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No confirmatory or future-year validation claim.","models":{"raw":"Parking alone, no year/region controls; explanatory comparison","urban":"Rurality, density and density squared, trunk mileage share, car/HGV/van mileage shares, log miles per road-km, year and region, plus parking","expanded":"Urban model plus income deprivation, no qualifications, young/older resident shares, detached/terraced/flat shares and zero-/two-plus-car household shares","interaction":"Expanded plus parking × (urban population share − 0.5)","network":"Expanded plus log(1 + junctions/km²); April 2026 snapshot, retrospective sensitivity only"},"family":"Negative binomial NB2, maximum likelihood; log(vehicle miles / 100,000) offset. Fixed tiny ridge 1e-6 on non-intercept coefficients for numerical stability; no hyperparameter tuning.","parking":"Continuous proportion; association reported per +10 percentage points. Both off-street and inside-garage shares, all 27 Phase 2 variants. Housing/car inputs also enter the baseline; a derived parking score is not independently observed behaviour.","cohort":"Same complete authorities in every stage and variant, fixed over 2021–2025. No imputation. Extra exclusions listed.","spatialValidation":"Leave one of nine English regions out; all years for its authorities held together. Scaling learned in training only. Unseen-region effects use the training-authority-weighted mean. Every held-out observation gets one prediction per model. This is spatial transfer using retrospectively available inputs, not future prediction.","uncertainty":"Full-fit coefficient intervals use an authority-cluster sandwich including the NB dispersion parameter; fixed-shape specification and measurement error not covered. CV gain intervals resample nine region loss blocks 2,000 times: descriptive instability intervals, not independent confirmatory inference.","metrics":"Percentage reduction in held-out Poisson deviance versus the same-sample baseline, plus observed/expected and exposure-weighted absolute rate error. Positive gain improves prediction; negative gain worsens it. No scenario selected as best.","adjustedCurve":"Observed / expected (expanded baseline WITHOUT parking, full-sample fitted) × the cohort pooled rate. This indirect standardisation is descriptive and in-sample. Conditional Poisson intervals ignore uncertainty in expected counts; they are not causal effect intervals.","ruralGroups":"Analyst-defined population bands: urban >=80% urban residents, mixed 50–<80%, rural <50%. Quintiles within groups of at least 15 authorities; smaller groups show pooled rates only. Ties kept together. Resident rurality is not road-mileage rurality.","nonTrunk":"Separate reference-model sensitivity with TRA8903 mileage × 1,000,000 and canonical STATS19 trunk flag 2. Require zero unknown trunk flags across all five years per authority; compare to all-road fits on this identical subcohort. Non-trunk is not synonymous with residential.","unknown":"Parked and other endpoints are recorded lower counts. Unknown involvement remains separately tabulated and is never reclassified as other. Additional reference sensitivity assigns all unresolved cases to each endpoint separately.","limits":"No new LSOA mileage. Injury collisions only. Parking use unvalidated; 2021 households and 2024 parking provision are retrospectively applied. Network snapshot is 2026. No claim of year-ahead validity, causation, or driver-level demographic effects."},"scenarios":[{"id":"constrained","label":"Constrained capacity","garageUse":0.25,"garageExtraSpaces":0,"otherSpaces":1,"topCars":4},{"id":"reference","label":"Reference assumptions","garageUse":0.5,"garageExtraSpaces":1,"otherSpaces":1,"topCars":3.5},{"id":"ample","label":"Ample capacity","garageUse":0.75,"garageExtraSpaces":2,"otherSpaces":2,"topCars":3}],"associations":[{"id":"independent","label":"Independent housing and cars"},{"id":"positive","label":"More cars in higher-provision housing"},{"id":"negative","label":"More cars in lower-provision housing"}],"bases":[{"id":"offStreet","label":"Modelled off-street vehicle share"},{"id":"garage","label":"Modelled inside-garage vehicle share"}],"endpoints":[{"id":"all","label":"All injury collisions"},{"id":"parked","label":"Recorded parked involvement"},{"id":"other","label":"Recorded no parked 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