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English authority analysis on ALL public roads. Numerator: all police-reported injury collisions, including non-motor-only collisions; denominator: DfT all-motor vehicle miles. This is an area-level event frequency measure, not per-driver collision probability or a matched residential/motor-only cohort.","geography":"LSOA21 estimates are assigned using the ONS UTLA23 best-fit lookup. Exact authority codes join to current-highway-authority collision counts and year-specific traffic. No LSOA mileage is inferred. Barnsley and Sheffield code differences remain excluded rather than name-matched.","cohort":"Balanced authority cohort with valid parking lookup and collision/mileage reconciliation in every year 2021–2025. An authority failing any year is excluded from every year, avoiding changing composition. No outcome magnitude is used to select deciles.","parking":"For each authority, sum modelled off-street (or inside-garage) vehicles over LSOAs and divide by total modelled vehicles. Reuse all 27 frozen Phase 2 variants at their published numeric precision. These parking shares are unvalidated proxies.","deciles":"Rank the fixed included authorities by parking share with equal authority weights. Cutpoints at ceil(N*d/10); ties stay together in the lower decile. Freeze the same membership across years within each scenario. These are AUTHORITY deciles, not the Phase 2 LSOA deciles.","rates":"100,000 * summed collisions / summed motor vehicle miles on the same included authority-years. Never average authority rates. Unknown parking status remains in total collisions and mileage; recorded parked involvement is a lower count, with an upper sensitivity count assuming every unresolved case involved a parked vehicle.","uncertainty":"Per-decile 95% exact Poisson (Garwood) intervals condition on fixed traffic estimates and ignore spatial clustering/overdispersion. D10/D1 also has a 95% percentile authority bootstrap: 2,000 samples within the two fixed bins, with all years for an authority resampled together. Neither interval covers parking measurement error, traffic estimation error or systematic under-reporting.","contrast":"D10/D1 = highest-parking decile rate divided by lowest-parking decile rate. Poisson ratio interval uses log-rate approximation. No hypothesis-selection correction or causal interpretation. The scenario envelope is not a confidence interval.","london":"Additional pooled sensitivity removes London and re-ranks the remainder. This checks geographic concentration, not confounding adjustment. Urbanity, road mix, deprivation, housing and vehicle ownership still require Phase 4 controls.","time":"Retrospective descriptive comparison: 2024 EHS rates are applied to 2021 household populations, then compared with 2021–2025 outcomes. Annual consistency is not out-of-time predictive validation. 2021 is pandemic-affected.","limits":"STATS19 excludes damage-only collisions. A parked vehicle being involved does not establish contact, fault or causation. Missing involvement coding varies by authority/year. Residential LSOA frequency and independently observed garage-use effects remain untested."},"sources":[{"title":"Phase 1 collision and parked-involvement audit","path":"/research/parking/v1/audit.json","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/road-safety-open-data","period":"2021–2025"},{"title":"Phase 2 frozen parking scenarios","path":"/research/parking/v2/all-scenarios.csv.gz","url":"/data-lab/parking?version=v2","period":"2021 households; 2024 provision"},{"title":"RAS0403: collisions and casualties by local authority","path":"/geo-evidence/ac551fbf73f4b8ccb11dbfbdbf8bc312be2f897d3103260c1552483d602259d2.ods","url":"https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a873ca186d9b627c475bfd8/ras0403.ods","period":"2016–2025"},{"title":"Local authority motor vehicle mileage","path":"/geo-evidence/058a61b9f6f7d07a9363c339829c6723fdecc4270f500611d1790eae6da7b9fc.csv","url":"https://storage.googleapis.com/dft-statistics/road-traffic/downloads/data-gov-uk/local_authority_traffic.csv","period":"2016–2025"},{"title":"ONS LSOA21 → UTLA23 best-fit lookup","path":"/social-factors-evidence/ed9df54f94c0c21f4a2b7e637e418d131a2230abc14ddaa048a28f37bf44f976.csv.gz","url":"https://open-geography-portalx-ons.hub.arcgis.com/api/download/v1/items/1c727fa44989421dbe2dff1a9f5fb25e/csv?layers=0","period":"LSOA 2021 / authority 2023"}],"build":{"script":"build-parking-phase3.py","scriptSha256":"d952853f87099a9fb89990382f9ed8e8ad5d740361cba127ed32a910f29674a4","inputManifestSha256":"151a46f21487dbfcf0fcfc6f05ac365b86c07c54ad0f7df3c3187e1204b68581","numpyVersion":"2.3.5","scipyVersion":"1.17.0","bootstrapSamples":2000,"seed":20261010}}