{ "id": "social-deciles-fusion-v3", "computedAt": "2026-10-10T19:28:23.208664+00:00", "exploratory": true, "status": "no incremental gain", "gates": { "pooledGain": false, "pairedLowerBound": false, "everyAnnualGain": false, "pooledCalibration": true, "annualCalibration": true, "spatialGain": false, "fiveRegions": false, "absoluteRateError": true, "trainingSupport": true, "convergedFullRankFits": true }, "failedGates": [ "pooledGain", "pairedLowerBound", "everyAnnualGain", "spatialGain", "fiveRegions" ], "models": { "B": "Existing baseline", "C-linear": "Baseline + three continuous linear scores", "C-smooth": "Baseline + three natural splines, 3 df each", "DE": "Baseline + all ten categorical deciles for each feature", "Q": "Baseline + fixed pairs 1\u20132,3\u20134,5\u20136,7\u20138,9\u201310 for each feature", "F": "Baseline + adjacent fused decile effects; separate groupings within each feature, shared tuned penalty ratio" }, "comparisons": [ { "comparator": "B", "gain": 0.0, "interval": { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, "spatialGain": 0.0, "upper95ExcessDeviance": -0.0, "replacementEligible": false }, { "comparator": "C-linear", "gain": -0.12316388837866654, "interval": { "lower95": -0.26281892092871273, "upper95": 0.027712891127706987, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, "spatialGain": 0.041672400552290156, "upper95ExcessDeviance": 0.26281892092871273, "replacementEligible": false }, { "comparator": "C-smooth", "gain": -0.10534299271151659, "interval": { "lower95": -0.3912771979307392, "upper95": 0.13533675666964798, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, "spatialGain": 0.11117755930668827, "upper95ExcessDeviance": 0.3912771979307392, "replacementEligible": false }, { "comparator": "DE", "gain": -0.08381498176067104, "interval": { "lower95": -0.48928682425163167, "upper95": 0.03507595599343915, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, "spatialGain": 0.2808405543658218, "upper95ExcessDeviance": 0.48928682425163167, "replacementEligible": false }, { "comparator": "Q", "gain": -0.08207309761447412, "interval": { "lower95": -0.20518254875429834, "upper95": 0.06236242148983049, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, "spatialGain": 0.07242496082329819, "upper95ExcessDeviance": 0.20518254875429834, "replacementEligible": false } ], "temporal": { "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 8810.443343855506, "observedExpected": 1.0366022516205133, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03510914283560989, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03386944489144607, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0049697597028093, "rows": 399 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 7844.307883307881, "observedExpected": 1.0295586541490196, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03510914283560989, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03410115848584587, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004680367819917501, "rows": 399 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 7970.777760342615, "observedExpected": 1.0276772961926832, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03510914283560989, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03416358711599594, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004802361351694779, "rows": 399 }, "DE": { "deviance": 8129.102745509967, "observedExpected": 1.0266415476575315, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03510914283560989, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03419805375665709, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0048747980550446915, "rows": 399 }, "Q": { "deviance": 8142.188696197058, "observedExpected": 1.0264183574558996, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03510914283560989, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03420548997450912, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004863689681987531, "rows": 399 }, "F": { "deviance": 8810.443343855506, "observedExpected": 1.0366022516205133, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03510914283560989, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03386944489144607, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0049697597028093, "rows": 399 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": -0.12316388837866654, "C-smooth": -0.10534299271151659, "DE": -0.08381498176067104, "Q": -0.08207309761447412 } }, "annual": [ { "year": 2023, "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 2404.354796513543, "observedExpected": 1.0132997145105183, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03664355487097104, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03616260258069052, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004606650431579996, "rows": 133 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 2267.33433678144, "observedExpected": 1.01096258803996, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03664355487097104, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03624620268294502, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0044658088461227595, "rows": 133 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 2595.4441190927632, "observedExpected": 1.0101770875746983, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03664355487097104, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03627438725515679, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.00488743113592807, "rows": 133 }, "DE": { "deviance": 2396.463385545683, "observedExpected": 1.0045502216752384, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03664355487097104, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03647757382389743, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004800606701270817, "rows": 133 }, "Q": { "deviance": 2362.4335986893693, "observedExpected": 1.0040144290073922, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03664355487097104, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.0364970400945316, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004653362567841157, "rows": 133 }, "F": { "deviance": 2404.354796513543, "observedExpected": 1.0132997145105183, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03664355487097104, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03616260258069052, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004606650431579996, "rows": 133 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": -0.06043240183386822, "C-smooth": 0.07362490341191219, "DE": -0.003292940345117401, "Q": -0.01774492110484327 } }, { "year": 2024, "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 3016.6897824188363, "observedExpected": 1.0257392962243592, "observedRatePer100k": 0.0346456239019341, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03377624707317061, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005022098779426038, "rows": 133 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 2667.7190652363643, "observedExpected": 1.0168940525523726, "observedRatePer100k": 0.0346456239019341, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.034070042808269606, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004699851020954493, "rows": 133 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 2673.478111443028, "observedExpected": 1.0154778066123082, "observedRatePer100k": 0.0346456239019341, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03411755892284232, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004701807785650195, "rows": 133 }, "DE": { "deviance": 2714.2848994467795, "observedExpected": 1.0156206055877242, "observedRatePer100k": 0.0346456239019341, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.0341127619027434, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004810170400220247, "rows": 133 }, "Q": { "deviance": 2688.529394699152, "observedExpected": 1.014921360814509, "observedRatePer100k": 0.0346456239019341, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03413626438419801, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0048468664767927555, "rows": 133 }, "F": { "deviance": 3016.6897824188363, "observedExpected": 1.0257392962243592, "observedRatePer100k": 0.0346456239019341, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03377624707317061, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005022098779426038, "rows": 133 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": -0.13081239390233645, "C-smooth": -0.1283764656635089, "DE": -0.11141235875191002, "Q": -0.12205943828127852 } }, { "year": 2025, "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 3389.3987649231253, "observedExpected": 1.0736002703968024, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.031744561028175564, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005269346112050432, "rows": 133 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 2909.254481290076, "observedExpected": 1.0630865961152693, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03205850720723575, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004868620766277541, "rows": 133 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 2701.855529806824, "observedExpected": 1.0594461544258744, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03216866582704803, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004818811131701913, "rows": 133 }, "DE": { "deviance": 3018.354460517505, "observedExpected": 1.0624209582162978, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.032078592802513746, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005009920801256391, "rows": 133 }, "Q": { "deviance": 3091.225702808537, "observedExpected": 1.0630823013255042, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.0320586367217131, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005083478738041402, "rows": 133 }, "F": { "deviance": 3389.3987649231253, "observedExpected": 1.0736002703968024, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.031744561028175564, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005269346112050432, "rows": 133 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": -0.1650403176212123, "C-smooth": -0.2544707618639621, "DE": -0.12292933426447328, "Q": -0.09645787489528268 } } ], "spatial": { "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 5019.93328942096, "observedExpected": 1.1517059119839388, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.029591729059347198, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.006340797955767863, "rows": 133 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 5238.2225997810965, "observedExpected": 1.140840990290729, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.029873549069088037, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.006484741155032489, "rows": 133 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 5647.84715100717, "observedExpected": 1.1126417465320195, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03063067641467136, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.006296843598423477, "rows": 133 }, "DE": { "deviance": 6980.278601491801, "observedExpected": 1.135672495266867, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03000950489293001, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.00723949708135685, "rows": 133 }, "Q": { "deviance": 5411.88914901867, "observedExpected": 1.1269019732750518, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.030243064713454608, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.006543093563986987, "rows": 133 }, "F": { "deviance": 5019.93328942096, "observedExpected": 1.1517059119839388, "observedRatePer100k": 0.03408096930347708, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.029591729059347198, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.006340797955767863, "rows": 133 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": 0.041672400552290156, "C-smooth": 0.11117755930668827, "DE": 0.2808405543658218, "Q": 0.07242496082329819 } }, "regional": [ { "region": "East Midlands", "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 330.84515071190447, "observedExpected": 1.1986541344520476, "observedRatePer100k": 0.028226139536420558, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.023548193532343546, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0050239345313966765, "rows": 8 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 393.63283431342063, "observedExpected": 1.2240394041535358, "observedRatePer100k": 0.028226139536420558, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.023059829153081784, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005530814371651057, "rows": 8 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 268.1477315605903, "observedExpected": 1.1536512916124604, "observedRatePer100k": 0.028226139536420558, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.024466786230498506, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0044209136605916615, "rows": 8 }, "DE": { "deviance": 462.52753937701675, "observedExpected": 1.258960479935902, "observedRatePer100k": 0.028226139536420558, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.022420195062721623, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.006146043988830454, "rows": 8 }, "Q": { "deviance": 358.4702139364595, "observedExpected": 1.218312272283066, "observedRatePer100k": 0.028226139536420558, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.023168230492766822, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005425856212074833, "rows": 8 }, "F": { "deviance": 330.84515071190447, "observedExpected": 1.1986541344520476, "observedRatePer100k": 0.028226139536420558, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.023548193532343546, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0050239345313966765, "rows": 8 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": 0.1595082476059987, "C-smooth": -0.23381670539005528, "DE": 0.28470172574475605, "Q": 0.07706376192653963 } }, { "region": "East of England", "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 865.2202626596019, "observedExpected": 1.313620857737513, "observedRatePer100k": 0.025295596455908353, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.019256390690595218, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.006108528148543789, "rows": 11 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 738.4320653041841, "observedExpected": 1.2922034870774677, "observedRatePer100k": 0.025295596455908353, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.019575551922645353, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005753036217111934, "rows": 11 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 515.6966173851512, "observedExpected": 1.2456817755140681, "observedRatePer100k": 0.025295596455908353, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.020306628027426478, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005135821765057853, "rows": 11 }, "DE": { "deviance": 759.8782082790522, "observedExpected": 1.2852163923213706, "observedRatePer100k": 0.025295596455908353, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.019681974651925498, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005805383475178976, "rows": 11 }, "Q": { "deviance": 744.0716097232039, "observedExpected": 1.2863850008587019, "observedRatePer100k": 0.025295596455908353, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.019664094683180193, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005729967704954317, "rows": 11 }, "F": { "deviance": 865.2202626596019, "observedExpected": 1.313620857737513, "observedRatePer100k": 0.025295596455908353, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.019256390690595218, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.006108528148543789, "rows": 11 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": -0.17169920336976374, "C-smooth": -0.677769900928799, "DE": -0.13863018209079203, "Q": -0.16281853971214622 } }, { "region": "London", "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 1881.1461404454753, "observedExpected": 1.243550649897229, "observedRatePer100k": 0.10636966014229442, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.08553705484459771, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.021508555773908294, "rows": 33 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 2205.5625606100557, "observedExpected": 1.2871411294596296, "observedRatePer100k": 0.10636966014229442, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.08264024644053662, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.02388047945737394, "rows": 33 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 2887.366698455853, "observedExpected": 1.2877033778787286, "observedRatePer100k": 0.10636966014229442, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.08260416332643336, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.024394316471949958, "rows": 33 }, "DE": { "deviance": 3443.7980401339996, "observedExpected": 1.363406925023108, "observedRatePer100k": 0.10636966014229442, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.07801754427827305, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.029542109511089307, "rows": 33 }, "Q": { "deviance": 2260.216862064677, "observedExpected": 1.2494910543354538, "observedRatePer100k": 0.10636966014229442, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.0851303895079645, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0241960399474995, "rows": 33 }, "F": { "deviance": 1881.1461404454753, "observedExpected": 1.243550649897229, "observedRatePer100k": 0.10636966014229442, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.08553705484459771, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.021508555773908294, "rows": 33 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": 0.14709010116441545, "C-smooth": 0.3484907402126992, "DE": 0.45375828706485954, "Q": 0.16771431448968388 } }, { "region": "North East", "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 177.88963148524297, "observedExpected": 0.8321012372815653, "observedRatePer100k": 0.022033427289689943, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.0264792627417213, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005281698897067181, "rows": 10 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 303.9417525506383, "observedExpected": 0.758182587780954, "observedRatePer100k": 0.022033427289689943, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02906084582366537, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0073465278707119, "rows": 10 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 343.6776124983112, "observedExpected": 0.7457901166535467, "observedRatePer100k": 0.022033427289689943, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.029543737303139226, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.007510310013449286, "rows": 10 }, "DE": { "deviance": 333.13518547054383, "observedExpected": 0.752693539290147, "observedRatePer100k": 0.022033427289689943, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.029272773233139895, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.007239345943449946, "rows": 10 }, "Q": { "deviance": 311.71776480813196, "observedExpected": 0.7621833013186432, "observedRatePer100k": 0.022033427289689943, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.028908304933432945, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.007226524187238863, "rows": 10 }, "F": { "deviance": 177.88963148524297, "observedExpected": 0.8321012372815653, "observedRatePer100k": 0.022033427289689943, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.0264792627417213, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005281698897067181, "rows": 10 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": 0.41472459774803194, "C-smooth": 0.4823938917868352, "DE": 0.4660136808005465, "Q": 0.4293246918579141 } }, { "region": "North West", "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 405.13406122642556, "observedExpected": 0.9770211857684205, "observedRatePer100k": 0.026541146805904112, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02716537490948027, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005179632495693535, "rows": 22 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 427.7144100209816, "observedExpected": 0.9355930572093455, "observedRatePer100k": 0.026541146805904112, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.028368259684472357, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005220890910074579, "rows": 22 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 476.3357610433758, "observedExpected": 0.8868244650052817, "observedRatePer100k": 0.026541146805904112, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02992829793632953, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005524194099263143, "rows": 22 }, "DE": { "deviance": 662.9966561025458, "observedExpected": 0.8456771406131384, "observedRatePer100k": 0.026541146805904112, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03138449123345237, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.006418642423393536, "rows": 22 }, "Q": { "deviance": 543.9232486952426, "observedExpected": 0.8981207858563712, "observedRatePer100k": 0.026541146805904112, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.029551867882221146, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005780649996421782, "rows": 22 }, "F": { "deviance": 405.13406122642556, "observedExpected": 0.9770211857684205, "observedRatePer100k": 0.026541146805904112, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02716537490948027, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005179632495693535, "rows": 22 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": 0.05279305131068257, "C-smooth": 0.14947796415912284, "DE": 0.3889349855728934, "Q": 0.2551631830441944 } }, { "region": "South East", "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 670.1058841405649, "observedExpected": 1.17376375196683, "observedRatePer100k": 0.029764280084416835, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.025357981991301053, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005269013866232001, "rows": 18 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 625.563548989085, "observedExpected": 1.170320854853113, "observedRatePer100k": 0.029764280084416835, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02543258112592768, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005166952252562298, "rows": 18 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 585.5084106981033, "observedExpected": 1.1547057119345643, "observedRatePer100k": 0.029764280084416835, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02577650718861564, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.00503859819623661, "rows": 18 }, "DE": { "deviance": 646.9758580424681, "observedExpected": 1.166122284699527, "observedRatePer100k": 0.029764280084416835, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02552414997547719, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005228269027731183, "rows": 18 }, "Q": { "deviance": 617.347925622135, "observedExpected": 1.1714116061678406, "observedRatePer100k": 0.029764280084416835, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02540889976477849, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.00496664612608538, "rows": 18 }, "F": { "deviance": 670.1058841405649, "observedExpected": 1.17376375196683, "observedRatePer100k": 0.029764280084416835, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.025357981991301053, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.005269013866232001, "rows": 18 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": -0.07120353355540066, "C-smooth": -0.1444854965304354, "DE": -0.03575098793961251, "Q": -0.08545903586743697 } }, { "region": "South West", "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 267.7923462981146, "observedExpected": 1.1812957838046854, "observedRatePer100k": 0.024634171004290276, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02085351640293611, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.003997842485376866, "rows": 7 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 205.6897033498172, "observedExpected": 1.0952531012364786, "observedRatePer100k": 0.024634171004290276, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.022491761015312074, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0039023521441687173, "rows": 7 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 220.51376977681593, "observedExpected": 1.1102563241364645, "observedRatePer100k": 0.024634171004290276, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.022187823179886188, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0038441216699885935, "rows": 7 }, "DE": { "deviance": 246.04991381152632, "observedExpected": 1.137092771430108, "observedRatePer100k": 0.024634171004290276, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02166416991052381, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0037942431127715357, "rows": 7 }, "Q": { "deviance": 227.32418795677, "observedExpected": 1.148579931021729, "observedRatePer100k": 0.024634171004290276, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.021447502554199027, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0035898174311815743, "rows": 7 }, "F": { "deviance": 267.7923462981146, "observedExpected": 1.1812957838046854, "observedRatePer100k": 0.024634171004290276, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02085351640293611, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.003997842485376866, "rows": 7 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": -0.30192392685150216, "C-smooth": -0.21440192405739444, "DE": -0.08836594229918293, "Q": -0.17801958825886288 } }, { "region": "West Midlands", "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 332.59504853664436, "observedExpected": 1.101736469716331, "observedRatePer100k": 0.027769680418539715, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.025205374589886906, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004652211154807695, "rows": 12 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 263.55561827216206, "observedExpected": 1.0549870430357504, "observedRatePer100k": 0.027769680418539715, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.026322295237514757, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004067401304650375, "rows": 12 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 287.644042661349, "observedExpected": 1.010279807628774, "observedRatePer100k": 0.027769680418539715, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.02748711813187465, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0039698948718151555, "rows": 12 }, "DE": { "deviance": 294.5445712863144, "observedExpected": 1.0114082188807998, "observedRatePer100k": 0.027769680418539715, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.027456451213407167, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004451915880070089, "rows": 12 }, "Q": { "deviance": 256.72815857279693, "observedExpected": 1.0574496699307587, "observedRatePer100k": 0.027769680418539715, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.026260994927879696, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004089364251219045, "rows": 12 }, "F": { "deviance": 332.59504853664436, "observedExpected": 1.101736469716331, "observedRatePer100k": 0.027769680418539715, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.025205374589886906, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.004652211154807695, "rows": 12 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": -0.26195393107950515, "C-smooth": -0.15627302919051722, "DE": -0.1291841064466357, "Q": -0.29551448655109214 } }, { "region": "Yorkshire and The Humber", "metrics": { "B": { "deviance": 89.20476391698588, "observedExpected": 1.0520549168061692, "observedRatePer100k": 0.034994364595697144, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03326286873116198, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0033149626372655423, "rows": 12 }, "C-linear": { "deviance": 74.1301063707511, "observedExpected": 1.0654050636296115, "observedRatePer100k": 0.034994364595697144, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03284606558605859, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0028327954345289887, "rows": 12 }, "C-smooth": { "deviance": 62.956506927620694, "observedExpected": 1.0278956784107323, "observedRatePer100k": 0.034994364595697144, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.0340446655538072, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.002506602163563277, "rows": 12 }, "DE": { "deviance": 130.3726289883354, "observedExpected": 1.042059011055512, "observedRatePer100k": 0.034994364595697144, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03358194135306311, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.003125795779429428, "rows": 12 }, "Q": { "deviance": 92.08917763925263, "observedExpected": 1.031968894948287, "observedRatePer100k": 0.034994364595697144, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.033910290094015624, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0033250715317021348, "rows": 12 }, "F": { "deviance": 89.20476391698588, "observedExpected": 1.0520549168061692, "observedRatePer100k": 0.034994364595697144, "predictedRatePer100k": 0.03326286873116198, "exposureWeightedAbsoluteRateError": 0.0033149626372655423, "rows": 12 } }, "gain": { "B": 0.0, "C-linear": -0.2033540525470321, "C-smooth": -0.41692683203567915, "DE": 0.315770767152612, "Q": 0.03132196199607795 } } ], "grouping": { "fold": "temporal-2025", "trainingYears": [ 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "trainingAreas": 133, "assessmentYear": 2025, "selected": { "ratio": 1.0, "lambda": 0.2709034040161525, "status": "converged", "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "effects": { "income": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "employment": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "education": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "socialParameters": 0, "support": [ { "feature": "income", "vintage": "2015", "deciles": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ], "areas": 133, "collisions": 195416, "motorMiles": 479502500000.0, "supported": true }, { "feature": "income", "vintage": "2019", "deciles": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ], "areas": 133, "collisions": 258041, "motorMiles": 705913600000.0, "supported": true }, { "feature": "employment", "vintage": "2015", "deciles": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ], "areas": 133, "collisions": 195416, "motorMiles": 479502500000.0, "supported": true }, { "feature": "employment", "vintage": "2019", "deciles": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ], "areas": 133, "collisions": 258041, "motorMiles": 705913600000.0, "supported": true }, { "feature": "education", "vintage": "2011", "deciles": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ], "areas": 133, "collisions": 453457, "motorMiles": 1185416100000.0, "supported": true } ], "supported": true, "columns": 16, "rank": 16, "diagnostics": { "alpha": 0.031252126579137646, "converged": true, "gradientMax": 0.0028969333977313383, "iterations": 63, "negativeLogLikelihood": 3988.833714990564, "endpoint": "Exact constrained baseline at lambda_max" }, "coefficients": [ -3.0698494710201043, 0.22221950751866343, -0.08408086727733799, -0.05073526311732762, -0.05374648857325962, -0.10795074437156185, -0.029786778286396663, 0.5286120453442011, 0.07103290915947337, 0.10677816987006129, -0.2240347405418909, -0.10775350537000482, 0.011180739102068122, 0.058251183525778356, -0.09044681133183968, 0.013287095582086478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "transform": { "featureNames": [ "intercept", "logDensity2011", "ageUnder25Share2011", "age65PlusShare2011", "lagCarTaxiShare", "lagLogMilesPerRoadKm", "year", "logHistoryRate", "region:East of England", "region:London", "region:North East", "region:North West", "region:South East", "region:South West", "region:West Midlands", "region:Yorkshire and The Humber", "income:boundary1/2", "income:boundary2/3", "income:boundary3/4", "income:boundary4/5", "income:boundary5/6", "income:boundary6/7", "income:boundary7/8", "income:boundary8/9", "income:boundary9/10", "employment:boundary1/2", "employment:boundary2/3", "employment:boundary3/4", "employment:boundary4/5", "employment:boundary5/6", "employment:boundary6/7", "employment:boundary7/8", "employment:boundary8/9", "employment:boundary9/10", "education:boundary1/2", "education:boundary2/3", "education:boundary3/4", "education:boundary4/5", "education:boundary5/6", "education:boundary6/7", "education:boundary7/8", "education:boundary8/9", "education:boundary9/10" ], "mean": [ 7.277628112929147, 0.3116795160835884, 0.1526539478913407, 0.7673111389658688, 13.827968314848516, 2021.2, -3.148263341184053 ], "scale": [ 1.2958608381563763, 0.03194734350680609, 0.037631530841192015, 0.03601945389813692, 0.33537570446913945, 2.315167380558035, 0.39115560021582974 ], "referenceRegion": "East Midlands", "trainingRegionShares": { "East Midlands": 0.06015037593984962, "East of England": 0.08270676691729323, "London": 0.24812030075187969, "North East": 0.07518796992481203, "North West": 0.16541353383458646, "South East": 0.13533834586466165, "South West": 0.05263157894736842, "West Midlands": 0.09022556390977443, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 0.09022556390977443 }, "unseenRegion": "Training-row-weighted average regional effect", "historyPriorRatePer100k": 0.038252981379281084, "historyPriorExposureIn100kMiles": 9347.0, "referenceDecile": 5 }, "thresholds": { "income": { "2015": { "negativeScoreCutpoints": [ -0.225, -0.205, -0.188, -0.17, -0.156, -0.14, -0.127, -0.112, -0.09 ], "scoreCutpointsDescending": [ 0.225, 0.205, 0.188, 0.17, 0.156, 0.14, 0.127, 0.112, 0.09 ], "distinctAreas": 133, "direction": "1 highest deprivation / no qualifications; 10 lowest", "tieRule": "Equal scores stay together in the lower numbered decile; empty bands retained", "referencePopulation": "Unique training areas in this feature vintage, equal area weights" }, "2019": { "negativeScoreCutpoints": [ -0.2, -0.185, -0.164, -0.152, -0.138, -0.121, -0.109, -0.098, -0.078 ], "scoreCutpointsDescending": [ 0.2, 0.185, 0.164, 0.152, 0.138, 0.121, 0.109, 0.098, 0.078 ], "distinctAreas": 133, "direction": "1 highest deprivation / no qualifications; 10 lowest", "tieRule": "Equal scores stay together in the lower numbered decile; empty bands retained", "referencePopulation": "Unique training areas in this feature vintage, equal area weights" } }, "employment": { "2015": { "negativeScoreCutpoints": [ -0.18, -0.167, -0.145, -0.134, -0.122, -0.112, -0.1, -0.091, -0.076 ], "scoreCutpointsDescending": [ 0.18, 0.167, 0.145, 0.134, 0.122, 0.112, 0.1, 0.091, 0.076 ], "distinctAreas": 133, "direction": "1 highest deprivation / no qualifications; 10 lowest", "tieRule": "Equal scores stay together in the lower numbered decile; empty bands retained", "referencePopulation": "Unique training areas in this feature vintage, equal area weights" }, "2019": { "negativeScoreCutpoints": [ -0.157, -0.143, -0.124, -0.108, -0.1, -0.092, -0.081, -0.074, -0.063 ], "scoreCutpointsDescending": [ 0.157, 0.143, 0.124, 0.108, 0.1, 0.092, 0.081, 0.074, 0.063 ], "distinctAreas": 133, "direction": "1 highest deprivation / no qualifications; 10 lowest", "tieRule": "Equal scores stay together in the lower numbered decile; empty bands retained", "referencePopulation": "Unique training areas in this feature vintage, equal area weights" } }, "education": { "2011": { "negativeScoreCutpoints": [ -0.295330700201736, -0.27500482060302217, -0.25498539193137315, -0.23718865090133748, -0.22708411694817096, -0.20805293135956598, -0.19206867961587068, -0.1777205618746537, -0.1591674791196839 ], "scoreCutpointsDescending": [ 0.295330700201736, 0.27500482060302217, 0.25498539193137315, 0.23718865090133748, 0.22708411694817096, 0.20805293135956598, 0.19206867961587068, 0.1777205618746537, 0.1591674791196839 ], "distinctAreas": 133, "direction": "1 highest deprivation / no qualifications; 10 lowest", "tieRule": "Equal scores stay together in the lower numbered decile; empty bands retained", "referencePopulation": "Unique training areas in this feature vintage, equal area weights" } } } }, "comparators": [ { "model": "B", "status": "converged", "columns": 16, "rank": 16, "diagnostics": { "alpha": 0.031252126579137646, "converged": true, "gradientMax": 0.0028969333977313383, "iterations": 63, "negativeLogLikelihood": 3988.833714990564 }, "transform": { "featureNames": [ "intercept", "logDensity2011", "ageUnder25Share2011", "age65PlusShare2011", "lagCarTaxiShare", "lagLogMilesPerRoadKm", "year", "logHistoryRate", "region:East of England", "region:London", "region:North East", "region:North West", "region:South East", "region:South West", "region:West Midlands", "region:Yorkshire and The Humber" ], "mean": [ 7.277628112929147, 0.3116795160835884, 0.1526539478913407, 0.7673111389658688, 13.827968314848516, 2021.2, -3.148263341184053 ], "scale": [ 1.2958608381563763, 0.03194734350680609, 0.037631530841192015, 0.03601945389813692, 0.33537570446913945, 2.315167380558035, 0.39115560021582974 ], "referenceRegion": "East Midlands", "trainingRegionShares": { "East Midlands": 0.06015037593984962, "East of England": 0.08270676691729323, "London": 0.24812030075187969, "North East": 0.07518796992481203, "North West": 0.16541353383458646, "South East": 0.13533834586466165, "South West": 0.05263157894736842, "West Midlands": 0.09022556390977443, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 0.09022556390977443 }, "unseenRegion": "Training-row-weighted average regional effect", "historyPriorRatePer100k": 0.038252981379281084, "historyPriorExposureIn100kMiles": 9347.0, "socialTransforms": {}, "referenceDecile": 5 }, "coefficients": [ -3.0698494710201043, 0.22221950751866343, -0.08408086727733799, -0.05073526311732762, -0.05374648857325962, -0.10795074437156185, -0.029786778286396663, 0.5286120453442011, 0.07103290915947337, 0.10677816987006129, -0.2240347405418909, -0.10775350537000482, 0.011180739102068122, 0.058251183525778356, -0.09044681133183968, 0.013287095582086478 ] }, { "model": "C-linear", "status": "converged", "columns": 19, "rank": 19, "diagnostics": { "alpha": 0.02984359147114487, "converged": true, "gradientMax": 0.005299467499775756, "iterations": 104, "negativeLogLikelihood": 3975.4378762629194 }, "transform": { "featureNames": [ "intercept", "logDensity2011", "ageUnder25Share2011", "age65PlusShare2011", "lagCarTaxiShare", "lagLogMilesPerRoadKm", "year", "logHistoryRate", "region:East of England", "region:London", "region:North East", "region:North West", "region:South East", "region:South West", "region:West Midlands", "region:Yorkshire and The Humber", "income:linear", "employment:linear", "education:linear" ], "mean": [ 7.277628112929147, 0.3116795160835884, 0.1526539478913407, 0.7673111389658688, 13.827968314848516, 2021.2, -3.148263341184053 ], "scale": [ 1.2958608381563763, 0.03194734350680609, 0.037631530841192015, 0.03601945389813692, 0.33537570446913945, 2.315167380558035, 0.39115560021582974 ], "referenceRegion": "East Midlands", "trainingRegionShares": { "East Midlands": 0.06015037593984962, "East of England": 0.08270676691729323, "London": 0.24812030075187969, "North East": 0.07518796992481203, "North West": 0.16541353383458646, "South East": 0.13533834586466165, "South West": 0.05263157894736842, "West Midlands": 0.09022556390977443, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 0.09022556390977443 }, "unseenRegion": "Training-row-weighted average regional effect", "historyPriorRatePer100k": 0.038252981379281084, "historyPriorExposureIn100kMiles": 9347.0, "socialTransforms": { "income": { "mean": [ 0.14730526315789474 ], "scale": [ 0.04931511430195573 ] }, "employment": { "mean": [ 0.1135624060150376 ], "scale": [ 0.03928530039714344 ] }, "education": { "mean": [ 0.22382032956566403 ], "scale": [ 0.05418584021190159 ] } }, "referenceDecile": 5 }, "coefficients": [ -3.0605703525467134, 0.21030027881231025, -0.10528067330379423, -0.006710828630870586, -0.04195958550693426, -0.10457784842408525, -0.02615378252686641, 0.48059447499093944, 0.07126500875210996, 0.10417320801533779, -0.2659613785461901, -0.12916649863848853, 0.017445697295025764, 0.01039571624504245, -0.12216392622514553, 0.03529333486059322, 0.22740980437701455, -0.14323567996812528, -0.06044932630773835 ] }, { "model": "C-smooth", "status": "converged", "columns": 25, "rank": 25, "diagnostics": { "alpha": 0.027376839971555596, "converged": true, "gradientMax": 0.003940132647423178, "iterations": 234, "negativeLogLikelihood": 3944.1638956799366 }, "transform": { "featureNames": [ "intercept", "logDensity2011", "ageUnder25Share2011", "age65PlusShare2011", "lagCarTaxiShare", "lagLogMilesPerRoadKm", "year", "logHistoryRate", "region:East of England", "region:London", "region:North East", "region:North West", "region:South East", "region:South West", "region:West Midlands", "region:Yorkshire and The Humber", "income:spline1", "income:spline2", "income:spline3", "employment:spline1", "employment:spline2", "employment:spline3", "education:spline1", "education:spline2", "education:spline3" ], "mean": [ 7.277628112929147, 0.3116795160835884, 0.1526539478913407, 0.7673111389658688, 13.827968314848516, 2021.2, -3.148263341184053 ], "scale": [ 1.2958608381563763, 0.03194734350680609, 0.037631530841192015, 0.03601945389813692, 0.33537570446913945, 2.315167380558035, 0.39115560021582974 ], "referenceRegion": "East Midlands", "trainingRegionShares": { "East Midlands": 0.06015037593984962, "East of England": 0.08270676691729323, "London": 0.24812030075187969, "North East": 0.07518796992481203, "North West": 0.16541353383458646, "South East": 0.13533834586466165, "South West": 0.05263157894736842, "West Midlands": 0.09022556390977443, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 0.09022556390977443 }, "unseenRegion": "Training-row-weighted average regional effect", "historyPriorRatePer100k": 0.038252981379281084, "historyPriorExposureIn100kMiles": 9347.0, "socialTransforms": { "income": { "knots": [ 0.044, 0.12233333333333332, 0.17, 0.276 ], "degreesOfFreedom": 3, "linearTails": true, "mean": [ 0.1473052631578947, 0.14396251412558772, 0.022762691159378692 ], "scale": [ 0.04931511430195569, 0.1619421288534172, 0.04185031690586494 ] }, "employment": { "knots": [ 0.038, 0.094, 0.13166666666666665, 0.233 ], "degreesOfFreedom": 3, "linearTails": true, "mean": [ 0.11356240601503717, 0.10256165448913188, 0.018765130087805143 ], "scale": [ 0.039285300397143445, 0.13062006018921912, 0.03752782725300204 ] }, "education": { "knots": [ 0.06720947446336048, 0.19964893872607906, 0.246239806704923, 0.351653441067862 ], "degreesOfFreedom": 3, "linearTails": true, "mean": [ 0.22382032956566403, 0.22070949721136274, 0.016067362521372804 ], "scale": [ 0.05418584021190158, 0.18667933945837364, 0.02847822791707737 ] } }, "referenceDecile": 5 }, "coefficients": [ -3.132818201341866, 0.21104949736656825, -0.06071808755987072, -0.014279883728356361, -0.03234002281412412, -0.11474098980430958, -0.023947964173268416, 0.47253229198464536, 0.12860645477891589, 0.21428861885323114, -0.20279478335964762, -0.07532804417936687, 0.10452202713745168, 0.10084297956177153, -0.07524521165649764, 0.08834596473984269, -0.06763777001366895, 0.22448175514336072, -0.03251806954088494, 0.2903965915021031, -0.741289235998969, 0.40068591770131634, -0.3698390544790599, 0.556732281091467, -0.25583074641281706 ] }, { "model": "DE", "status": "converged", "columns": 43, "rank": 43, "diagnostics": { "alpha": 0.02702256296964207, "converged": true, "gradientMax": 0.002172364072826218, "iterations": 168, "negativeLogLikelihood": 3941.3660789712962 }, "transform": { "featureNames": [ "intercept", "logDensity2011", "ageUnder25Share2011", "age65PlusShare2011", "lagCarTaxiShare", "lagLogMilesPerRoadKm", "year", "logHistoryRate", "region:East of England", "region:London", "region:North East", "region:North West", "region:South East", "region:South West", "region:West Midlands", "region:Yorkshire and The Humber", "income:decile1", "income:decile2", "income:decile3", "income:decile4", "income:decile6", "income:decile7", "income:decile8", "income:decile9", "income:decile10", "employment:decile1", "employment:decile2", "employment:decile3", "employment:decile4", "employment:decile6", "employment:decile7", "employment:decile8", "employment:decile9", "employment:decile10", "education:decile1", "education:decile2", "education:decile3", "education:decile4", "education:decile6", "education:decile7", "education:decile8", "education:decile9", "education:decile10" ], "mean": [ 7.277628112929147, 0.3116795160835884, 0.1526539478913407, 0.7673111389658688, 13.827968314848516, 2021.2, -3.148263341184053 ], "scale": [ 1.2958608381563763, 0.03194734350680609, 0.037631530841192015, 0.03601945389813692, 0.33537570446913945, 2.315167380558035, 0.39115560021582974 ], "referenceRegion": "East Midlands", "trainingRegionShares": { "East Midlands": 0.06015037593984962, "East of England": 0.08270676691729323, "London": 0.24812030075187969, "North East": 0.07518796992481203, "North West": 0.16541353383458646, "South East": 0.13533834586466165, "South West": 0.05263157894736842, "West Midlands": 0.09022556390977443, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 0.09022556390977443 }, "unseenRegion": "Training-row-weighted average regional effect", "historyPriorRatePer100k": 0.038252981379281084, "historyPriorExposureIn100kMiles": 9347.0, "socialTransforms": {}, "referenceDecile": 5 }, "coefficients": [ -3.023724773740505, 0.24495500875162865, -0.1406302552417413, -0.1048601512337013, -0.04066872004661022, -0.10117130709755069, -0.027348976305525942, 0.5210207415113104, 0.09356033331241691, 0.1503727282825845, -0.2525982202428262, -0.13391801432822756, 0.045152829569554846, 0.07356354451560124, -0.13256550102441683, 0.005241177538574657, 0.1392044271241512, 0.10315719718444871, 0.024958937479436873, -0.023313605288306845, 0.08781511109709113, 0.12808019546731675, 0.04798018849301973, 0.2551771450895105, 0.28613595229254757, -0.06841699521699875, 0.001557552748443262, 0.03836496661442614, -0.019599380629583, 0.026995048476036752, -0.046187816076001885, -0.04358774621080114, -0.06394300702075408, -0.1654377529170364, -0.0581367490722458, -0.0360517286235676, -0.14658531850346096, -0.04318388003620078, -0.10236429271345521, -0.18297397281878766, -0.19447881652510882, -0.2335442988586161, -0.27479538712501034 ] }, { "model": "Q", "status": "converged", "columns": 28, "rank": 28, "diagnostics": { "alpha": 0.028354882862616292, "converged": true, "gradientMax": 0.002521531720893511, "iterations": 104, "negativeLogLikelihood": 3957.3112961439633 }, "transform": { "featureNames": [ "intercept", "logDensity2011", "ageUnder25Share2011", "age65PlusShare2011", "lagCarTaxiShare", "lagLogMilesPerRoadKm", "year", "logHistoryRate", "region:East of England", "region:London", "region:North East", "region:North West", "region:South East", "region:South West", "region:West Midlands", "region:Yorkshire and The Humber", "income:quintile1", "income:quintile2", "income:quintile4", "income:quintile5", "employment:quintile1", "employment:quintile2", "employment:quintile4", "employment:quintile5", "education:quintile1", "education:quintile2", "education:quintile4", "education:quintile5" ], "mean": [ 7.277628112929147, 0.3116795160835884, 0.1526539478913407, 0.7673111389658688, 13.827968314848516, 2021.2, -3.148263341184053 ], "scale": [ 1.2958608381563763, 0.03194734350680609, 0.037631530841192015, 0.03601945389813692, 0.33537570446913945, 2.315167380558035, 0.39115560021582974 ], "referenceRegion": "East Midlands", "trainingRegionShares": { "East Midlands": 0.06015037593984962, "East of England": 0.08270676691729323, "London": 0.24812030075187969, "North East": 0.07518796992481203, "North West": 0.16541353383458646, "South East": 0.13533834586466165, "South West": 0.05263157894736842, "West Midlands": 0.09022556390977443, "Yorkshire and The Humber": 0.09022556390977443 }, "unseenRegion": "Training-row-weighted average regional effect", "historyPriorRatePer100k": 0.038252981379281084, "historyPriorExposureIn100kMiles": 9347.0 }, "coefficients": [ -3.0366920955563836, 0.2283413828910585, -0.12282834478306867, -0.09348591555415411, -0.03767872255390073, -0.10319172400590312, -0.024619872225150684, 0.5351294691452949, 0.10970666003443719, 0.15418203409705414, -0.22464803491916757, -0.11842640435711722, 0.0536833718348558, 0.0625991736036415, -0.10928647671864707, 0.013596453658748751, 0.05098130104580202, -0.029002600850501225, 0.047540546103670846, 0.17635421379459051, -0.016261730212646937, 0.012928387235472214, -0.050356279771929656, -0.097882156153501, -0.011337835421242235, -0.0625953521183557, -0.10683649697218531, -0.17448754065122626 ] } ] }, "foldGroups": [ { "fold": "temporal-2023", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "temporal-2024", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "temporal-2025", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "spatial-East Midlands", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "spatial-East of England", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "spatial-London", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "spatial-North East", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "spatial-North West", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "spatial-South East", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "spatial-South West", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "spatial-West Midlands", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 }, { "fold": "spatial-Yorkshire and The Humber", "ratio": 1.0, "groups": { "income": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "employment": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ], "education": [ [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ] ] }, "socialParameters": 0 } ], "stability": { "income": [ { "afterDecile": 1, "retainedFraction": 0.010050251256281407, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 2, "retainedFraction": 0.005025125628140704, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 3, "retainedFraction": 0.005025125628140704, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 4, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 5, "retainedFraction": 0.005025125628140704, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 6, "retainedFraction": 0.005025125628140704, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 7, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 8, "retainedFraction": 0.010050251256281407, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 9, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 } ], "employment": [ { "afterDecile": 1, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 2, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 3, "retainedFraction": 0.005025125628140704, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 4, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 5, "retainedFraction": 0.005025125628140704, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 6, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 7, "retainedFraction": 0.010050251256281407, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 8, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 9, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 } ], "education": [ { "afterDecile": 1, "retainedFraction": 0.010050251256281407, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 2, "retainedFraction": 0.005025125628140704, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 3, "retainedFraction": 0.010050251256281407, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 4, "retainedFraction": 0.010050251256281407, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 5, "retainedFraction": 0.005025125628140704, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 6, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 7, "retainedFraction": 0.01507537688442211, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 8, "retainedFraction": 0.01507537688442211, "validRefits": 199 }, { "afterDecile": 9, "retainedFraction": 0.0, "validRefits": 199 } ] }, "effectIntervals": { "income": [ { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 } ], "employment": [ { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 } ], "education": [ { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 }, { "lower95": 0.0, "upper95": 0.0, "validReplicates": 199, "requiredReplicates": 199 } ] }, "bandCountDistribution": { "income": [ { "bands": 1, "refits": 196 }, { "bands": 2, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 3, "refits": 2 }, { "bands": 4, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 5, "refits": 1 }, { "bands": 6, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 7, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 8, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 9, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 10, "refits": 0 } ], "employment": [ { "bands": 1, "refits": 197 }, { "bands": 2, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 3, "refits": 2 }, { "bands": 4, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 5, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 6, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 7, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 8, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 9, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 10, "refits": 0 } ], "education": [ { "bands": 1, "refits": 196 }, { "bands": 2, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 3, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 4, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 5, "refits": 1 }, { "bands": 6, "refits": 2 }, { "bands": 7, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 8, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 9, "refits": 0 }, { "bands": 10, "refits": 0 } ] }, "bootstrap": { "replicates": 199, "complete": 199, "regionBlocks": 9, "failedReplicates": [], "selectedRatioCounts": [ { "ratio": 1.0, "refits": 196 }, { "ratio": 0.3, "refits": 3 }, { "ratio": 0.1, "refits": 0 }, { "ratio": 0.03, "refits": 0 }, { "ratio": 0.01, "refits": 0 }, { "ratio": 0.003, "refits": 0 }, { "ratio": 0.0, "refits": 0 } ], "rankDeficientSelectedFits": 0, "rankDeficientComparatorFits": 108, "failedPathFits": 0 }, "limitations": [ "Authority groupings cannot be applied to LSOAs without separate validation. LSOA matched all-road mileage remains unavailable.", "Correlated area characteristics, omitted historical joint road-class/rurality exposure and retrospective cohort selection remain limitations.", "No significance-based adjacent testing. A merged pair is not proof of equal underlying risk.", "No fresh confirmation: retain existing prospective 2027\u20132029 reserve and access audit.", "Bootstrap coefficient intervals are exploratory refit summaries, not post-selection confidence guarantees." ] }