & exclusions

Numerator / measure: Percentiles of annualised interval mileage, not a count-based event rate.
Adjustment: Distance between recorded odometer readings annualised over the test interval. No exposure or fuel standardisation is applied in this distribution.
Unit of observation: Matched vehicle with recorded mileage between normal tests

Evidence release: lens-2026-10-09-cbec43fe76c4. Definitions and source limitations remain available in the Mileage workspace.

Definitions and coverage

National mileage transitions

National Class 4 records · 2022-01-01–2025-12-31 · Published roadworthiness cohort

Two consecutive observed mileage intervals, reconstructed from three normal tests. Rows describe earlier use; columns describe later use. Both intervals use the same vehicle.

Final test yearFuelAge at final testInterval eligibility

Movement between annual mileage bands

Share of each earlier-use band (%)

Final test year 2025 · Great Britain · National Class 4 cohort · all supported fuels · all eligible ages

Denominator: Each earlier-mileage row’s observed transitions; 24,881,848 across all rows. Observation: One observed pair of successive mileage intervals from three normal tests.

0%25%50%75%100%Hatched: no observations or withheld

Rows: earlier annualised miles. Columns: later annualised miles. Percentages use the row count; 0.0% is an observed zero. Unsupported rows have no published percentage.
Earlier ↓ / Later → miles/year	0–<5,000	5,000–<10,000	10,000–<15,000	15,000–<20,000	20,000+	Row count
0–<5,000	80.0%8,729,760 transitions	16.1%1,753,523 transitions	2.7%298,041 transitions	0.7%79,749 transitions	0.4%48,687 transitions	10,909,760Supported
5,000–<10,000	22.3%2,052,336 transitions	64.3%5,909,746 transitions	11.2%1,030,889 transitions	1.6%143,799 transitions	0.6%58,214 transitions	9,194,984Supported
10,000–<15,000	8.0%267,874 transitions	34.6%1,160,122 transitions	47.0%1,572,827 transitions	8.5%286,359 transitions	1.9%62,227 transitions	3,349,409Supported
15,000–<20,000	6.6%61,863 transitions	16.2%152,855 transitions	33.7%316,872 transitions	33.8%318,378 transitions	9.7%91,047 transitions	941,015Supported
20,000+	6.9%33,634 transitions	11.0%53,574 transitions	14.5%70,395 transitions	21.3%103,885 transitions	46.3%225,192 transitions	486,680Supported

Rows: earlier annualised miles. Columns: later annualised miles. Percentages use the row count; 0.0% is an observed zero. Unsupported rows have no published percentage.
Earlier ↓ / Later → miles/year	0–<5,000	5,000–<10,000	10,000–<15,000	15,000–<20,000	20,000+	Row count
0–<5,000	80.0%8,729,760 transitions	16.1%1,753,523 transitions	2.7%298,041 transitions	0.7%79,749 transitions	0.4%48,687 transitions	10,909,760Supported
5,000–<10,000	22.3%2,052,336 transitions	64.3%5,909,746 transitions	11.2%1,030,889 transitions	1.6%143,799 transitions	0.6%58,214 transitions	9,194,984Supported
10,000–<15,000	8.0%267,874 transitions	34.6%1,160,122 transitions	47.0%1,572,827 transitions	8.5%286,359 transitions	1.9%62,227 transitions	3,349,409Supported
15,000–<20,000	6.6%61,863 transitions	16.2%152,855 transitions	33.7%316,872 transitions	33.8%318,378 transitions	9.7%91,047 transitions	941,015Supported
20,000+	6.9%33,634 transitions	11.0%53,574 transitions	14.5%70,395 transitions	21.3%103,885 transitions	46.3%225,192 transitions	486,680Supported

Retained support: 5 of 5 rows meet the minimum of 100 transitions; 24,881,848 / 24,881,848 transitions are in supported rows.

Definition, reference population & exclusions

Numerator / measure: Transitions from the earlier row band into the later column band.
Adjustment: No standardisation. Both observed intervals belong to the same vehicle. Eligibility: 180–730 days per interval.
Unit of observation: One observed pair of successive mileage intervals from three normal tests

Build coverage: 2022-01-01–2025-12-31. Early years have less prior test history. The full-build eligibility register below reports exclusions before these display filters.

Evidence release: lens-2026-10-09-cbec43fe76c4 · Parent build: 719eec692a459667a593027f72102309fc29a2c819e607b5f5c427a7d01cfd18 · Reviewed 2026-09-26.

Check interval eligibility

Existing interval sensitivity, without re-estimation. Same-band share uses all transitions in that window and is withheld below 100; individual matrix rows require 100 each.
Both intervals must span	Observed transitions	Share of main cohort	Remain in same band	Supported matrix rows	Inspect
180–730 days · main	24,881,848	100.0%	67.3%	5 / 5
270–450 days · sensitivity	22,605,260	90.9%	68.7%	5 / 5

These overlapping samples are not independent replications. Differences are descriptive and may reflect eligibility and vehicle mix; no confidence interval or significance test is supplied.

Full-build eligibility and review

fewer than three observed tests: 63,188,874 cohort anchors
interval outside 180–730 days: 2,622,467 cohort anchors
decreasing odometer: 207,099 cohort anchors
valid: 48,288,081 cohort anchors
missing eligible odometer: 3,166,063 cohort anchors
ambiguous test date: 64,664 cohort anchors

These controls cover the full build, before the display filters above. Review: Johan Strydom, 2026-09-26.

Conditional on three observed usable tests, not the national vehicle stock or every insured driver.
Vehicle identity follows the DVSA source; no cross-source or household linkage.
Age is measured at the final anchor. Annualised use is an interval estimate, not a full calendar-year mileage total.
Overlapping histories share vehicles; do not treat transitions as independent insurance claims or infer scrappage.
Both intervals share the middle odometer reading; measurement error can create apparent reversals in mileage.
Non-decreasing odometer jumps remain in the main estimate; the 20,000+ band is an open tail.
Early source years have limited prior histories and can overrepresent frequent testers; changes in coverage are not a population trend.

Audited roadworthiness

What changed since the previous approved release?

Compare this exact selection. Live source checks are shown separately from approved data, methods and results.

Reviewed analytical build

2022-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · 35,879,674 unique vehicles · 117,537,248 vehicle-years

Release and build identifiers

Evidence release: lens-2026-10-09-cbec43fe76c4 · Build: 719eec692a459667

AnalysisCohort A · fuelCohort B · fuelTest yearFailure definitionDifference basis

Presets

Presets set age/mileage adjustment and keep your selected year and failure definition.

Shared by A and B:2025 · Great Britain · Class 4Initial (F + PRS) failures per vehicle-yearAge & mileage adjusted

Initial failure: raw and adjusted

Failures per 100 vehicle-years (%)

2025 · Great Britain · Normal Class 4 MOT tests; ages 3–30

Denominator: Battery electric: 381,053 observed vehicle-years · Petrol: 16,049,996 observed vehicle-years Observation: One first completed normal test per vehicle per year.

Difference basis: Age & mileage adjusted. Raw points include all observed vehicle-years. Filled points use age & mileage adjusted common support; changing basis can change that population.

Hollow points: raw rates with 95% Wilson intervals. Filled points: adjusted rates with 97.5% conservative bounds. Bounds use two decimal places.

A · Battery electric381,053 observed vehicle-years

Raw · all15.9%15.74%–15.98%
95% Wilson

Age & mileage adjusted24.0%23.33%–24.77%
97.5% conservative

Adjusted support: 370,464 / 381,053; 10,589 excluded97.2%

B · Petrol16,049,996 observed vehicle-years

Raw · all28.6%28.54%–28.58%
95% Wilson

Age & mileage adjusted21.8%21.76%–21.85%
97.5% conservative

Adjusted support: 10,548,831 / 16,049,996; 5,501,165 excluded65.7%

Shared 0–100% axes. Exact displayed values and evidence states are also available in Table.

Age & mileage adjusted · A (Battery electric) minus B (Petrol): 2.2 percentage points · conservative interval 1.5 to 3.0 pp (at least 95% coverage)

Percentage-point difference, not relative percentage change.

Raw rates use all observed vehicle-years; adjusted rates use common support and fixed reference weights. Both rows retain the same year and failure definition.
Cohort	Basis	Rate	Rate interval	Retained / all vehicle-years	Retained support	State
A · Battery electric	Raw observed	15.9%	15.74%–15.98% (95% Wilson)	381,053 / 381,053	100.0%	Available
A · Battery electric	Age & mileage adjusted	24.0%	23.33%–24.77% (97.5% conservative)	370,464 / 381,053	97.2%	Available
B · Petrol	Raw observed	28.6%	28.54%–28.58% (95% Wilson)	16,049,996 / 16,049,996	100.0%	Available
B · Petrol	Age & mileage adjusted	21.8%	21.76%–21.85% (97.5% conservative)	10,548,831 / 16,049,996	65.7%	Available

Age & mileage adjusted · A (Battery electric) minus B (Petrol): 2.2 percentage points · conservative interval 1.5 to 3.0 pp (at least 95% coverage)

Percentage-point difference, not relative percentage change.

Retained support: Battery electric: 370,464 / 381,053 (97.2%) adjusted; 10,589 excluded · Petrol: 10,548,831 / 16,049,996 (65.7%) adjusted; 5,501,165 excluded · 40 common strata

Definition, reference population & exclusions

Numerator / measure: Initial failures (F + PRS). Raw rates divide failures by all selected vehicle-years. Adjusted rates weight within-stratum proportions; they are not pooled failures / vehicles ratios.
Adjustment: Selected difference: Age & mileage adjusted. The chart pairs raw rates with age & mileage adjusted rates. Adjusted rates use fixed 2025 pooled reference weights, with at least 100 vehicles per fuel in every released year (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025).
Unit of observation: One first completed normal test per vehicle per year

Initial failures include passes after rectification (PRS). Retests are excluded. Vehicles with inconsistent fuel codes are excluded before the displayed cohort is formed.

Support exclusions within the reviewed selected cohort. Earlier source-quality exclusions are recorded under Data quality.
Fuel	All vehicle-years	Outside common support	Retained vehicle-years	Observed failures in retained rows
Battery electric	381,053	10,589	370,464	57,343
Petrol	16,049,996	5,501,165	10,548,831	2,329,702

Inspect 40 fixed reference weights

2025 pooled reference. Weights sum to 100% before rounding.
Age (years) : odometer band start (miles)	Reference vehicle-years	Weight
3:0	544,688	4.99%
3:30000	340,988	3.12%
3:60000	33,916	0.31%
3:90000	5,006	0.05%
4:0	447,647	4.10%
4:30000	485,176	4.44%
4:60000	61,483	0.56%
4:90000	7,141	0.07%
5:0	442,619	4.05%
5:30000	692,475	6.34%
5:60000	130,596	1.20%
5:90000	14,316	0.13%
6:0	342,131	3.13%
6:30000	770,542	7.06%
6:60000	231,679	2.12%
6:90000	28,497	0.26%
7:0	227,306	2.08%
7:30000	640,464	5.87%
7:60000	293,395	2.69%
7:90000	45,908	0.42%
8:0	183,847	1.68%
8:30000	579,774	5.31%
8:60000	359,109	3.29%
8:90000	73,213	0.67%
9:0	136,342	1.25%
9:30000	495,368	4.54%
9:60000	401,964	3.68%
9:90000	108,433	0.99%
10:0	98,594	0.90%
10:30000	402,526	3.69%
10:60000	407,960	3.74%
10:90000	143,316	1.31%
11:0	68,543	0.63%
11:30000	312,632	2.86%
11:60000	381,780	3.50%
11:90000	172,352	1.58%
12:30000	236,338	2.16%
12:60000	338,179	3.10%
12:90000	185,367	1.70%
12:120000	47,685	0.44%

Evidence release: lens-2026-10-09-cbec43fe76c4 · Build: 719eec692a459667a593027f72102309fc29a2c819e607b5f5c427a7d01cfd18 · Reviewed 2026-09-23.

Check robustness across adjustment choices

Each row is a separate governed comparison. Moving between rows changes support and weights; the change is not solely the effect of adjustment.
Comparison basis	A · Battery electric	B · Petrol	A − B	Reference / support
Raw observed	15.9%381,053 / 381,053 retained (100.0%) · 0 excluded	28.6%16,049,996 / 16,049,996 retained (100.0%) · 0 excluded	-12.7 pp	All observed vehicle-years; no standardisation
Age adjusted	25.4%380,145 / 381,053 retained (99.8%) · 908 excluded	25.0%12,967,385 / 16,049,996 retained (80.8%) · 3,082,611 excluded	+0.5 pp	13,347,530 reference vehicle-years · 13 common strata
Age & mileage adjusted	24.0%370,464 / 381,053 retained (97.2%) · 10,589 excluded	21.8%10,548,831 / 16,049,996 retained (65.7%) · 5,501,165 excluded	+2.2 pp	10,919,295 reference vehicle-years · 40 common strata

Definitions, uncertainty and limits

Official DVSA source and data guide ↗

Sources & release

Approved evidence published9 Oct 2026

Data periodDecember 2024–December 2025; 2022-01-01–2025-12-31 roadworthiness

Changes awaiting review0

Failed source checks0

Source monitoring does not change these published findings. A changed page may contain a document or wording update; it is not an approved new result.

Inspect 54 sources and monitoring details

Analysis validated: 9 Oct 2026. Missing dates are shown as “Date unavailable”.

Source	Evidence period	Source published	Checked in release	Latest check	Monitoring state
Anonymised MOT test and result data	December 2024–December 2025	Date unavailable	22 Sept 2026	22 Oct 2026	No source issue recorded
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2022-01-01–2022-12-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2023-01-01–2023-12-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-01-01–2024-01-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-02-01–2024-02-29	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-03-01–2024-03-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-04-01–2024-04-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-05-01–2024-05-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-06-01–2024-06-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-07-01–2024-07-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-08-01–2024-08-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-09-01–2024-09-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-10-01–2024-10-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-11-01–2024-11-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-12-01–2024-12-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-01-01–2025-01-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-02-01–2025-02-28	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-03-01–2025-03-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-04-01–2025-04-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-05-01–2025-05-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-06-01–2025-06-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-07-01–2025-07-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-08-01–2025-08-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-09-01–2025-09-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-10-01–2025-10-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-11-01–2025-11-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-12-01–2025-12-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2022-01-01–2022-12-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2023-01-01–2023-12-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-01-01–2024-01-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-02-01–2024-02-29	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-03-01–2024-03-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-04-01–2024-04-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-05-01–2024-05-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-06-01–2024-06-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-07-01–2024-07-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-08-01–2024-08-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-09-01–2024-09-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-10-01–2024-10-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-11-01–2024-11-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-12-01–2024-12-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-01-01–2025-01-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-02-01–2025-02-28	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-03-01–2025-03-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-04-01–2025-04-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-05-01–2025-05-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-06-01–2025-06-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-07-01–2025-07-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-08-01–2025-08-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-09-01–2025-09-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-10-01–2025-10-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-11-01–2025-11-30	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-12-01–2025-12-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2022-01-01–2025-12-31	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	Date unavailable	No live check linked

Technical release ID

lens-2026-10-09-cbec43fe76c4