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Other locations are not all on street. No confidence intervals available in this table."},"provisionBenchmark":{"source":"EHS DA2203","householdOffStreetPct":66.19999999999999,"modeledPct":68.726},"sources":[{"title":"Census TS044","path":"/research/parking/v2/inputs/census2021-ts044.zip","url":"https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/output/census/2021/census2021-ts044.zip","period":"2021-03-21","sha256":"af7b512615ea9d27ad0b2cec715a6cd4b50832482e0f38ca640c906c352f91bd","bytes":3077120,"extracted":{"member":"census2021-ts044-lsoa.csv","memberSha256":"b6117cf4813b5f46403477f28ab703f8b2a1ecb2d30aa817e34f457ab6cff1dd","columns":["date","geography","geography code","Accommodation type: Total: All households","Accommodation type: Detached","Accommodation type: Semi-detached","Accommodation type: Terraced","Accommodation type: In a purpose-built block of flats or tenement","Accommodation type: Part of a converted or shared house, including bedsits","Accommodation type: Part of another converted building, for example, former school, church or warehouse","Accommodation type: In a commercial building, for example, in an office building, hotel or over a shop","Accommodation type: A caravan or other mobile or temporary structure"]},"license":"Open Government Licence v3.0"},{"title":"Census TS045","path":"/research/parking/v2/inputs/census2021-ts045.zip","url":"https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/output/census/2021/census2021-ts045.zip","period":"2021-03-21","sha256":"95593dcd53247d4458e97edd7454577a63e47fd43be957f0a2460e872efdc070","bytes":2657395,"extracted":{"member":"census2021-ts045-lsoa.csv","memberSha256":"b95f7d78b00db1a569beafe3558e4ef47ebfc0390dfba8c2c2603403f6bf6c5e","columns":["date","geography","geography code","Number of cars or vans: Total: All households","Number of cars or vans: No cars or vans in household","Number of cars or vans: 1 car or van in household","Number of cars or vans: 2 cars or vans in household","Number of cars or vans: 3 or more cars or vans in household"]},"license":"Open Government Licence v3.0"},{"title":"EHS DA2201","path":"/research/parking/v1/inputs/ehs-da2201.ods","url":"https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a4d8ccb895317eadc35450c/DA2201_Parking_and_mains_gas_-_dwellings.ods","period":"2024","sha256":"d2bd11811c9dd8da846c0be8aa27db7382977263575318384c07810b78d5e2e9","bytes":130059,"extracted":{"sheet":"2024"},"license":"Open Government Licence v3.0"},{"title":"NTS0908","path":"/research/parking/v1/inputs/nts0908.ods","url":"https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a9ed429474b8101ece46446/nts0908.ods","period":"2024","sha256":"49f6044306df47428c8fd3a93053e8f01dae23425d6eb8c045d9ebc773a1a1fe","bytes":16209,"extracted":{"sheet":"NTS0908"},"license":"Open Government Licence v3.0"},{"title":"EHS DA2203","path":"/research/parking/v2/inputs/ehs-da2203.ods","url":"https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a4d8cfe92f65594cb029995/DA2203_Parking_and_mains_gas_-_households.ods","period":"2024","sha256":"cf7a27a9a5e0a5ba1b2fad109e06d285ba909914add67cb55c02b1f98791a1f8","bytes":145366,"extracted":{"sheet":"2024"},"license":"Open Government Licence v3.0"}],"housingTypes":["Detached (including bungalows)","Semi-detached (including bungalows)","Terraced (including bungalows)","Purpose-built flat","Converted/shared house","Other converted building","Commercial building","Caravan/mobile structure"],"mapping":[{"type":"Detached (including bungalows)","garagePct":78.5,"otherOffStreetPct":20.6},{"type":"Semi-detached (including bungalows)","garagePct":41.8,"otherOffStreetPct":43.2},{"type":"Terraced (including bungalows)","garagePct":14.5,"otherOffStreetPct":34.2},{"type":"Purpose-built flat","garagePct":5.979,"otherOffStreetPct":31.292},{"type":"Converted/shared house","garagePct":2.9,"otherOffStreetPct":25.0},{"type":"Other converted building","garagePct":2.9,"otherOffStreetPct":25.0},{"type":"Commercial building","garagePct":2.9,"otherOffStreetPct":25.0},{"type":"Caravan/mobile structure","garagePct":33.5,"otherOffStreetPct":32.6}],"methodology":{"geography":"England; Census 2021 LSOAs","reference":"2021 household counts with 2024 EHS provision rates; no annual backcast","householdReconciliation":"Scale TS044 type counts proportionally to each TS045 household total. Preserve both published totals and their difference.","joint":"Independent within each LSOA by default. Positive/negative rank couplings preserve both margins, concentrating more cars in higher/lower-provision types; they are stress tests, not joint Census observations.","capacity":"For n vehicles, garage-use probability u and d extra spaces, garage-provision off-street capacity is u[min(n,1)+min(max(n−1,0),d)]+(1−u)min(n,d). Other off-street provision accommodates min(n,o). Apply these to synthetic household counts.","residual":"Total modeled household vehicles minus off-street vehicles. This is street-or-other demand, not observed street parking. No per-km measure without matched residential centreline geometry.","deciles":"Rank eligible English LSOAs by unrounded modeled vehicle off-street share, equal area weights. Cutpoints at ceil(N×d/10). Ties stay together in the lower decile; counts may differ. Re-rank separately for every scenario. Deciles are exposure candidates, not collision findings.","ranges":"27 variants = 3 capacity/use scenarios × 3 housing–car associations × 3 type mappings. Range is a sensitivity envelope, not a probability or confidence interval, and does not span every possible model.","mapping":"House categories use EHS detached/semi/terraced rates, although Census includes bungalows. Purpose-built flats use the EHS population-weighted low/high-rise mix. Converted categories and commercial flats use converted-flat rates; mobile homes use all-dwelling rates. Alternative mappings substitute bungalow/flat extrema and 0–100% provision for commercial/mobile categories.","validation":"National NTS benchmark held out from construction; numerical proximity is not validation. No aligned independent LSOA overnight vehicle-use validation, and no local error, correlation or holdout score is claimed.","interpretation":"A housing/car-derived predictor cannot independently identify a parking effect beyond those ingredients. EHS rates describe provision, not capacity or use. Garage-use assumptions are not estimated from observed local behaviour."},"build":{"script":"build-parking-phase2.py","scriptSha256":"06e3d6cf5593cb64fc1d18bc1a758712d84ccfc82f0a8a00bfd968fcba506154"},"validationRegister":[{"title":"Coventry · Earlsdon parking beat survey","url":"https://www.coventry.gov.uk/roads-highways-pavements/earlsdon-traffic-data/7","checkedAt":"2026-10-10","status":"Reviewed; not comparable","detail":"Hourly beats, 06:00–24:00, weekday and Saturday, selected streets. Published percentages measure occupied spaces, not resident-vehicle parking shares. No matched LSOA denominator or full overnight coverage."},{"title":"Bristol · March 2025 parking survey package","url":"https://www.bristol.gov.uk/ask/projects/south-bristol-liveable-neighbourhood/key-dates-and-reports-sbln","checkedAt":"2026-10-10","status":"Identified; download blocked","detail":"Council describes daytime/night-time occupancy surveys. ZIP retrieval returned HTTP 403 in this run. Raw observations and exact LSOA/road matching were not verified."}]}