DATA LAB / MOTOR INSURANCE
What might this car be worth?
Explore an indicative UK retail asking price. Compare the historical model with a cautious adjustment from current market aggregates.
Research betaNo paid valuation feedSnapshot: 19 October 2026
This snapshot covers selected 2018–2020 cars from nine makes. It excludes older cars, newer generations, electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, specialist imports, modified cars and write-offs. Other specifications may also lack evidence.
For research only. Current individual-vehicle accuracy has not been validated. This is not a claims-settlement or agreed-value tool.
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Explore a vehicle
YOUR RESEARCH ESTIMATE
A starting point, with its limits visible.
Choose a vehicle to see the baseline and experimental adjustment side by side.
How mileage changes the estimate
Modelled sensitivity, not observed sale prices. Vehicle, engine, fuel, transmission and valuation date stay fixed. Gaps mean insufficient support.
How age changes the estimate
Changing registration year at fixed mileage and specifications. This is a model comparison, not a forecast for this particular car.
KNOW WHAT WAS MEASURED
Evidence, not false precision
Autoza adjustment: agreement with aggregates
Baseline median absolute proxy gap30.2%
Adjusted median absolute proxy gap23.6%
Across 11 usable model groups: ten improved, one worsened. These are in-sample aggregate comparisons used to set the adjustment, not individual-vehicle errors or independent validation. Autoza’s separate median price, age and mileage may not describe the same car.
Historical ranges when information is missing
| Inputs | Median error | Range coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Complete | 6.18% | 82.49% |
| Engine missing | 9.08% | 83.30% |
| Mileage missing | 7.71% | 83.98% |
| Both missing | 10.53% | 85.85% |
Ranges under-covered older vehicles, so the age limit was added after inspecting the benchmark. Coverage among accepted historical requests was 84.87%; this is a post-selection descriptive result.
Coverage before confidence
Use this list to check supported model families for 2018–2020 at the October 2026 snapshot. A family shown here can still fail the mileage, fuel, transmission or engine checks.
| Make / model | Eligible specification cells | Historical fit rows |
|---|
Specification cells combine age, fuel and transmission; they are not current reference vehicles. Unsupported cars retain customer-entered values in quote journeys.
How to interpret the result
Baseline, adjustment and ranges
The fitted boosted model uses age, mileage, make/model, fuel, transmission and engine size. The baseline applies the recorded ONS national price factor. The optional Autoza comparison adds a conservative model/make adjustment, capped at ±15%.
The baseline range transfers historical residuals to current prices without a current coverage guarantee. The adjusted range includes both the baseline and adjusted scenarios. It is not an 80% prediction interval. Autoza’s population percentiles are never presented as individual uncertainty.
All Autoza calibration profiles were older than eight years. Transfer of those adjustments to these younger vehicles is unvalidated. The baseline is the primary estimate; the adjustment is a challenger.
Sources, dates and limitations
Historical data: the publisher-labelled CC0 UK used-car dataset, assumed 2020 observation cohort. No exact advert dates, trim or generation labels. Historical training and calibration groups are separated, but they are approximate duplicate groups rather than verified unique vehicles.
ONS D7E9: August 2026 index, released 16 September; assumed June 2020 base. Autoza: October 2026 report, observed 6 October. Snapshot date: 19 October 2026. Opening this page later does not refresh those inputs.
Mileage estimates come from historical listing peers, not MOT records. No MSRP anchor, paid lookup or seller advert scraping is used.
Historical dataset · ONS D7E9 · Autoza October report · CC BY 4.0
Autoza attribution: report figures are reused and transformed into aggregate comparisons and shrinkage factors; no endorsement implied.
Versioned calculation module
Version phase5-js-exact-v1; baseline phase4-v1; candidate autoza-aggregate-2026-10-v1. The same browser module is reusable in other integrations. Its default quote mode returns customer_input_required; research mode must be explicitly selected. No live quote prefilling is enabled.
Calculation module · Versioned model data · Service contract