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  "id": "social-deciles-validation-2026-10-10-v2",
  "version": "v2",
  "phase": 5,
  "frozenAt": "2026-10-10T17:36:01.731274+00:00",
  "computedAt": "2026-10-10T17:41:10.001296+00:00",
  "baseEvidenceRelease": "lens-2026-10-09-cbec43fe76c4",
  "baseDecileVersion": "v1",
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  "geography": "133 English authorities; 399 temporal authority-year assessments; 133 leave-region-out assessments in 2025",
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    "D": "B + categorical income and employment deciles",
    "E": "B + categorical education deciles",
    "DE": "B + all three categorical decile features"
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  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Historical joint road-class/urban-rural exposure controls unavailable; baseline remains reduced.",
    "Complete-history cohort selected retrospectively; narrower than England. Resident characteristics are assigned to road locations, not drivers.",
    "2011 education is old; 2021 qualifications and 2025 deprivation never backdated into historical models.",
    "Current LSOA profiles mix explicit 2021 education and 2025 deprivation vintages. Nomis TS067 v1 not reconciled to later ONS editions; profiles provisional.",
    "No matched all-road LSOA mileage; LSOA collision-rate modelling remains blocked. No zero mileage, population proxy or invented exposure.",
    "Decile coefficients are conditional associations with correlated area features, not causal or individual insurance effects.",
    "Only nine regional blocks; bootstrap tail precision is limited.",
    "All 2023\u20132025 outcomes and the original temporal estimates had already been inspected; extension details are outcome-informed exploratory design.",
    "Boundary and historical rural/urban interaction sensitivities remain data-blocked."
  ],
  "decision": "No hypothesis promoted. No authority coefficient or validation label transfers to LSOAs.",
  "futureReserve": "2027\u20132029 reserved prospectively; access ledger and programme-wide prior-inspection audit required before opening each year.",
  "amendment": {
    "id": "v2-error-handling-amendment-1",
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-10T17:39:25.855692+00:00",
    "reason": "The first fit run stopped with KeyError 2019 at the pandemic-stress D design: 2018/2019 training contains only 2015 deprivation. Earlier spatial fits and sensitivity point results had been computed. No altered model or cutpoints.",
    "originalCodeSha256": "b0a75d7c5b721cebf545b4f3c452d49b04caf543750e18fbb1a1772d91ab0fb9",
    "amendmentCodeSha256": "0689b7b4c41d4cbd7565534af5465c53455d2c7db47312b3579fb771400fdeb0",
    "change": "Convert missing training-vintage lookup into the existing unavailable-fit ValueError path. D/DE pandemic stress fits remain failed, while other fits are retained. Repeat exact deterministic fits to save the interrupted in-memory diagnostics. Bootstrap procedure is unchanged.",
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