MOT Data Lab | Johan Strydom

Mileage evidence

December 2024–December 2025 · Great Britain · 1,268,479 matched vehicles

1,268,479Matched vehicles

7.9×P90 ÷ P10 interval mileage

45.0%Miles driven by the highest-use 20%

Annualised mileage between tests

December 2024–December 2025 · Great Britain · 1,268,479 matched vehicles

P101,748miles per year

Median5,981miles per year

P9013,803miles per year

The 90th percentile is 7.9 times the 10th percentile in this matched cohort. Percentiles describe vehicle use, not claim frequency.

Definitions and coverage

P10, median and P90 are points in the annualised mileage distribution. The matched cohort compares recorded odometer readings between normal tests. Coverage, fuel and vehicle class definitions differ from the separate roadworthiness build; neither result measures insurance claims.

National mileage transitions

National Class 4 records · 2022-01-01–2025-12-31 · Published roadworthiness cohort

Two consecutive observed mileage intervals, reconstructed from three normal tests. Rows describe earlier use; columns describe later use. Both intervals use the same vehicle.

Final test yearFuelAge at final testInterval eligibility

24,881,848Observed eligible transitions

67.3%Remain in the same mileage band

Annualised miles. Each supported row sums to 100% before rounding; percentages require at least 100 transitions in that row.
Earlier → Later	0–<5,000	5,000–<10,000	10,000–<15,000	15,000–<20,000	20,000+	Row count
0–<5,000	80.0% 8,729,760 records	16.1% 1,753,523 records	2.7% 298,041 records	0.7% 79,749 records	0.4% 48,687 records	10,909,760
5,000–<10,000	22.3% 2,052,336 records	64.3% 5,909,746 records	11.2% 1,030,889 records	1.6% 143,799 records	0.6% 58,214 records	9,194,984
10,000–<15,000	8.0% 267,874 records	34.6% 1,160,122 records	47.0% 1,572,827 records	8.5% 286,359 records	1.9% 62,227 records	3,349,409
15,000–<20,000	6.6% 61,863 records	16.2% 152,855 records	33.7% 316,872 records	33.8% 318,378 records	9.7% 91,047 records	941,015
20,000+	6.9% 33,634 records	11.0% 53,574 records	14.5% 70,395 records	21.3% 103,885 records	46.3% 225,192 records	486,680

This is conditional on observing three usable tests. It is not a transition estimate for all national vehicles, and missing or absent tests are not zero-mileage journeys or scrappage. Early years have less prior history; changing coverage must not be read as a population trend.

Full-build eligibility and review

Three consecutive observed completed normal Class 4 tests; two non-decreasing odometer intervals of 180–730 days (270–450 sensitivity); unique test dates at all endpoints; same eligible fuel; one existing cohort anchor per vehicle/year. Five-thousand-mile annualised bands with a 20,000+ tail. Non-return and missing observations are unresolved.

fewer than three observed tests: 63,188,874 cohort anchors
interval outside 180–730 days: 2,622,467 cohort anchors
decreasing odometer: 207,099 cohort anchors
valid: 48,288,081 cohort anchors
missing eligible odometer: 3,166,063 cohort anchors
ambiguous test date: 64,664 cohort anchors

These controls cover the full build, before the display filters above. Review: Johan Strydom, 2026-09-26.

Conditional on three observed usable tests, not the national vehicle stock or every insured driver.
Vehicle identity follows the DVSA source; no cross-source or household linkage.
Age is measured at the final anchor. Annualised use is an interval estimate, not a full calendar-year mileage total.
Overlapping histories share vehicles; do not treat transitions as independent insurance claims or infer scrappage.
Both intervals share the middle odometer reading; measurement error can create apparent reversals in mileage.
Non-decreasing odometer jumps remain in the main estimate; the 20,000+ band is an open tail.
Early source years have limited prior histories and can overrepresent frequent testers; changes in coverage are not a population trend.

Audited roadworthiness

Separate reviewed raw-data build · 2022-01-01–2025-12-31. Compare failures at the same age and mileage.

MOT DATA LAB / ROADWORTHINESS

Does the difference persist?

Compare roadworthiness at the same age and mileage, then test whether the pattern holds across years.

Reviewed analytical build

2022-01-01 to 2025-12-31 · 35,879,674 unique vehicles · 117,537,248 vehicle-years

Release and build identifiers

Evidence release: lens-2026-10-02-3d9ceed6e4d1 · Build: 719eec692a459667

FuelComparatorTest yearFailure definitionComparison basis

Comparison

National Class 4 tests · 2025 · Battery electric / Petrol · separate from the matched December mileage cohort

Initial failures include passes after rectification (PRS). Denominator: first completed normal Class 4 test per vehicle per year. Vehicles with inconsistent fuel codes are excluded across all years; see Data quality and Sensitivity.

Battery electric

24.0%

23.3%–24.8% · 370,464 vehicles

66.5% of fixed reference population · 40 shared strata

Petrol

21.8%

21.8%–21.8% · 10,548,831 vehicles

66.5% of fixed reference population · 40 shared strata

Adjusted difference: 2.2 percentage points (1.5 to 3.0). Higher in this cohort.

Definitions, uncertainty and limits

Coverage starts no earlier than 2022, after DVSA mileage-unit and fuel classification changes. Class 4 is broader than passenger cars. Each vehicle contributes one first completed normal test per year; partial and full retests are excluded from the main rate. This differs from all-test statistics and must not be presented as a direct reproduction without cohort alignment.

Raw and individual-cell intervals use Wilson 95% intervals. Adjusted rates use one frozen reference population and strata with at least 100 vehicles in both fuels in every year. Conservative distribution-free intervals allow a pairwise difference with at least 95% coverage under within-year vehicle independence. Precision does not remove selection bias, make/model confounding or source errors. All intervals are pointwise; exploratory comparisons are not multiplicity-adjusted.

MOT roadworthiness does not measure battery state of health, breakdowns, repairs between tests, software reliability, warranty cost or insurance claim risk. This Lab tests hypotheses; it cannot guarantee a preferred conclusion.

Official DVSA source and data guide ↗

Through The Actuary Lens

Distance travelled is one dimension of exposure. MOT mileage does not identify where or when a vehicle was driven, the keeper’s address, battery health or insurance losses.

Sources & release

Published02/10/2026

Data periodDecember 2024–December 2025; 2022-01-01–2025-12-31 roadworthiness

Changes awaiting review0

Failed source checks0

Source monitoring does not change these published findings. A changed page may contain a document or wording update; it is not an approved new result.

Inspect 10 sources and monitoring details

Analysis validated: 02/10/2026. Missing dates are shown as “Not recorded”.

Source	Source period	Checked in release	Latest check	Monitoring state
Anonymised MOT test and result data	December 2024–December 2025	22/09/2026	22/09/2026	No source issue recorded
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2022-01-01–2022-12-31	Not recorded	Not recorded	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2023-01-01–2023-12-31	Not recorded	Not recorded	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-01-01–2024-01-31	Not recorded	Not recorded	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-01-01–2025-01-31	Not recorded	Not recorded	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2022-01-01–2022-12-31	Not recorded	Not recorded	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2023-01-01–2023-12-31	Not recorded	Not recorded	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2024-01-01–2024-01-31	Not recorded	Not recorded	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2025-01-01–2025-01-31	Not recorded	Not recorded	No live check linked
DVSA anonymised MOT records	2022-01-01–2025-12-31	Not recorded	Not recorded	No live check linked

Technical release ID

lens-2026-10-02-3d9ceed6e4d1