Clear
The concern is explained. Continue appropriately.
Validate the facts. Protect the honest customer.
Independent evidence helps resolve inconsistencies fairly.
The executive takeaway
New deception methods increase the need for proportionate validation.
From an inconsistency to a fair decision
Validation process illustration. No conversion or detection rate is implied.
Proposal, policy change or claim
Information is submitted and a check raises a question.
Corroborate the facts and explanations
Check evidence quality, recording errors and innocent explanations.
After corroboration
Correct
Resolve an error using verified information.
Investigate
A material concern remains. Use proportionate human review.
Measure confirmed value alongside false positives and the effect on honest customers.
Keep in mindA mismatch is not proof of fraud; detected fraud is not total prevalence.
What supports this view?
Established: This evidence set distinguishes reported fraud, warning signals and validation tools.
Evidence to change the assessment: Reassess with measured detection value, false positives and customer outcomes.
Changing answers is a validation problem before it is an AI claim
Percayso documents comparison of quotes and retrospective policy analysis to identify manipulation.
Limit: Compare declarations across the journey and refer material inconsistencies. A changed answer alone does not establish intent or AI involvement.
- Percayso Inform: Inform
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
Images and documents need their own integrity checks
FRISS describes checks for synthetic images, altered PDFs and reused evidence.
Limit: Combine media analysis with original files, incident evidence and human review. A synthetic-content score is not a fraud verdict.
- FRISS: Media Check
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
Evidence dates & releaseEvidence published 4 Oct 2026
- Evidence period
- Periods vary by sourceThe time measured. Publication and event dates appear with the individual sources.
- Assessment changed
- Change date unavailable in this releaseLast recorded material change to the insurance assessment.
- Explainer changed
- Change date unavailable in this releaseLast recorded change to its evidence or explanation. A routine source check does not reset it.
- Source checks
- 21 Sept 2026 – 28 Sept 202640 of 40 sources have a check date in this release. These dates describe inspection, not new evidence.
Approved evidence published 4 Oct 2026This topic, its downloads and linked Data Lab views use the same selected release.
Inspect the sources and their datesRead the explanation, evidence and limitations
Validate the facts. Protect the honest customer.
Proposal and claim information can be checked against independent evidence. The aim is to find meaningful inconsistencies while keeping fair treatment and human judgement.
Established: This evidence set distinguishes reported fraud, warning signals and validation tools.
Developing: AI can support checking and can also make false evidence more convincing.
Still uncertain: A mismatch is not proof of fraud; detected fraud is not total prevalence.
What changed in the evidence?
Percayso documents comparison of quotes and retrospective policy analysis to identify manipulation.
Limit: Compare declarations across the journey and refer material inconsistencies. A changed answer alone does not establish intent or AI involvement.
- Percayso Inform: Inform
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
FRISS describes checks for synthetic images, altered PDFs and reused evidence.
Limit: Combine media analysis with original files, incident evidence and human review. A synthetic-content score is not a fraud verdict.
- FRISS: Media Check
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
Guardian Integrity Shield describes application, claims and document checks, including AI-generated evidence.
Limit: Test the extra cases found after existing controls, and the impact on genuine customers. Supplier claims are not observed performance.
- InsureLab.ai: Guardian Integrity Shield
Evidence period: Supplier product description accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
Insurance implication
New deception methods increase the need for proportionate validation.
Current response: Test
Watch next: Reassess with measured detection value, false positives and customer outcomes.
A mismatch is not proof of fraud; detected fraud is not total prevalence.
Released sources
- Aviva: Claims and application fraud findings for 2025
Evidence period: Calendar year 2025; Aviva UK general insurance unless stated otherwiseSource published: 8 Jun 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- Association of British Insurers: Insurance fraud
Evidence period: Calendar year 2024Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- Motor Insurers’ Bureau: Resources for insurers and brokers
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- LexisNexis Risk Solutions: No Claims Discount (NCD) Module
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- Percayso Inform: Inform
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- Entrust: Identity Verification Solutions (formerly Onfido)
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- Loqate: Address Verification
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- GOV.UK / DVLA: Check someone’s driving licence information
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- GOV.UK: Check a used vehicle you’re buying
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- HPI: HPI Check and vehicle history
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- GOV.UK / Companies House: Get information about a company
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- Cifas: National Fraud Database
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- IFB: Insurance Fraud Bureau
Evidence period: Industry fraud resources accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- Shift Technology: Fraud & Risk
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- Shift Technology: Shift Technology: published customer references
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- FRISS: Media Check
Evidence period: Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- InsureLab.ai: Guardian Integrity Shield
Evidence period: Supplier product description accessed 22 September 2026Checked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- Association of British Insurers: Fraudulent insurance claims continue to top £1 billion
Evidence period: Calendar year 2024, with a restated 2023 comparatorChecked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Association of British Insurers: Crackdown on insurance cheats delivering results
Evidence period: Calendar year 2022Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Cifas: Fraudscape 2026
Evidence period: National Fraud Database member reporting, calendar year 2025Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Official Injury Claim: Official Injury Claim data
Evidence period: Portal data and publications since service launchChecked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Official Injury Claim: OIC data publication: April to June 2026
Evidence period: 1 April to 30 June 2026Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Department for Work and Pensions: Compensation Recovery Unit performance data
Evidence period: Financial years 2018/19 to 2025/26Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Motor Insurers’ Bureau: The UK’s top uninsured-driving areas
Evidence period: Two years of MIB claims; postcode districts ranked by defendants per 1,000 populationSource published: 10 Nov 2025Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Home Office: Police.uk open data
Evidence period: Monthly street-level police-recorded crimeChecked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Home Office: Police recorded crime and outcomes open data tables
Evidence period: Police-force-area vehicle offences, calendar years 2016 to 2025Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency: Anonymised MOT tests and results
Evidence period: MOT tests from 2005 onwardChecked in this release: 22 Sept 2026
- Department for Transport: Vehicle licensing statistics data tables
Evidence period: Quarterly and annual licensed-vehicle statisticsChecked in this release: 21 Sept 2026
- Department for Transport: Road traffic statistics
Evidence period: Annual motor-vehicle mileageChecked in this release: 26 Sept 2026
- Department for Transport: Road safety open data
Evidence period: Police-reported collisions and casualtiesChecked in this release: 26 Sept 2026
- Financial Conduct Authority: FCA Warning List
Evidence period: Current unauthorised-firm warningsChecked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Financial Conduct Authority: Financial Services Register
Evidence period: Current regulatory permissions and statusChecked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Financial Conduct Authority: Firm-level complaints data
Evidence period: Half-yearly regulated-firm complaintsChecked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- Financial Ombudsman Service: Quarterly complaints data: Q1 2026/27
Evidence period: April to June 2026Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- City of London Police / IFED: Ghost broker sentenced for £302,000 insurance policy scam
Evidence period: Enforcement caseSource published: 1 Aug 2023Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- City of London Police / IFED: Man jailed for fake car-insurance fraud
Evidence period: Enforcement caseSource published: 30 Apr 2025Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- City of London Police / IFED: Serial ghost broker sentenced after repeated warnings
Evidence period: Enforcement caseSource published: 19 Sept 2025Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- City of London Police / IFED: Fraudster sentenced for £17,000 Instagram policy scam
Evidence period: Enforcement caseSource published: 25 Jul 2024Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- City of London Police / IFED: Fake car-insurance fraudsters ordered to repay £376,000
Evidence period: Enforcement and confiscation caseSource published: 10 Mar 2025Checked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
- City of London Police / IFED: Nationwide crackdown on ghost broking
Evidence period: Enforcement operationChecked in this release: 28 Sept 2026
Back to The Actuary LensEvidence as at 28 Sept 2026
Approved evidence published 4 Oct 2026 · Release details
This date identifies the approved release. Individual sources can describe earlier periods and publication dates.
Release reference lens-2026-10-04-59b57c37396f
INSURANCE IMPLICATIONS
The five conclusions
- Direction
- New deception methods increase the need for proportionate validation.
- Magnitude
- Detected fraud is not total prevalence; false positives also have a cost.
- Timing
- At proposal, during cover and at claim, according to the evidence and purpose.
- Evidence
- Documented threats and available checks do not establish an individual case of fraud.
- Response
- Test before changing portfolio assumptions.
What would change this view? Reassess with measured detection value, false positives and customer outcomes.
What do you need to validate?
Reported fraud evidence
Different populations and periods. These are separate observations, not a like-for-like comparison.
Claims · 2024
Detected dishonest claims
98,400UK • all insurance classes • ABI reportingDetected cases, not the total incidence of fraud. This figure does not identify AI use.
Applications · 2025
Fraudulent applications detected
>105,000Aviva UK general insurance • excludes Direct LineOne insurer’s count; no application denominator or AI-attributed share is given.
Insurance implications · The Pricing Actuary’s Lens
Editorial interpretation. Detected fraud reflects both offending and detection effort; these figures do not estimate a UK-wide AI fraud rate.
Frequency
Track detected cases per application or claim as well as the total count. Better detection can increase recorded fraud without an increase in underlying incidence.
Severity
Separate attempted value, confirmed avoided cost and recovered cash. Compare net savings after investigation and supplier costs.
Exposure basis
Applications, bound policies, claims and uploaded documents are different denominators. Keep stage and observation period attached to every result.
Tail and accumulation risk
Reused identities, documents and networks can create correlated losses. Look beyond a single policy while checking false matches.
Price response and selection
Manipulation can change which risks enter the book. Measure performance after price changes and referral rules, allowing for shifts in business mix.
Capital vulnerability
Fast binding and settlement shorten the time available to intervene. Test controls against new manipulation methods before widening automation.
Customer expectation
Measure the time and effort imposed on genuine applicants and claimants, including those with thin data histories.
Duty to act
Use explainable referrals, proportionate evidence requests and a correction route. Do not treat an anomaly, missing record or model score as a finding of fraud.
Data & sources
Trace the assessment to its publications, datasets and observation periods.
Evidence dates & releaseEvidence published 4 Oct 2026
- Evidence period
- Periods vary by sourceThe time measured. Publication and event dates appear with the individual sources.
- Assessment changed
- Change date unavailable in this releaseLast recorded material change to the insurance assessment.
- Explainer changed
- Change date unavailable in this releaseLast recorded change to its evidence or explanation. A routine source check does not reset it.
- Source checks
- 21 Sept 2026 – 28 Sept 202640 of 40 sources have a check date in this release. These dates describe inspection, not new evidence.
Approved evidence published 4 Oct 2026This topic, its downloads and linked Data Lab views use the same selected release.
Inspect the sources and their datesData and downloads
Evidence limit: A mismatch is not proof of fraud; detected fraud is not total prevalence.
Sources behind this view (40)
Dates belong to the selected release. A source check is an inspection, not new evidence. External source links open in a new tab.
Jump to a source
Source 1 · Aviva
Claims and application fraud findings for 2025
Qualification: Application and AI observations exclude Direct Line. Combined group claims totals have a different scope and are not used here.
- Evidence period
- Calendar year 2025; Aviva UK general insurance unless stated otherwise
- Source published
- 8 Jun 2026
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Scope and supported claims for Claims and application fraud findings for 2025
Used for: Aviva reports growing use of AI-generated claims evidence
Geography / market: UK • Aviva, excluding Direct Line
Source 2 · Association of British Insurers
Insurance fraud
Qualification: The claims count is included. The monetary total conflicts with other published reporting and is withheld pending reconciliation.
- Evidence period
- Calendar year 2024
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 3 · Motor Insurers’ Bureau
Resources for insurers and brokers
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 4 · LexisNexis Risk Solutions
No Claims Discount (NCD) Module
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 5 · Percayso Inform
Inform
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Scope and supported claims for Inform
Used for: Changing answers is a validation problem before it is an AI claim
Geography / market: UK
Source 6 · Entrust
Identity Verification Solutions (formerly Onfido)
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 7 · Loqate
Address Verification
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 8 · GOV.UK / DVLA
Check someone’s driving licence information
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 9 · GOV.UK
Check a used vehicle you’re buying
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 10 · HPI
HPI Check and vehicle history
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 11 · GOV.UK / Companies House
Get information about a company
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 12 · Cifas
National Fraud Database
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 13 · IFB
Insurance Fraud Bureau
- Evidence period
- Industry fraud resources accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 14 · Shift Technology
Fraud & Risk
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 15 · Shift Technology
Shift Technology: published customer references
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 16 · FRISS
Media Check
- Evidence period
- Product documentation accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Scope and supported claims for Media Check
Used for: Images and documents need their own integrity checks
Geography / market: International; UK validation required
Source 17 · InsureLab.ai
Guardian Integrity Shield
Qualification: Read from the rendered service page. Product assertions are supplier claims; no independent performance test has been supplied.
- Evidence period
- Supplier product description accessed 22 September 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Scope and supported claims for Guardian Integrity Shield
Used for: Application and claim evidence in the same review workflow
Geography / market: UK
Source 18 · Association of British Insurers
Fraudulent insurance claims continue to top £1 billion
Qualification: ABI member detection reporting. Detected fraud is not total fraud incidence.
- Evidence period
- Calendar year 2024, with a restated 2023 comparator
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 19 · Association of British Insurers
Crackdown on insurance cheats delivering results
- Evidence period
- Calendar year 2022
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 20 · Cifas
Fraudscape 2026
Qualification: Aggregate member reporting only; this is not a census of all UK fraud.
- Evidence period
- National Fraud Database member reporting, calendar year 2025
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 21 · Official Injury Claim
Official Injury Claim data
- Evidence period
- Portal data and publications since service launch
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 22 · Official Injury Claim
OIC data publication: April to June 2026
Qualification: Operational claims data. Exits can have several causes and must not be treated as fraud cases.
- Evidence period
- 1 April to 30 June 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 23 · Department for Work and Pensions
Compensation Recovery Unit performance data
- Evidence period
- Financial years 2018/19 to 2025/26
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 24 · Motor Insurers’ Bureau
The UK’s top uninsured-driving areas
- Evidence period
- Two years of MIB claims; postcode districts ranked by defendants per 1,000 population
- Source published
- 10 Nov 2025
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 25 · Home Office
Police.uk open data
- Evidence period
- Monthly street-level police-recorded crime
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 26 · Home Office
Police recorded crime and outcomes open data tables
- Evidence period
- Police-force-area vehicle offences, calendar years 2016 to 2025
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 27 · Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency
Anonymised MOT tests and results
- Evidence period
- MOT tests from 2005 onward
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 22 Sept 2026
Source 28 · Department for Transport
Vehicle licensing statistics data tables
- Evidence period
- Quarterly and annual licensed-vehicle statistics
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 21 Sept 2026
Source 29 · Department for Transport
Road traffic statistics
- Evidence period
- Annual motor-vehicle mileage
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 26 Sept 2026
Source 30 · Department for Transport
Road safety open data
- Evidence period
- Police-reported collisions and casualties
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 26 Sept 2026
Source 31 · Financial Conduct Authority
FCA Warning List
- Evidence period
- Current unauthorised-firm warnings
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 32 · Financial Conduct Authority
Financial Services Register
- Evidence period
- Current regulatory permissions and status
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 33 · Financial Conduct Authority
Firm-level complaints data
- Evidence period
- Half-yearly regulated-firm complaints
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 34 · Financial Ombudsman Service
Quarterly complaints data: Q1 2026/27
- Evidence period
- April to June 2026
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 35 · City of London Police / IFED
Ghost broker sentenced for £302,000 insurance policy scam
- Evidence period
- Enforcement case
- Source published
- 1 Aug 2023
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 36 · City of London Police / IFED
Man jailed for fake car-insurance fraud
- Evidence period
- Enforcement case
- Source published
- 30 Apr 2025
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 37 · City of London Police / IFED
Serial ghost broker sentenced after repeated warnings
- Evidence period
- Enforcement case
- Source published
- 19 Sept 2025
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 38 · City of London Police / IFED
Fraudster sentenced for £17,000 Instagram policy scam
- Evidence period
- Enforcement case
- Source published
- 25 Jul 2024
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 39 · City of London Police / IFED
Fake car-insurance fraudsters ordered to repay £376,000
- Evidence period
- Enforcement and confiscation case
- Source published
- 10 Mar 2025
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026
Source 40 · City of London Police / IFED
Nationwide crackdown on ghost broking
- Evidence period
- Enforcement operation
- Source published
- Date unavailable
- Source checked
- 28 Sept 2026