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concatenation, axis derivations etc", "ColumnVariableDescription": "Density (number of persons per hectare)" } ], "META0.CSV": [ { "DatasetId": "QS102EW", "DatasetTitle": "Population density", "StatisticalPopulations": "All usual residents; Area (Hectares)", "Annotations": "" } ] } } ], "archivePath": "/research/social-factors/exploratory-v2/census2011-authority-features-original.json" } ], "assumptions": [ "All burglary categories summed, including attempts and aggravated burglary, with explicit group/code allowlist; no vehicle or traffic offences.", "Fiscal Q4 is January\u2013March of the next calendar year. Require all four calendar quarters and all expected code rows; missing values never zero-imputed.", "Latest revised July2026 crime vintage is a retrospective predictor dataset, not a reconstruction of information available at historical forecast origins. A two-calendar-year lag controls event-year timing but does not prove vintage availability.", "ONS April2025 district-to-force plus district-to-county exact-code lookups establish whole force membership. Restrict to authorities with complete 2016\u20132025 count/mileage and exact Census2011 matches; no split-authority or mileage allocation.", "Fixed2011 all-age population normalises burglary intensity. This is not the current-year resident crime rate.", "Force income/employment scores use fixed2011 population weighting; approximate contextual aggregates, not republished official force deprivation scores.", "Qualification shares use summed16+ denominators, age shares summedall-age denominators, populationdensity summedpopulation/summedland.", "Every 2018\u20132025 model row includes collisions and miles at whole-force level, paired to crime/mileage/traffic at y-2. Region holds fixed official panel geography.", "Regional validation is fragile with29 force areas; do not treat290 repeated force-years as independent geographical units.", "Force reporting practices and recording quality vary. Negative component counts retained as revisions per workbook notes. GMP2019\u20132021 and DevonCornwall2022\u20132023 predictor windows flagged for explicit exclusion sensitivity; current workbook numeric counts are not called missing." ], "validation": { "englishForceCount": 39, "panelAuthorityCount": 153, "allPanelAuthoritiesMappedExactly": true, "annualCrimeYears": [ 2013, 2024 ], "annualCrimeRows": 468, "annualCrimeIncomplete": 0, "fixedCompleteForceCount": 29, "fixedCompleteForceNames": [ "Metropolitan Police", "Lancashire", "Merseyside", "Greater Manchester", "Cheshire", "Durham", "West Yorkshire", "Humberside", "Cleveland", "West Midlands", "West Mercia", "Warwickshire", "Derbyshire", "Nottinghamshire", "Lincolnshire", "Leicestershire", "Cambridgeshire", "Norfolk", "Suffolk", "Bedfordshire", "Hertfordshire", "Essex", "Hampshire", "Surrey", "Kent", "Sussex", "London, City of", "Gloucestershire", "Wiltshire" ], "forceOutcomeRows": 390, "fixedCompleteOutcomeRows": 290, "modelRows2018To2025": 232, "regionsInModel": { "London": 2, "North West": 4, 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