ENGLAND & WALES — F7 ADDITIONAL-FEATURE COLLISION SCREEN Release ew-f7-v1 | 13 October 2026 | Retrospective development evidence RESULT Two source-admitted features tested; nine candidates explicitly untested. Public transport access-site density: retained for F8 joint testing, with 3.56% temporal and 3.43% pooled geographic deviance improvement (mean 3.49%), 9/10 regions positive. Road-weighted heavy-rain days: uncertain; 0.24% temporal and -0.69% geographic gain (mean -0.23%); 5/10 regions positive; FDR q=0.0745. The same-observation sensitivity gives the same conclusion. These are relative Poisson-deviance gains, not percentage reductions in accidents or claim costs. The expanded ranking has 30 novel candidates (28 original plus two F7), with ten original baseline-form diagnostics recorded separately. Access-site density ranks 12/30 and heavy rain 24/30 on the equal-weight primary mean. Original results, q-values and test-family definitions are unchanged. Different feature cohorts mean that small cross-feature ranking differences are descriptive. There are now 16 retained single-feature candidates across the two releases. F8 joint testing, joint indices and F9 report refresh are not implemented here. NATIONAL BANDS AND COHORTS All 35,672 England and Wales LSOA2021 areas retain the frozen F6 national values, bands and missingness. No local/fold/cohort deciles or substituted values are created. Eligible zero-collision observations stay in the models. The full panel has 142,688 LSOA-years (2022–25). The baseline requires valid positive mileage under all three national exposure scenarios and complete baseline controls. Feature-specific eligible counts and exclusions appear in every card and the cohort-coverage export. National coverage is 35,646 access-site LSOAs and 35,365 heavy-rain LSOAs; all unavailable areas remain in the upstream national lookup. The common development cohort comprises 32,789 LSOAs / 65,578 observations. The two single-feature models and their baselines are independently refitted on this same intersection; no joint feature model or additional FDR is implied. FROZEN METHODS See specification.json and the approved STATS19 Additional Features Phased Plan. Baseline: frozen Phase4 rich_poisson implementation, refit on exactly the same rows as the candidate in every fold. Outcome: distinct motor-involved police-recorded injury collisions at collision location. Offset log(miles/100000). 2022 fit -> 2023 prediction; ten leave-one-region-out folds across 2022–2023 (nine English regions and Wales), pooled out-of-fold geographic deviance. Higher national band means more of the feature, not automatically more risk. Categorical bands are the sole primary representation. Continuous linear and restricted cubic spline forms are secondary: log1p access-site density, identity heavy-rain days; training scaling and knots refit inside each fold. Rank = (temporal relative deviance gain + pooled geographic relative deviance gain) / 2. Gain = 1 - candidate deviance / same-cohort baseline deviance. Raw frequency = SUM(collisions) / SUM(miles) * 100000, not mean local rates. O/E is observed / expected collisions. Geographic calibration remains imperfect: the access-site primary model's pooled geographic O/E is about 1.134. Better relative deviance does not itself resolve baseline calibration or exposure bias. One final-development categorical omnibus cluster-Wald test per primary candidate. Benjamini–Hochberg over all eleven candidates; the nine unavailable primary tests contribute conservative p=1 placeholders. Their p/q=1 is not an observed null finding. Original 28-candidate and ten baseline-diagnostic families stay unchanged. Combined 39-candidate sensitivity is deferred until all eleven additions are available; no completed combined-family adjustment is claimed. RETENTION GATES q<=.05; mean primary gain>=1%; positive temporal AND geographic gains; >=7/10 positive regional folds; both conditional gain-interval lower bounds positive; no unsupported held-out categorical bands; positive temporal gain under traffic- group benchmark, road-length exposure and the matched counted-route scope. Uncertain means an estimable feature misses at least one gate while showing some positive primary performance or q<=.05. Unsupported means neither primary gain is positive and q>.05. Untested is kept separate from these dispositions. Untested candidates: schools, claimant rate/change, mean gradient/steep share, heat >=25C / >=30C days, wet-day rainfall intensity and snow-lying days. F6 measurement/coverage decisions cannot be overridden using collisions. UNCERTAINTY, SUPPORT AND SENSITIVITIES Finite-sample corrected cluster sandwich coefficient intervals. Permanent Phase5 blocks union authorities sharing inherited insolvency source areas, including Cumbria successors. Prediction-gain intervals use 1,000 paired block resamples of fixed prediction totals (seed20261012). They omit fitting, selection and exposure uncertainty, and do NOT satisfy the formal E8 promotion gate. Subgroup effects are exploratory. Weak support: <100 rows OR <100 collisions OR <10 independent blocks. Empty/zero-event bands are not given finite effect estimates. Unseen held-out bands fall back to baseline prediction, are flagged unsupported and prevent retention. Read referenceBand in each fit. Alternative-mileage models share the same feature-specific eligible rows and are separately refit. Counted routes use matched route-scope collisions and physical counted mileage, with route-specific baseline road shares. This is a restricted major-road sensitivity, not representative all-road validation. Models, cluster blocks, annual/region/urban effects, raw frequencies and held-out subgroup calibration are retained, including negative and null results. SOURCE VINTAGES AND REMAINING LIMITS Access-site density is a 13 October 2026 NaPTAN snapshot near April2026 mapped roads: physical access sites, not service frequency, ridership, walking or cycling flow. Heavy rain is an interpolated 1991–2020 climate normal: annual count of days >=10mm rain, not actual annual post-pandemic weather. All valid heavy-rain values are estimated grid-normal context; there is no observed-only counterpart on which to run a separate measured-weather test. Exact F6 source metadata is preserved inside cards as frozenSourceMetadata; current descriptive notes clarify the F7 evidence status. The immutable F6 release remains the data provenance. 2024 and 2025 were already inspected and are diagnostics only. No untouched confirmation, as-of-2022 forecast, causal effect, driver-residence effect, insurer- claims validation or pricing factor is established. Mileage allocation remains provisional. Joint incremental value, overlap, shrinkage, earlier-collision comparators, improved calibration and refit/selection uncertainty remain for F8 and subsequent validation. The original paper's hypothesis is not proved here. REPRODUCE Extract reproduce-ew-f7-v1.zip into an empty directory. Use Python3.12 and the pinned requirements.txt (same numerical environment as Phase5). Run: python scripts/reproduce-ew-f7.py The runner checks all input hashes, sets OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=2 and OMP_NUM_THREADS=2, fits all 134 saved models (112 primary/secondary/subgroup/ sensitivity fits plus 22 common-cohort fits), and compares every numerical output SHA256. No network or source re-acquisition is needed. Exact bytes may depend on BLAS/platform versions; investigate every mismatch. The original Phase4/5 code is included unchanged for its frozen design, not rerun as a new release. New implementation uses build-ew-f7.py. All 736 prior public scientific files are pinned in frozen-prior-files.json and checked unchanged before release. FILES register.json / feature-register.csv: all eleven candidates and gate decisions. expanded-ranking.json/csv: 40 tested features; 30 ranked novel candidates and ten baseline form checks. Original family q-values remain original-family values. features/.json: complete evidence cards; models/*.json.gz: fit parameters; blocks/*.csv.gz: paired fixed-prediction uncertainty totals. Do not sum across repeated samples, model forms or scenarios. Common-cohort files include exact membership, metrics, models and blocks. Aggregate exports contain all band relativities, raw frequencies, subgroup calibration and continuous curves. Public data retain the licences/attributions recorded in upstream source registers, including DfT/STATS19, ONS, Met Office and Ordnance Survey derived road context. No insurer claims or policyholder records are used.